Impact of Relegation from Premier League to Championship

Last week I posted about the promotion of teams from the Championship to the Premier League and how playing at a higher level will impact the stats of those teams.  Now I will take a look at the teams relegated from the Premier League and how their stats are affected when playing at a lower level.

	Points	GF	GA	% Promoted
Premiership Results/Match	0.85	0.97	1.71
Championship Results/Match	1.56	1.46	1.17	27%
Change	0.70	0.49	-0.54

The newly relegated teams score 0.49 more and allow 0.54 fewer goals per match which is an improvement in net goal differential of 1.03 per match.  Teams that are promoted into the Premier League see their goal differential decrease by 1.15 per match so it appears that moving between these two leagues will have about a ±1.1 goal/match impact on goal differential.


Applying the rate changes from the above table to the results of the 2011 relegated teams will give us the following projections for their Championship performance in 2012:

Club	League	Season	Matches	Points	GF	GA
Birmingham	Premier	2010-11	38	39	37	58
	Championship	2011-12	46	80	67	45
Blackpool		2010-11	38	39	55	78
	Championship	2011-12	46	80	89	70
West Ham United	Premier	2010-11	38	33	43	70
	Championship	2011-12	46	72	75	60

The 80 points that I'm projecting for Birmingham and Blackpool will probably not be enough to earn a Top 2 finish and automatic promotion.  Over the past 19 seasons, the teams that finished in the top 2 in the Championship have averaged 90 points.  The teams that have finished second averaged 86 points.  Only 4 teams out of 38 have earned auto-promotion with 80 or fewer points.  I would expect that all three teams will vie for a playoff spot next season.  The average points earned by teams that were promoted through the playoffs is 76.


I noted above that 27% of teams relegated to the Championship are able to turn around and earn promotion the following season.  The rate at which teams promoted to the Premier get relegated the following season is 47%.  So why would relegated teams that are dropping into a lower-level league be less likely to earn promotion?  I think that there are two factors driving this:

1. There are only two automatic promotion spots in the Championship.  The third spot is contested by the four teams ranked 3rd through 6th.  So that's three additional matches that would have to be played (the last of which has to be a victory) to earn promotion.  These teams are pretty comparable so anything can happen and usually does.
2. The loss in income that results from relegation often forces teams to sell key players to help stay profitable at the lower level.  So as talent level diminishes, the chances of earning promotion also diminish.

My early picks for the two promotion spots in 2012 are Reading and Cardiff City.  I expect that the three relegated teams will be in the playoff mix along with Nottingham Forest.

Impact of Promotion from Championship to Premier League - Part II

Yesterday I posted about the changes in promoted teams' stats in their first season in the Premier League.  On average, newly promoted teams reduce goals scored by 0.55/game, increase goals allowed by 0.60/game and reduce their points earned by 0.81/game.  I now want to apply those rates against the Championship stats of the three promoted teams to estimate how they will fare next season.

First, Queens Park Rangers with 88 pts,  71 goals scored and 32 goals allowed.  They averaged 88/46 or 1.91 points/match.  If we reduce this rate by 0.81 then they would earn 1.11 points/match in the Premier League or 42 points over a 38-game season.  This would most likely guarantee survival as only two teams have been relegated with as many as 42 points (Middlesborough 1997 and West Ham 2003) since the league went to 20 teams in 1996.  Their goal scoring rate would decline from 1.54 to 1.00/game or 38 goals.  Goals allowed would increase from 0.70 to 1.30 goals/match or 49 goals for the season.  The table below summarizes each team's projected results:

 

Club	League	Season	Matches	Points	GF	GA
Queens Park Rangers	Championship	2010-11	46	88	71	32
	Premier	2011-12	38	42	38	49
Norwich City	Championship	2010-11	46	84	83	58
	Premier	2011-12	38	39	48	71
Swansea City	Championship	2010-11	46	80	69	43
	Premier	2011-12	38	35	36	58

So I would expect QPR to survive.  The odds for Norwich and Swansea are not as good.  40 points is generally considered the safety threshold, but teams have survived with as little as 34 points (West Brom 2005).  Norwich has a decent chance of avoiding relegation at 39 points but I can't see Swansea  also surviving at 35 points.  Only in 2001 did all three promoted teams avoid relegation.  So my prediction is that QPR will survive, Norwich has a 50/50 chance and Swansea will be relegated.

Premier League Season Wrapup

The season ended on Sunday with Manchester United as champions for the 19th time.  Chelsea and Manchester City rounded out the top three with Arsenal fading into the 4th and final Champions League spot.  Tottenham finished strong to grab 5th place and a spot in the Europa league season.  At the bottom, Birmingham and Blackpool joined West Ham as the teams relegated to the Championship.  Here is a recap of my predictions for the final weekend:

Predicted Score				Actual Score				Pts
Aston Villa	1	Liverpool	1	Aston Villa	1	Liverpool	0	-10
Bolton Wanderers	1	Manchester City	1	Bolton Wanderers	0	Manchester City	2	-10
Everton	1	Chelsea	2	Everton	1	Chelsea	0	-10
Fulham	1	Arsenal	2	Fulham	2	Arsenal	2	-10
Manchester United	3	Blackpool	1	Manchester United	4	Blackpool	2	15
Newcastle  United	3	West Bromwich Albion	2	Newcastle United	3	West Bromwich Albion	3	-10
Stoke City	2	Wigan Athletic	1	Stoke City	0	Wigan Athletic	1	-10
Tottenham Hotspur	2	Birmingham City	1	Tottenham Hotspur	2	Birmingham City	1	30
West Ham United	1	Sunderland	1	West Ham United	0	Sunderland	3	-10
Wolverhampton Wanderers	2	Blackburn Rovers	1	Wolverhampton Wanderers	2	Blackburn Rovers	3	-10
							Total	-35

Not a strong finish for me, predicting only 2 of 10 outcomes correctly and one score correctly.  No more predictions or projections for this league until next season, but stay tuned for more stats as I reveal the best and worst teams in several categories in future posts.

Premier League Wrapup and SRS Rankings

It certainly was an eventful weekend in the city of Manchester.  Manchester United clinched their 19th league championship breaking a tie with Liverpool for most all-time titles.  Manchester City defeated Stoke City on Saturday to win the FA Cup.  This was their 5th cup overall and first since 1969.  These two teams happened to have a rematch on Tuesday which was their rescheduled Premier League match.  Man City thrashed Stoke City 3-0 and moved one point ahead of Arsenal into 3rd place in the league.  The top 3 finishers in the Premier are automatically placed in the group stage of next season's Champions League.  4th place has to play through the qualifying rounds to earn a place in the group stage. 

Man City visits Bolton on Saturday while Arsenal travels to Fulham.  Here are the possible scenarios:

Man City win:  they clinch 3rd place and Arsenal ends up 4th.
Man City draw:  City clinches 3rd with an Arsenal loss or draw.  An Arsenal win gives them 3rd place.
Man City loss:  City clinches 3rd if Arsenal also loses.  Arsenal will clinch 3rd with a win or a draw (due to goal differential tiebreaker).

The 5th spot, which qualifies for the Europa League, is also in play between Tottenham and Liverpool with the Spurs holding a one-point edge.  Tottenham's victory at Liverpool last weekend puts them in the drivers seat.  They host Birmingham on Saturday while Liverpool visits Aston Villa.  These are the scenarios:

Tottenham win:  they clinch 5th place.
Tottenham draw:  Spurs clinch 5th with a Liverpool loss or draw.  Liverpool would need a win to pass them.
Tottenham loss:  Spurs clinch 5th if Liverpool also loses.  Liverpool will clinch 5th with a win or a draw (due to goal differential tiebreaker).

At the bottom of the table West Ham clinched relegation over the weekend and promptly fired their manager.  There are still five teams (Wolves, Blackburn, Birmingham, Blackpool and Wigan) that are in danger of filling the last two relegation spots.  There are myriad scenarios so I won't list them all.  I can say that if there is a winner in the Wolves vs Blackburn match, that team will be safe.  Otherwise, each team's fate is dependent on the outcome of other matches.

The latest SRS rankings are after the jump:

Premier League Weekend Results and Updated Projections

Here is a review of my predictions for the weekend:

Birmingham 2 Sunderland 0 (-10 pts)

Blackpool 1 Wigan Athletic 3 (-10 pts)

Everton 2 Blackburn Rovers 0 (+10 pts)

West Bromwich Albion 1 Chelsea 3 (+10 pts)

West Ham United 1 Aston Villa 2 (-10 pts)

Arsenal 1 Liverpool 1 (-10 pts)
What a strange way to end a match.  Both goals were penalty kicks during the 12(!) minutes of stoppage time at the end of the second half.  Arsenal continues to give away points in the standings, giving up the penalty kick to Liverpool after taking the lead on one of their own.

Newcastle United 0 Manchester United 0 (+20 pts)
I predicted this match would end in a draw, but Man United is probably ruing a missed opportunity to extend their lead at the top.

After the jump, I will have my latest projections for the Premiership.

Premier League Projection 4/4 - Manchester United by a nose

The results of this past weekend will have a huge impact on the projected Premier League table.  Here is my revised projection:

		Overall
Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA		GD	Pts
1	Manchester United	38	23	12	3	83	40		43	81
2	Arsenal	38	24	9	5	76	38		38	81
3	Chelsea	38	23	7	8	69	31		38	76
4	Manchester City	38	20	11	7	61	33		28	71
5	Tottenham Hotspur	38	17	11	10	51	43		8	62
6	Liverpool	38	16	7	15	50	46		4	55
7	Bolton Wanderers	38	12	14	12	53	53		0	50
8	Everton	38	11	16	11	51	52		-1	49
9	Sunderland	38	11	15	12	41	49		-8	48
10	Newcastle United	38	12	11	15	58	58		0	47
11	Aston Villa	38	12	10	16	49	63		-14	46
12	Fulham	38	9	18	11	43	41		2	45
13	Stoke City	38	13	6	19	44	48		-4	45
14	Blackburn Rovers	38	10	11	17	48	62		-14	41
15	West Bromwich Albion	38	10	10	18	53	70		-17	40
16	Wolverhampton Wanderers	38	11	7	20	45	64		-19	40
17	Birmingham City	38	8	15	15	36	54		-18	39
18	West Ham United	38	8	14	16	48	66		-18	38
19	Blackpool	38	9	10	19	54	77		-23	37
20	Wigan Athletic	38	6	16	16	35	62		-27	34

I am now projecting that Man United will hang on to win the title by a thread over Arsenal.  The season will hinge on the showdown between these two teams on May 1st at the Emirates.  In all of my previous projections I expected that Arsenal would win this match based on United's poor road performance and Arsenal's strong home performance.  However, I'm now predicting a draw between these two.  That additional point for United combined with the 4 points Arsenal loses (2 for the United match and 2 for the draw with Blackburn this weekend) brings both teams to 81 points overall.  The first tiebreaker is goal differential and I project United to finish 5 goals better that Arsenal for the season.  Sit tight folks, it's gonna be pretty tense all the way to the finish!

At the other end of the table I have Birmingham pulling clear of relegation by virtue of their victory over Bolton.  West Ham's loss to United, although predicted, was bad enough to hurt their projected performance in home matches so they lose two points and drop back to the danger zone.