MLS Week 21 Recap

Had a so-so week with my predictions as you can see below:



Predicted Score				Actual Score				Points
Colorado	1	Columbus	1	Colorado	2	Columbus	0	-10
D.C. United	2	Toronto FC	1	D.C. United	3	Toronto FC	3	-10
New England	1	Chivas USA	2	New  England	2	Chivas USA	3	15
Philadelphia	1	Houston	0	Philadelphia	1	Houston	1	-10
Kansas City	1	Seattle	1	Kansas City	1	Seattle	2	-10
Real Salt Lake	2	New York	1	Real Salt Lake	3	New York	0	10
Los Angeles	1	FC Dallas	0	Los Angeles	3	FC Dallas	1	10
San Jose	2	Portland	1	San Jose	1	Portland	1	-10
Vancouver	1	Chicago	1	Vancouver	4	Chicago	2	-10
						Total		-25

My accuracy was 3 for 9 on the outcomes and I did not predict any scores correctly.  My outcome accuracy is now 39.6% for the season.  Let's see how the new SRS ratings look:



Team	MOV	SOS	SRS	Change
Real Salt Lake	0.667	-0.008	0.659	-0.011
Los Angeles	0.600	-0.043	0.557	-0.096
Seattle	0.333	-0.016	0.318	0.034
FC Dallas	0.292	0.015	0.307	-0.067
Philadelphia	0.318	-0.016	0.302	-0.034
Colorado	0.160	0.028	0.188	0.077
New York	0.167	0.020	0.186	-0.107
Chivas USA	0.174	-0.018	0.156	0.010
Columbus	0.087	0.037	0.124	-0.081
Houston	0.000	0.024	0.024	0.005
Kansas City	0.087	-0.065	0.022	0.102
D.C. United	-0.190	-0.010	-0.201	-0.057
San Jose	-0.217	0.009	-0.209	-0.024
Portland	-0.318	0.027	-0.291	0.183
Chicago	-0.318	0.020	-0.298	-0.079
New England	-0.478	0.041	-0.438	-0.017
Vancouver	-0.478	-0.039	-0.517	0.092
Toronto FC	-0.880	-0.011	-0.891	0.029

Both Real Salt Lake and Los Angeles won one and lost one last week.  However, LA's loss to Portland hurt their SRS rating more than RSL's loss to Columbus due to Portland being the weaker team.  Conversely, Portland's victory over LA allowed them to register the biggest gain in the ratings.

MLS Week 21 Weekend Predictions

We have a full slate of games this weekend.  Here are my predictions:



Predicted Score
Colorado	1	Columbus	1
D.C.  United	2	Toronto FC	1
New England	1	Chivas USA	2
Philadelphia	1	Houston	0
Kansas City	1	Seattle	1
Real Salt Lake	2	New York	1
Los Angeles	1	FC Dallas	0
San Jose	2	Portland	1
Vancouver	1	Chicago	1

MLS Week 21 Mid-week Predictions

Even though last weekend's predictions bombed I'm staying in the game.  For July I finished with an accuracy rate of 42.2% which raised my season average to 40.8%.  Let's see how we do in August.  We'll be kicking off the month with four three matches tonight.  Here are my predictions:



Predicted Score
Kansas City	1	Real Salt Lake	1
Chicago	1	Philadelphia	1
Portland	0	Los Angeles	1



MLS Week 20 Recap

Good News and bad news for me over the weekend.  The good news is that I had a perfect weekend with my MLS predictions.  The bad news is that I was perfect the wrong way going 0 for 8.  This is actually pretty hard to do, but that is small consolation.  Here is a recap of the results:



Predicted Score				Actual Score				Points
Philadelphia	2	Colorado	1	Philadelphia	1	Colorado	2	-10
Vancouver	1	Los Angeles	1	Vancouver	0	Los Angeles	4	-10
Kansas City	2	New England	1	Kansas City	1	New England	1	-10
Houston	1	Seattle	1	Houston	3	Seattle	1	-10
Real Salt Lake	2	Columbus	0	Real Salt Lake	0	Columbus	2	-10
San Jose	1	D.C. United	1	San Jose	0	D.C. United	2	-10
Portland	3	Toronto FC	2	Portland	2	Toronto FC	2	-10
FC Dallas	1	Chivas USA	1	FC Dallas	1	Chivas USA	0	-10

It was an unusually bad weekend for home teams with three teams getting shut out and only two teams, Dallas and Houston winning.  Perhaps that Texas heat gave them an advantage.  Let's see how these results impacted the SRS ratings:



Team	MOV	SOS	SRS	Change
Real Salt Lake	0.684	-0.014	0.670	-0.148
Los Angeles	0.696	-0.042	0.653	0.131
FC Dallas	0.391	-0.017	0.374	0.045
Philadelphia	0.350	-0.014	0.336	-0.079
New York	0.304	-0.011	0.293	0.009
Seattle	0.304	-0.021	0.284	-0.094
Columbus	0.182	0.024	0.205	0.121
Chivas USA	0.136	0.010	0.146	-0.044
Colorado	0.083	0.027	0.111	0.070
Houston	0.000	0.019	0.019	0.121
Kansas City	0.048	-0.127	-0.080	-0.033
D.C. United	-0.200	0.056	-0.144	0.130
San Jose	-0.227	0.043	-0.185	-0.122
Chicago	-0.250	0.031	-0.219	-0.002
New England	-0.455	0.033	-0.421	0.019
Portland	-0.500	0.026	-0.474	-0.024
Vancouver	-0.591	-0.018	-0.609	-0.146
Toronto FC	-0.917	-0.003	-0.920	0.020

Real Salt Lake holds on to the top spot despite their upset loss to Columbus.  LA's big win over Vancouver puts them right behind the Claret-and-Cobalt.  They actually have the highest average margin of victory (MOV), but RSL's better strength of schedule (SOS) keeps them ahead of the Galaxy overall.