Impact of Promotion from Championship to Premier League - Part II

Yesterday I posted about the changes in promoted teams' stats in their first season in the Premier League.  On average, newly promoted teams reduce goals scored by 0.55/game, increase goals allowed by 0.60/game and reduce their points earned by 0.81/game.  I now want to apply those rates against the Championship stats of the three promoted teams to estimate how they will fare next season.

First, Queens Park Rangers with 88 pts,  71 goals scored and 32 goals allowed.  They averaged 88/46 or 1.91 points/match.  If we reduce this rate by 0.81 then they would earn 1.11 points/match in the Premier League or 42 points over a 38-game season.  This would most likely guarantee survival as only two teams have been relegated with as many as 42 points (Middlesborough 1997 and West Ham 2003) since the league went to 20 teams in 1996.  Their goal scoring rate would decline from 1.54 to 1.00/game or 38 goals.  Goals allowed would increase from 0.70 to 1.30 goals/match or 49 goals for the season.  The table below summarizes each team's projected results:

 

Club	League	Season	Matches	Points	GF	GA
Queens Park Rangers	Championship	2010-11	46	88	71	32
	Premier	2011-12	38	42	38	49
Norwich City	Championship	2010-11	46	84	83	58
	Premier	2011-12	38	39	48	71
Swansea City	Championship	2010-11	46	80	69	43
	Premier	2011-12	38	35	36	58

So I would expect QPR to survive.  The odds for Norwich and Swansea are not as good.  40 points is generally considered the safety threshold, but teams have survived with as little as 34 points (West Brom 2005).  Norwich has a decent chance of avoiding relegation at 39 points but I can't see Swansea  also surviving at 35 points.  Only in 2001 did all three promoted teams avoid relegation.  So my prediction is that QPR will survive, Norwich has a 50/50 chance and Swansea will be relegated.

Impact of Promotion from Championship to Premier League

Swansea City won the League Championship playoff final on Monday earning their first-ever promotion to the Premier League.  The Swans will become the first Welsh team to play in the Premiership.  They join Queens Park Rangers and Norwich City as next season's newcomers.  Obviously these three will be facing a higher level of competition, but can we quantify how much tougher it is? 

I decided to compare the performance of teams in their promotion season to their prior season in the Championship to measure the difference in quality between both leagues.  Going back to the 1993-94 season, 53 teams have been promoted from the Championship (or First Division as it was previously named) to the Premier League.  The table below shows the average changes in points and goals after promotion:



	Points	GF	GA	% Relegated
Championship Results/Match	1.87	1.67	1.00
Premiership Results/Match	1.06	1.12	1.60	47%
Change	-0.81	-0.55	0.60

A little less than half of the promoted teams were relegated after one season.  These teams had an average goal differential of 0.67/match in the Championship but this dropped to -0.48/match in the Premiership.  Net change was 1.15 goals/match worse than the Championship season. 

So can we say that teams from the Premier league are 1.15 goals/game better than their Championship counterparts?  Maybe so but since we are comparing results from one season to the next we have to account for changes in players, changes in management and changes in spending.  Currently a promotion to the Premier League is estimated to provide about £90 million of additional income to the promoted teams.  How they choose to spend that money can have a big impact on their performance.  

However, the impact of those factors (players, managers, income) is hard to quantify.  So more work needs to be done in this area to refine this, but for now I'm using the 1.15 goals as a yardstick to differentiate the quality levels between the leagues.

League Championship Weekend Wrapup

The Championship finished their regular season on Saturday and congratulations to Queens Park Rangers and Norwich City who earned automatic promotions to the Premier League.  QPR finished first with 88 points, 4 points ahead of the Canaries.  QPR was awaiting word from the Football Association which was ruling on irregularities concerning the economic rights of player Alejandro Faurlin.  There was the possibility of a points deduction which could have cost them the title.  However, the FA fined QPR instead so the Rangers get to bring home the trophy. 

Rangers return to the Premier for the first time since relegation following the 1996 season.  For Norwich they last played in the top flight in 2005.  Since then they struggled and were actually relegated into League One, one level below the Championship, after the 2009 season.  They bounced back and won the League one title in 2010 and then earned a second consecutive promotion this season.

The playoffs are all set.  Swansea City will face Nottingham Forest while Cardiff City takes on Reading.  Playoffs schedule can be found here.  Swansea managed to get third place, finishing ahead of their Welsh rivals Cardiff based on goal differential.  Nottingham's win over Crystal Palace gave them the points they needed to stay ahead of Leeds United who beat QPR on Saturday.

The Championship bids farewell to the three relegated teams, Preston North End, Sheffield United and Scunthorpe United.  Preston had the longest current tenure at this level of any team in the league, having been here for 11 consecutive seasons.  Scunthorpe's stay was brief, just one season as they return back to League One after earning promotion from there last year.  Sheffield United ends a four-season run after relegation from the Premier League and will also be returning dropping to League One.  Moving up from that level will be champions Brighton & Hove Albion and runner-up Southampton.  The third spot will be filled by the winner of the League One playoffs.

After the jump I will review the results of my weekend predictions.

League Championship Weekend Predictions

This is the next to last weekend of the regular season for the Championship.  Much can be decided.  Here are my predictions:

Watford 1 Queens Park Rangers 1
Ipswich Town 2 Preston North End 2
Hull City 1 Crystal Palace 0
Leeds United 2 Burnley 2
Derby County 2 Bristol City 2
Sheffield United 1 Barnsley 1
Doncaster Rovers 1 Leicester City 1
Nottingham Forest 2 Scunthorpe United 1
Millwall 2 Swansea City 1
Coventry City 1 Reading 2
Portsmouth 1 Norwich City 1
Cardiff City 2 Middlesbrough 1

QPR clinches the title with a win.  A draw will guarantee a top two finish and automatic promotion.  Both Norwich and Cardiff need to win to keep their title hopes alive.  Reading clinches a playoff spot with a draw or better.  At the bottom of the table, Scunthorpe and Sheffield both need wins to stave off relegation while hoping for losses by Doncaster and Crystal Palace.

League Championship Easter Monday Results and Updated Projection

Unlike in the US, Easter Monday is a holiday in the UK.  One of the ways they celebrate is by playing soccer.  All 24 teams in the Championship played today.  Here is how they performed vs my predictions:

Burnley 1 Portsmouth 1 (-10 pts)
Scunthorpe United 1 Millwall 2 (+30 pts)
Preston North End 0 Cardiff City 1 (+15 pts)
Swansea City 4 Ipswich Town 1 (+10 pts)
Bristol City 2 Nottingham Forest 3 (-10 pts)
Leicester City 4 Watford 2 (-10 pts)
Queens Park Rangers 1 Hull City 1 (-10 pts)
Barnsley 2 Doncaster Rovers 2 (-10 pts)
Reading 2 Sheffield United 3 (-10 pts)
Norwich 3 Derby County 2 (+15 pts)
Middlesbrough 2 Coventry City 1 (-10 pts)
Crystal Palace 1 Leeds United 0 (-10 pts)

Overall score was -10 pts and I projected 4 of 12 outcomes correctly.

A victory by QPR would have clinched the title but Hull City held them to a draw.  Meanwhile Norwich and Cardiff's wins kept their title hopes alive.  Cardiff's victory over Preston North End clinched relegation for the Lillywhites.

After the jump, my updated projection.

League Championship Predictions - 4/25

The Championship is celebrating Easter Monday with a full slate of matches.  here are my predictions:

Burnley 2 Portsmouth 1
Scunthorpe United 1 Millwall 2
Preston North End 1 Cardiff City 2
Swansea City 1 Ipswich Town 0
Bristol City 1 Nottingham Forest 1
Leicester City 2 Watford 2
Queens Park Rangers 2 Hull City 1
Barnsley 2 Doncaster Rovers 1
Reading 2 Sheffield United 0
Norwich City 2 Derby County 1
Middlesbrough 1 Coventry City 1
Crystal Palace 1 Leeds United 1

If Queens Park Rangers wins tomorrow, they will be champions.  If they draw, Cardiff City and Norwich City need to win to keep their hopes alive.  Reading's title hopes were dashed over the weekend.

League Championship Predictions - 4/21

The "weekend" starts today in the Championship so here are my predictions for this round:

Ipswich Town 1  Norwich City 2
Coventry City 2  Scunthorpe United 1
Leeds United 2  Reading 2
Doncaster Rovers 2  Crystal Palace 1
Nottingham Forest 2  Leicester City 1
Portsmouth 1  Swansea City 1
Millwall 2  Preston North End 1
Hull City 1  Middlesbrough 1
Derby County 1  Burnley 1
Watford 2  Barnsley 1
Cardiff City 1  Queens Park Rangers 1
Sheffield United 1  Bristol City 2

QPR is in a position to clinch the title this weekend.  Currently, Cardiff, Norwich and Reading are the only remaining teams that can catch them.  If the results play out as projected above, Reading would be eliminated from the title hunt.  A win by QPR eliminates both Cardiff and Reading and, potentially Norwich if they don't also win.  If QPR loses, Cardiff and Norwich remain in the hunt.  Reading would then have to defeat Leeds to keep their title hopes alive.

League Championship Weekend Results

I'm a little bit behind on my postings.  Life got busy for me but the soccer world moved on.  The Championship played another round of matches yesterday which I did not get a chance to predict.  I will include these matches in my next projection for this league.  Here is my belated analysis of the weekend results:

Portsmouth 1 Preston 1
Prediction:  Portsmouth 2 Preston 1
Score:  -10 pts

Swansea 3 Norwich 0
Predicition:  Swansea 1 Norwich 1
Score:  -10 pts

Watford 1 Hull City 2
Prediction:  Watford 2 Hull 2
Score:  -10 pts

Ipswich 2 Crystal Palace 1
Prediction:  Ipswich 2 Crystal Palace 1
Score: +30 pts

Doncaster 1 Cardiff City 3
Prediction:  Doncaster 1 Cardiff 2
Score:  +10 pts

Leicester 4 Burnley 0
Prediction:  Leicester 1 Burnley 1
Score:  -10 pts

Barnsley 4 Bristol City 2
Prediction:  Barnsley 1 Bristol 1
Score:  -10 pts

Scunthorpe 4 QPR 1 (WTF?)
Prediction:  Scunthorpe 0 QPR 2
Score:  -10 pts.  The worst team in the league by far beats the best team in the league by far.  I know Scunthorpe was the home team, but they were coming off a 6-0 defeat.  So WTF QPR?

Millwall 3 Leeds United 2
Prediction:  Millwall 2 Leeds 2
Score:  -10 pts

Derby 2 Coventry City 2
Prediction:  Derby 1 Coventry 1
Score:  +20 pts

Nottingham Forest 3 Reading 4
Prediction:  Forest 1 Reading 1
Score:  -10 pts

Sheffield United 1 Middlesbrough 2
Prediction:  Sheffield 1 Middlesbrough 1
Score:  -10 pts.

For those of you keeping score I ended up with -30 points for these matches.  My previous scores were +15 and zero.  Will update my projections for the table later this week.

English League Championship SRS Rankings

Today I will be presenting my SRS rankings for the Championship.  These serve as the foundation for my projections.  Please see my previous post for more detail on the SRS method.  For matches played through 3/19:

Team	MOV	SOS	SRS
Queens Park Rangers	0.974	0.022	0.996
Reading	0.486	0.055	0.542
Swansea City	0.447	0.007	0.454
Norwich City	0.395	-0.001	0.394
Cardiff City	0.368	0.021	0.390
Watford	0.368	-0.019	0.350
Nottingham Forest	0.342	0.008	0.350
Millwall	0.289	0.030	0.320
Leeds United	0.237	-0.060	0.177
Burnley	0.189	-0.034	0.155
Hull City	0.105	-0.019	0.086
Portsmouth	0.053	-0.003	0.050
Leicester City	0.000	0.000	0.000
Ipswich Town	-0.026	0.012	-0.014
Bristol City	-0.105	0.026	-0.079
Middlesbrough	-0.216	0.032	-0.184
Derby County	-0.132	-0.061	-0.193
Coventry City	-0.237	-0.012	-0.249
Barnsley	-0.289	0.011	-0.278
Doncaster Rovers	-0.474	0.042	-0.431
Crystal Palace	-0.579	0.034	-0.545
Preston North End	-0.622	-0.002	-0.624
Sheffield United	-0.658	-0.026	-0.683
Scunthorpe United	-0.921	-0.046	-0.967

The color coding represents which club is the best (green) and worst (red) in each category.  QPR is the best team overall and are sitting comfortably atop the table.  Reading is the second-best team in the rankings but is currently seventh in the league.  Part of the reason is that their strength of schedule is the hardest in the league thus far.  In other words they are a better team than what their table position suggests.

Let's take a look at the SRS rankings for remaining games:

Team	MOV	SOS	SRS
Queens Park Rangers	1.141	-0.171	0.970
Reading	0.880	-0.343	0.537
Cardiff City	0.599	-0.094	0.505
Swansea City	0.403	0.006	0.409
Hull City	0.115	0.281	0.396
Watford	0.331	0.019	0.350
Norwich City	0.407	-0.086	0.321
Nottingham Forest	0.359	-0.041	0.319
Millwall	0.499	-0.293	0.206
Leicester City	-0.043	0.191	0.148
Leeds United	-0.205	0.331	0.126
Burnley	0.014	0.107	0.121
Portsmouth	0.045	0.031	0.076
Ipswich Town	-0.015	-0.049	-0.064
Middlesbrough	0.027	-0.094	-0.067
Derby County	-0.504	0.342	-0.162
Barnsley	-0.301	0.080	-0.221
Bristol City	-0.139	-0.131	-0.270
Doncaster Rovers	-0.188	-0.101	-0.290
Coventry City	-0.374	0.046	-0.327
Sheffield United	-0.798	0.253	-0.545
Crystal Palace	-0.405	-0.170	-0.575
Preston North End	-0.692	0.017	-0.674
Scunthorpe United	-1.186	0.262	-0.924

Since these rankings are based on a sample size of 8 - 9 matches per club there is more variability in the results.  One thing that really stands out is Reading has the easiest remaining schedule in the league.  6 of their 9 remaining matches are against teams in the bottom half of the table including all 3 teams currently in the relegation zone.  I project that this easy schedule will allow Reading to climb into the playoffs and that they will win out and earn promotion to the Premiership.

Projected English League Championship Winner: Queens Park Rangers

In yesterday's post I reviewed my projection methods for the Premier League.  Today I will apply the same to the League Championship which is one level down from the Premier in English football.  Each year 3 teams from this league move up to the Premier, switching places with the bottom 3 teams from that league.  The top 2 teams move up automatically.  The 3rd team is determined from a playoff involving the 4 teams that finish the season placed 3rd through 6th.  So doing a projection for this league requires projecting the outcome of the playoffs in addition to projecting the final league table.

First lets show the projected final standings:

		Overall
Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA		GD	Pts
1	Queens Park Rangers	46	27	15	4	74	27		47	96
2	Cardiff City	46	24	11	11	71	51		20	83
3	Swansea City	46	24	10	12	62	41		21	82
4	Norwich City	46	20	19	7	73	56		17	79
5	Reading	46	20	18	8	77	52		25	78
6	Burnley	46	20	17	9	69	54		15	77
7	Nottingham Forest	46	19	19	8	59	41		18	76
8	Leeds United	46	17	20	9	86	76		10	71
9	Watford	46	18	16	12	81	69		12	70
10	Millwall	46	16	17	13	57	47		10	65
11	Hull City	46	15	19	12	51	47		4	64
12	Portsmouth	46	18	10	18	62	62		0	64
13	Leicester City	46	17	12	17	69	70		-1	63
14	Ipswich Town	46	15	12	19	61	62		-1	57
15	Bristol City	46	14	15	17	60	65		-5	57
16	Middlesbrough	46	14	12	20	59	69		-10	54
17	Barnsley	46	13	15	18	53	66		-13	54
18	Coventry City	46	12	14	20	51	60		-9	50
19	Doncaster Rovers	46	12	14	20	63	82		-19	50
20	Crystal Palace	46	13	10	23	43	70		-27	49
21	Derby County	46	11	12	23	54	66		-12	45
22	Scunthorpe United	46	10	8	28	43	79		-36	38
23	Sheffield United	46	8	11	27	41	72		-31	35
24	Preston North End	46	5	14	27	49	84		-35	29

I'm not exactly going out on a limb by predicting a title for Queens Park Rangers.  Through games of March 8th, they are leading by 7 points with 10 games left to play, a comfortable if not insurmountable lead.  QPR is the class of this league.  They are outscoring their opponents by an average of 0.972 goals per game.  Next best are Reading and Swansea City with an average margin of 0.472 goals per game.  More on these two teams later.

The playoffs for this league match up 3rd vs 6th and 4th vs 5th.  Each pairing plays 2 games, one at each team's home ground with the team scoring the most goals moving on to the playoff final.  The playoff final is a single game played at a neutral site, London's Wembley Stadium.  My method for projecting the 3/6 and 4/5 results is the same as I use for the regular season projections.  However, since the playoff final is at a neutral site I can't use home vs away comparisons.  Instead I take the total stats (home + away) for each team to project the final score.

Based on the projected standings above, these will be the first round matchups:

Swansea City vs Burnley and Norwich City vs Reading.

Here are my predictions for the games between these teams:

Playoffs
Home	Projected Goals	Away	Projected   Goals
Swansea City	1.078	Burnley	0.397
Burnley	1.742	Swansea City	1.266
Norwich City	1.500	Reading	1.661
Reading	1.475	Norwich City	1.345

Swansea City is the stingiest team in the league at home, only allowing 0.389 goals per game so I expect them to shut down Burnley in their first game.  Burnley should bounce back at home, but not by a large enough margin.  I have Swansea going to the final with a higher aggregate score:  2.344 - 2.139.

Norwich and Reading is a pretty close matchup on both ends of the playoff.    My rule of thumb is that a difference of less than 0.5 goals means that the two teams will most likely tie.  It comes down to the decimal points here so I have Reading moving on 3.136 - 2.845.

So the playoff final will be Swansea vs Reading.  Here is my projection:

Play-off Final	Projected Goals		Projected Goals
Swansea City	1.174	Reading	1.202
Playoff Champion
Reading

I give Reading a slight edge here.  As I mentioned earlier, these two teams both outscore their opponents by 0.472 goals per game.  So how do I break this deadlock?  I looked at the strength of schedule (SOS) for each team by taking the average margin of victory (MOV) of each team's opponents and adding it to the team's MOV to get an adjusted MOV.  This is a method known as the Simple Rating System (SRS) used to rank teams in other sports which I have decided to apply here.  Check out this site for a detailed description.

Reading's opponents have an average MOV of 0.033.  Swansea's have an average MOV of -0.023.  These averages are what I will refer to as SOS.  Reading's opponents have on average outscored their opponents while Swansea's have on average been outscored.  This means that Reading has played a tougher schedule than Swansea.  When we adjust each teams MOV by their SOS, Reading is now at 0.505 and Swansea at 0.449.  This difference will lead to a higher projected score for Reading.  Please note that the quality of these two teams is very comparable.  If I were to assign a probability I would say that I'm 51% certain that Reading would win this match.

In my next post I will be predicting the results of this weekend's matchups in the Championship.