MLS Week 19 Recap

With apologies to Prince, the MLS on Saturday decided to party like it was 1998.  There were 22 goals scored in six matches, a rate of 3.67 goals/match.  The league has not scored at that rate since '98 when they averaged 3.57 goals per match.  Also, no 0-0 draws on Saturday.  Nice to see the offenses coming back especially when there is a lot of international attention on the league due to the World Football Challenge.

I broke even on my Saturday predictions:



Predicted Score				Actual Score				Points
New York	2	FC Dallas	1	New York	2	FC Dallas	2	-10
Columbus	2	Portland	0	Columbus	1	Portland	0	10
Kansas City	1	Toronto FC	0	Kansas City	4	Toronto FC	2	10
Colorado	2	New England	1	Colorado	2	New England	2	-10
Real Salt Lake	2	San Jose	1	Real Salt Lake	4	San Jose	0	10
Chivas USA	1	Houston	1	Chivas USA	3	Houston	0	-10
						Total		0

On outcomes I am now at 50% for July and 43% for the season.  For scores my accuracy is at 10.5% for July and 10.0% for the year.

MLS Scoring Drought - Another Theory

I have written about this before and Steve Davis of SI.com recently proposed other theories as to why the MLS is scoring at a record-low level.  Here is another - the league has gotten bigger than the talent pool.  This table shows goals per match by season relative to the number of teams in the league:



Season	Total   Goals	Matches	Goals   per   Match	Teams
1996	539	160	3.37	10
1997	522	160	3.26	10
1998	685	192	3.57	12
1999	549	192	2.86	12
2000	612	192	3.19	12
2001	518	158	3.28	12
2002	421	140	3.01	10
2003	433	150	2.89	10
2004	392	150	2.61	10
2005	551	192	2.87	12
2006	503	192	2.62	12
2007	519	195	2.66	13
2008	590	210	2.81	14
2009	569	225	2.53	15
2010	590	240	2.46	16
2011	437	182	2.40	18

The league has expanded seven times since it's formation.  The first four expansions (1998, 2005, 2007 and 2008) each resulted in an increase in goals per match.  However, the last three have resulted in decreased goals per match.  I think this is because the talent pool has become diluted.  The league is now 50% larger than it was five years ago and, let's face it, they are not drawing those additional players from the Premier League or La Liga or Serie A.

Here are the average goals scored by size of the league:



Teams	Goals  per Match
10	3.04
12	3.06
13	2.66
14	2.81
15	2.53
16	2.46
18	2.40

So if the MLS wants to see more offense they should consider shrinking the league.  I think a 12-team league would hit the sweet spot.  Unfortunately the league will be adding a 19th team next season in Montreal.  I expect to see even more 0-0 draws next season :(

MLS Week 16 Predictions

Normally the 4th of July weekend is full of fireworks.  This season in the MLS, not so much.  However, I do expect one match to feature a ton of scoring - Portland vs Kansas City on July 2nd.  Portland is leading the league in goals at home, averaging 1.875 per match.  Jeld-Wen Stadium, Portland's home pitch, has been the highest scoring venue in the league with 3.25 goals per match which is well above the league average of 2.42 per match.  Some claim that the size of their field is a factor.  There may be something to this as Portland is the lowest scoring team in the league on the road (0.429 per match) and also allows the most goals per match on the road (2.143).  On the other side of the pitch, Kansas City's road matches have averaged 3 goals per match which is second only to Chivas (3.125).  Sporting KC is one of the better teams at road scoring and also one of the worst at allowing goals on the road.  So I expect a lot of offense in this match and am predicting a final score of Portland 3 Kansas City 2.

Here are the rest of my predictions for the weekend:



Predicted Score
Toronto FC	1	Vancouver	1
D.C. United	1	Philadelphia	2
FC Dallas	1	Columbus	0
Chivas USA	1	Chicago	1
San Jose	1	New York	1
Colorado	1	Houston	1
Real Salt Lake	2	New England	0
Los Angeles	1	Seattle	1

MLS Week 14 Wrapup and SRS Rankings

Another low-scoring weekend for the MLS with only 22 goals in 9 matches or 2.44/match.  That's including the 6-goal outburst in the Portland/New York match.  Thankfully there were no 0-0 draws. 

I had a so-so week for my predictions as you can see below:



Predicted Score				Actual Score				Points
Kansas City	0	San Jose	0	Kansas City	1	San Jose	0	-10
Toronto FC	1	Seattle	2	Toronto FC	0	Seattle	1	15
New England	1	Chicago	1	New England	1	Chicago	1	30
Houston	2	Columbus	0	Houston	0	Columbus	2	-10
Real Salt Lake	2	D.C. United	1	Real Salt Lake	1	D.C. United	1	-10
Colorado	1	Los Angeles	1	Colorado	1	Los Angeles	3	-10
Vancouver	1	Philadelphia	2	Vancouver	1	Philadelphia	0	-10
Chivas USA	1	FC Dallas	1	Chivas USA	1	FC Dallas	2	-10
Portland	1	New York	1	Portland	3	New York	3	20
							Total	5

Correctly picked 3 of 9 outcomes and 1 score.  For the year my accuracy is 37.1% for outcomes and 9.0% for scores.

There are three midweek games.  here are my predictions for those:

Predicted Score
Philadelphia	2	Kansas City	1
Chicago	1	Real Salt Lake	1
Seattle	1	New York	2

My SRS predictions are after the jump:

MLS week 13 Wrapup and SRS Rankings

Maybe people are reading my blog after all.  A few days after my rant about the lack of scoring in the MLS, we get a weekend that featured 29 goals in 9 matches or 3.22 goals/match.  The MLS hasn't scored at this level since 2001.  Best of all, there were no scoreless draws!  This goal from the Seattle/Vancouver match was the best of the 29.

Here is a recap of my weekend predictions:

Predicted Score				Actual Score				Points
New York	2	New England	1	New York	2	New England	1	30
Philadelphia	0	Real Salt Lake	0	Philadelphia	1	Real Salt Lake	1	20
D.C. United	1	San Jose	1	D.C. United	2	San Jose	4	-10
Houston	2	Chivas USA	2	Houston	2	Chivas USA	1	-10
Seattle	1	Vancouver	0	Seattle	2	Vancouver	2	-10
Los Angeles	2	Toronto FC	0	Los Angeles	2	Toronto FC	2	-10
Portland	2	Colorado	1	Portland	0	Colorado	1	-10
Columbus	2	Chicago	1	Columbus	0	Chicago	1	-10
FC Dallas	2	Kansas City	1	FC Dallas	1	Kansas City	4	-10
							Total	-20

Not a good week with only 2 outcomes and 1 score predicted correctly.  Season-to-date my accuracy is at 38.0% for outcomes and 8.9% for scores.  My SRS rankings after the jump: