Premier League Wrapup and SRS Rankings

It certainly was an eventful weekend in the city of Manchester.  Manchester United clinched their 19th league championship breaking a tie with Liverpool for most all-time titles.  Manchester City defeated Stoke City on Saturday to win the FA Cup.  This was their 5th cup overall and first since 1969.  These two teams happened to have a rematch on Tuesday which was their rescheduled Premier League match.  Man City thrashed Stoke City 3-0 and moved one point ahead of Arsenal into 3rd place in the league.  The top 3 finishers in the Premier are automatically placed in the group stage of next season's Champions League.  4th place has to play through the qualifying rounds to earn a place in the group stage. 

Man City visits Bolton on Saturday while Arsenal travels to Fulham.  Here are the possible scenarios:

Man City win:  they clinch 3rd place and Arsenal ends up 4th.
Man City draw:  City clinches 3rd with an Arsenal loss or draw.  An Arsenal win gives them 3rd place.
Man City loss:  City clinches 3rd if Arsenal also loses.  Arsenal will clinch 3rd with a win or a draw (due to goal differential tiebreaker).

The 5th spot, which qualifies for the Europa League, is also in play between Tottenham and Liverpool with the Spurs holding a one-point edge.  Tottenham's victory at Liverpool last weekend puts them in the drivers seat.  They host Birmingham on Saturday while Liverpool visits Aston Villa.  These are the scenarios:

Tottenham win:  they clinch 5th place.
Tottenham draw:  Spurs clinch 5th with a Liverpool loss or draw.  Liverpool would need a win to pass them.
Tottenham loss:  Spurs clinch 5th if Liverpool also loses.  Liverpool will clinch 5th with a win or a draw (due to goal differential tiebreaker).

At the bottom of the table West Ham clinched relegation over the weekend and promptly fired their manager.  There are still five teams (Wolves, Blackburn, Birmingham, Blackpool and Wigan) that are in danger of filling the last two relegation spots.  There are myriad scenarios so I won't list them all.  I can say that if there is a winner in the Wolves vs Blackburn match, that team will be safe.  Otherwise, each team's fate is dependent on the outcome of other matches.

The latest SRS rankings are after the jump:

Premier League Weekend Wrap Up

Manchester United is now on the brink of clinching the title after their home victory over Chelsea.  With a 6-point lead United needs merely one point in the next two matches to regain their status as Premier League champions. 

Liverpool continues their scorching hot play as they destroyed Fulham 5-2.  This victory combined with Tottenham's draw against Blackpool pushes the Reds into 5th place which is the final European spot in the league.

At the bottom of the table, Wolves jumped outside of the relegation zone with a 3-1 win over West Brom.  Despite the loss, 13th-placed West Brom is safe from relegation, but every team below them has some work to do if they want to return to the Premier next year.

After the jump I will recap my predictions from the weekend.

Premier League Projection 4/13

Here is the updated Premier League projection based on matches completed through 4/11:

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA		GD	Pts
1	Manchester United	38	23	12	3	82	39		43	81
2	Arsenal	38	24	9	5	76	38		38	81
3	Chelsea	38	23	7	8	68	31		37	76
4	Manchester City	38	19	11	8	59	35		24	68
5	Tottenham Hotspur	38	17	11	10	52	45		7	62
6	Liverpool	38	17	6	15	52	45		7	57
7	Everton	38	13	15	10	54	50		4	54
8	Bolton Wanderers	38	12	14	12	54	52		2	50
9	Newcastle United	38	12	11	15	57	57		0	47
10	Aston Villa	38	12	10	16	48	62		-14	46
11	Fulham	38	9	18	11	43	41		2	45
12	Stoke City	38	13	6	19	46	50		-4	45
13	Sunderland	38	10	15	13	41	51		-10	45
14	West Bromwich Albion	38	11	10	17	55	71		-16	43
15	Birmingham City	38	8	16	14	37	53		-16	40
16	Blackburn Rovers	38	9	12	17	48	62		-14	39
17	West Ham United	38	8	14	16	47	67		-20	38
18	Wolverhampton Wanderers	38	10	7	21	43	66		-23	37
19	Blackpool	38	9	10	19	54	78		-24	37
20	Wigan Athletic	38	6	16	16	35	61		-26	34

No movement at the top but lots of changes in the middle and the bottom.  Everton improves by 5 points and moves up to 7th.  Probably too little, too late for European qualification but a strong finish bodes well for next year.  Keep an eye on the Toffees next season.

Sunderland's slump continues, now having lost seven of their last eight.  Their projected points drop by 3 because their projected win over West Brom turned into a loss.  They drop four spots since the middle of the table is so tightly packed.

Wolves were the latest victim's of Everton's resurgence.  Dropped their projection by 3 points which now puts them back in the relegation zone.

Premier League Projection 3/22

Here are my projected final standings for the Premier League, updated for this past weekend's results:

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	38	26	7	5	80	39	41	85
2	Manchester United	38	23	11	4	80	39	41	80
3	Chelsea	38	23	7	8	70	31	39	76
4	Manchester City	38	19	12	7	56	34	22	69
5	Tottenham Hotspur	38	18	11	9	53	44	9	65
6	Liverpool	38	16	9	13	51	45	6	57
7	Everton	38	12	15	11	52	51	1	51
8	Bolton Wanderers	38	11	16	11	52	51	1	49
9	Sunderland	38	11	16	11	42	45	-3	49
10	Newcastle United	38	12	11	15	56	58	-2	47
11	Stoke City	38	13	6	19	44	49	-5	45
12	Aston Villa	38	12	9	17	48	63	-15	45
13	Fulham	38	8	19	11	41	42	-1	43
14	Wolverhampton Wanderers	38	11	8	19	45	62	-17	41
15	West Ham United	38	9	13	16	47	63	-16	40
16	Blackburn Rovers	38	10	9	19	49	65	-16	39
17	West Bromwich Albion	38	9	11	18	52	71	-19	38
18	Blackpool	38	9	10	19	55	76	-21	37
19	Birmingham City	38	6	17	15	35	54	-19	35
20	Wigan Athletic	38	6	15	17	36	64	-28	33

No change in the top 6.  Arsenal's lead over Man United shrinks by 2 points because they only managed a draw instead of a win at West Brom.  The additional point West Brom earned was enough to pull them clear of relegation.  Birmingham's loss to Wigan really hurt their prospects and they are now projected for relegation.  Wolves' upset victory over Villa helped them quite a bit, moving them up three spots to 14th.

The English Leagues will be taking a two-week break for international matches, so I won't have much to post in that time.  I will spend that time developing a model for the MLS.  Stay tuned!