MLS Week 20 Predictions

The MLS returns to action this weekend after the All-Star break.  Hopefully this weekend's action will allow the league's best to get over their 4-0 thrashing by Manchester United.  We have a total of eight matches this weekend.  New York will be playing in the Emirates Cup tournament in London which features Thierry Henry's return to the Emirates Stadium.  Chicago is idle  Here are my predictions:



Predicted Score
Philadelphia	2	Colorado	1
Vancouver	1	Los Angeles	1
Kansas City	2	New England	1
Houston	1	Seattle	1
Real Salt Lake	2	Columbus	0
San Jose	1	D.C. United	1
Portland	3	Toronto FC	2
FC Dallas	1	Chivas USA	1

MLS Week 18 Predictions

Once again there are only eight matches this weekend with Los Angeles and Toronto FC sitting idle.  Here are my predictions:



Predicted Score
Vancouver	1	Real Salt Lake	1
Seattle	1	Colorado	1
Columbus	2	San Jose	1
Chicago	2	Portland	0
Houston	2	Kansas City	2
FC Dallas	2	D.C. United	1
Chivas USA	1	New York	1
New England	1	Philadelphia	1

I think the best matchup will be Chivas vs New York.  In their previous matchup, Chivas shocked the Red Bulls at home thanks to a Justin Braun hat trick.  Braun has scored only one other goal the rest of the season so don't expect a repeat performance.  New York is the highest scoring team in the league overall (1.7 goals/match) and on the road (1.6 goals/match) but Chivas has been stingy at home allowing 0.9 goals/match.  On offense, Chivas has struggled to score at home with 1.1 goals per match which is actually lower than their road scoring average of 1.4 goals/match.  RBNY's road defense has been their Achilles heel, allowing 1.5 goals/match.

The outcome of this match could have big playoff implications.  New York and Philadelphia are neck-and-neck for the Eastern Conference title.  Anything less than a point for the Red Bulls will hurt their chances of winning the conference.  I'm currently projecting Chivas for the final playoff spot.  Anything less than a point puts their playoff hopes in limbo.

Marginal Goal Analysis - Los Angeles Galaxy

Since my latest projection has Los Angeles winning the MLS Cup, I thought that it was time to do a marginal goal analysis for the Galaxy.  Here are the results for players with significant playing time through their 21 MLS matches:

Player	Primary Position	Minutes	GS	GA	GS90	GA90	GD90	MGS90	MGA90	MGD90
Todd Dunivant	D	1890	27	16	1.286	0.762	0.524	-0.006	-0.008	0.003
Sean Franklin	D	1664	24	15	1.298	0.811	0.487	0.007	0.041	-0.035
Juninho	M	1638	22	13	1.209	0.714	0.495	-0.083	-0.056	-0.027
Omar Gonzalez	D	1609	24	11	1.342	0.615	0.727	0.051	-0.155	0.206
A.J. DeLaGarza	D	1547	22	14	1.280	0.814	0.465	-0.011	0.044	-0.056
David Beckham	M	1338	20	11	1.345	0.740	0.605	0.054	-0.030	0.084
Juan Pablo Angel	F	1312	18	13	1.235	0.892	0.343	-0.057	0.122	-0.178
Mike Magee	M	1205	20	8	1.494	0.598	0.896	0.202	-0.172	0.375
Chris Birchall	M	1203	16	12	1.197	0.898	0.299	-0.094	0.128	-0.222
Chad Barrett	F	1182	16	11	1.218	0.838	0.381	-0.073	0.068	-0.141
Landon Donovan	F	1154	18	7	1.404	0.546	0.858	0.112	-0.224	0.337
Miguel López	M	896	14	4	1.406	0.402	1.004	0.115	-0.368	0.483

Miguel Lòpez has the highest MGD90 and MGA90 scores of any player I've rated so far.  When he's on the field, the Galaxy shuts down their opponents.  He also has been an effective contributor to their offense.  Sticking out like a sore thumb is Chris Birchall's stat line.  When he is on the field, the Galaxy are at their least effective both at scoring goals and preventing goals.  I think that giving more midfield playing time to Lòpez and more bench time to Birchall will make the Galaxy a stronger team.  Birchall may be getting more bench time anyway after this vicious tackle.

Of the three teams I have rated (Real Salt Lake and New York the others), only LA has three players (Lòpez, Mike Magee and Landon Donovan) with MGD90's above 0.300.  I'm especially pleased to see the high rating for Donovan who is generally considered the best player in the MLS.  To me this is validation that marginal goals are an effective way to measure a player's contribution to his team.



MLS Season Projection

We are now halfway through the 2011 MLS season.  Here is my latest projection of the final standings based on results through week 17:



East
Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Philadelphia	34	15	12	7	40	27	13	57
2	New York	34	13	17	4	56	38	18	56
3	Columbus	34	14	10	10	39	33	6	52
4	Kansas City	34	9	18	7	40	37	3	45
5	D.C. United	34	7	17	10	49	57	-8	38
6	Houston	34	6	19	9	38	38	0	37
7	Chicago	34	5	22	7	39	42	-3	37
8	New England	34	3	15	16	29	45	-16	24
9	Toronto FC	34	3	12	19	27	59	-32	21
West
Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Los Angeles	34	16	16	2	43	26	17	64
2	Real Salt Lake	34	16	15	3	45	23	22	63
3	Seattle	34	14	16	4	44	31	13	58
4	FC Dallas	34	14	12	8	43	34	9	54
5	Colorado	34	7	20	7	36	39	-3	41
6	Chivas USA	34	7	18	9	43	42	1	39
7	San Jose	34	7	17	10	44	42	2	38
8	Portland	34	8	7	19	39	65	-26	31
9	Vancouver	34	3	15	16	32	48	-16	24

Now projecting Los Angeles and Philadelphia as the conference champs.  RSL dropped two points because they have the toughest remaining schedule.  It includes two matches against New York, Los Angeles on the road and Philadelphia at home.  New York's loss to D.C. United over the weekend cost them some points,  allowing Philadelphia to move ahead of them.  For the MLS Cup I'm now projecting Los Angeles to defeat Philadelphia.