My Thoughts on the MLS League Structure

A tough weekend for the Eastern Conference with none of their teams winning.  There is now a definite imbalance between the East and West.  Columbus leads the East with only 34 points.  This point total would be good for only 6th place in the Western conference.  I'm now questioning why the MLS is split into conferences.  The geographic alignment of "East" and "West" should encourage rivalries between conference foes, but since every team plays every other team in the league twice, teams actually play more games against the other conference (18) than against their own conference (16).  Based on the way that teams are seeded in the current playoff structure the MLS Cup will likely feature a matchup of the best team in the league (LA) against the 5th or 6th-best team (whoever comes out of the East).  This is not the marquee matchup that the league needs to generate buzz for the Cup final. 

If the league goes to a single table structure, which every other major soccer league in the world plays, they can seed the playoff teams 1 - 10 strictly on record and increase the likelihood that the two best teams in the league will meet in the MLS Cup final.  It will make the regular season more meaningful because teams will be seeded based on their performance rather than conference alignment.  For example, Colorado currently has the fourth best record in the league.  In a single-table league they would be seeded fourth.  In the current structure, although they have the 4th-best record, the three teams ahead of them are in their conference.  So Colorado has to step aside while the league allocates the next three spots to the top teams from the East, which all have a worse record than Colorado.  So the 4th-best team is relegated to a wild-card slot and has to play an extra-match while the weaker teams from the other conference get a bye.  This is certainly not fair.

With the Montreal joining the league next season, the MLS has a golden opportunity to change their league structure.  Going to a single table will, in my opinion, be better for the league.  Regular season games will be more meaningful because teams will know exactly what they need to do to finish in the top 10.  The playoffs will become more meaningful because we will have matchups based on performance rather than conference alignment.  This will lead to better matchups in the MLS Cup final which should generate more buzz for this championship.

MLS Season Projection

Now that Kansas City has a few home games under their belt, we now have enough data to run projections for the entire season.  So without further ado, here are my projected standings for each conference:



East
Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Philadelphia	34	17	11	6	41	27	14	62
2	New York	34	13	18	3	54	39	15	57
3	Kansas City	34	11	15	8	39	34	5	48
4	Columbus	34	13	9	12	38	35	3	48
5	Chicago	34	5	22	7	38	41	-3	37
6	Houston	34	6	17	11	39	42	-3	35
7	D.C. United	34	5	14	15	48	60	-12	29
8	New England	34	3	13	18	23	43	-20	22
9	Toronto FC	34	2	13	19	29	56	-27	19
West
Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Real Salt Lake	34	18	13	3	42	19	23	67
2	Los Angeles	34	16	16	2	43	27	16	64
3	FC Dallas	34	14	14	6	45	34	11	56
4	Seattle	34	13	17	4	42	33	9	56
5	San Jose	34	10	16	8	48	41	7	46
6	Colorado	34	9	15	10	36	40	-4	42
7	Portland	34	10	7	17	39	61	-22	37
8	Chivas USA	34	5	17	12	41	45	-4	32
9	Vancouver	34	4	17	13	37	47	-10	29

Some questions you may ask me after seeing these projections:

Why do you think Real Salt Lake, currently sitting in 4th place, will beat out Los Angeles to win the West?

1. RSL currently has four matches in hand on Los Angeles (15 matches for RSL vs 19 for LA).
2. RSL has the best goal differential/match of any team in the league (0.6 goals/match).
3. Based on current results, LA has played the easiest schedule in the league so far.  For the remainder of the year, they will have the toughest schedule.
4. RSL crushed LA 4-1 in their first meeting this year.

Why do you think that Kansas City will finish 3rd in the East and earn a playoff berth?

1. Because of the delayed opening of their stadium, 14 of their remaining 19 matches will be at home.
2. KC is undefeated in their first 3 home matches with 2 wins and a draw and only one goal allowed.
3. Although winning only 2 matches in their season-opening 11-game road trip, they finished the trip with 3 draws and a spectacular 4-1 victory at FC Dallas.  In fact they are currently riding a 7-match unbeaten streak.
4. Basically they are the hottest team in the league at the moment and I think they will ride this momentum into a playoff berth.

What are your predictions for the playoffs and MLS Cup?

1. The MLS expanded their playoffs to include 10 teams this season.  The top three teams from each conference automatically qualify.  The four teams with the best overall records that finish outside of their conference's top three also qualify as wild cards.  Based on my projection above, that would be Seattle, Columbus, San Jose and Colorado.  I'm picking Seattle and Columbus to emerge from the wild card round.
2. In the 2nd round I pick RSL to beat Columbus, LA to beat Dallas, Philadelphia to beat Seattle and New York to beat KC.
3. Conference finals:  RSL over LA and Philly over NY.
4. MLS Cup:  RSL over Philadelphia.

The season is only halfway over and there is still a lot of soccer to play, but my early prediction is that Real Salt Lake will win the MLS Cup.