MLS Season Projection Week 20

After a weekend full of upsets we have quite a shake-up in the season projection.  Here are the projected standings based on results through week 20:



East
Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Philadelphia	34	13	16	5	42	29	13	55
2	Columbus	34	12	14	8	37	29	8	50
3	New York	34	11	16	7	54	42	12	49
4	D.C. United	34	10	16	8	46	49	-3	46
5	Kansas City	34	8	19	7	45	41	4	43
6	Houston	34	9	13	12	39	40	-1	40
7	Chicago	34	3	20	11	35	44	-9	29
8	New England	34	4	15	15	30	45	-15	27
9	Toronto FC	34	3	13	18	30	60	-30	22
West
Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Los Angeles	34	18	14	2	47	25	22	68
2	Real Salt Lake	34	16	14	4	45	25	20	62
3	FC Dallas	34	16	12	6	43	30	13	60
4	Seattle	34	14	15	5	47	37	10	57
5	Colorado	34	10	17	7	46	42	4	47
6	Chivas USA	34	9	16	9	42	38	4	43
7	San Jose	34	6	15	13	38	47	-9	33
8	Portland	34	9	6	19	39	58	-19	33
9	Vancouver	34	3	13	18	32	52	-20	22

Los Angeles moves ahead of RSL for the Western Conference title and best record in the league.  In the East, Columbus is now projected to finish 2nd with D.C. United moving up to 4th and Kansas City dropping out of the top three into 5th.  I'm now projecting United to make the playoffs as a wild card along with KC.  The MLS Cup final will be Los Angeles vs Philadelphia.  Since it will be played at the Home Depot Center, it will effectively be a home game for the Galaxy so I project them to win the Cup.

MLS Week 16 Predictions

Normally the 4th of July weekend is full of fireworks.  This season in the MLS, not so much.  However, I do expect one match to feature a ton of scoring - Portland vs Kansas City on July 2nd.  Portland is leading the league in goals at home, averaging 1.875 per match.  Jeld-Wen Stadium, Portland's home pitch, has been the highest scoring venue in the league with 3.25 goals per match which is well above the league average of 2.42 per match.  Some claim that the size of their field is a factor.  There may be something to this as Portland is the lowest scoring team in the league on the road (0.429 per match) and also allows the most goals per match on the road (2.143).  On the other side of the pitch, Kansas City's road matches have averaged 3 goals per match which is second only to Chivas (3.125).  Sporting KC is one of the better teams at road scoring and also one of the worst at allowing goals on the road.  So I expect a lot of offense in this match and am predicting a final score of Portland 3 Kansas City 2.

Here are the rest of my predictions for the weekend:



Predicted Score
Toronto FC	1	Vancouver	1
D.C. United	1	Philadelphia	2
FC Dallas	1	Columbus	0
Chivas USA	1	Chicago	1
San Jose	1	New York	1
Colorado	1	Houston	1
Real Salt Lake	2	New England	0
Los Angeles	1	Seattle	1

MLS Season Projection

Now that Kansas City has a few home games under their belt, we now have enough data to run projections for the entire season.  So without further ado, here are my projected standings for each conference:



East
Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Philadelphia	34	17	11	6	41	27	14	62
2	New York	34	13	18	3	54	39	15	57
3	Kansas City	34	11	15	8	39	34	5	48
4	Columbus	34	13	9	12	38	35	3	48
5	Chicago	34	5	22	7	38	41	-3	37
6	Houston	34	6	17	11	39	42	-3	35
7	D.C. United	34	5	14	15	48	60	-12	29
8	New England	34	3	13	18	23	43	-20	22
9	Toronto FC	34	2	13	19	29	56	-27	19
West
Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Real Salt Lake	34	18	13	3	42	19	23	67
2	Los Angeles	34	16	16	2	43	27	16	64
3	FC Dallas	34	14	14	6	45	34	11	56
4	Seattle	34	13	17	4	42	33	9	56
5	San Jose	34	10	16	8	48	41	7	46
6	Colorado	34	9	15	10	36	40	-4	42
7	Portland	34	10	7	17	39	61	-22	37
8	Chivas USA	34	5	17	12	41	45	-4	32
9	Vancouver	34	4	17	13	37	47	-10	29

Some questions you may ask me after seeing these projections:

Why do you think Real Salt Lake, currently sitting in 4th place, will beat out Los Angeles to win the West?

1. RSL currently has four matches in hand on Los Angeles (15 matches for RSL vs 19 for LA).
2. RSL has the best goal differential/match of any team in the league (0.6 goals/match).
3. Based on current results, LA has played the easiest schedule in the league so far.  For the remainder of the year, they will have the toughest schedule.
4. RSL crushed LA 4-1 in their first meeting this year.

Why do you think that Kansas City will finish 3rd in the East and earn a playoff berth?

1. Because of the delayed opening of their stadium, 14 of their remaining 19 matches will be at home.
2. KC is undefeated in their first 3 home matches with 2 wins and a draw and only one goal allowed.
3. Although winning only 2 matches in their season-opening 11-game road trip, they finished the trip with 3 draws and a spectacular 4-1 victory at FC Dallas.  In fact they are currently riding a 7-match unbeaten streak.
4. Basically they are the hottest team in the league at the moment and I think they will ride this momentum into a playoff berth.

What are your predictions for the playoffs and MLS Cup?

1. The MLS expanded their playoffs to include 10 teams this season.  The top three teams from each conference automatically qualify.  The four teams with the best overall records that finish outside of their conference's top three also qualify as wild cards.  Based on my projection above, that would be Seattle, Columbus, San Jose and Colorado.  I'm picking Seattle and Columbus to emerge from the wild card round.
2. In the 2nd round I pick RSL to beat Columbus, LA to beat Dallas, Philadelphia to beat Seattle and New York to beat KC.
3. Conference finals:  RSL over LA and Philly over NY.
4. MLS Cup:  RSL over Philadelphia.

The season is only halfway over and there is still a lot of soccer to play, but my early prediction is that Real Salt Lake will win the MLS Cup.