Impact of Promotion from Championship to Premier League - Part II

Yesterday I posted about the changes in promoted teams' stats in their first season in the Premier League.  On average, newly promoted teams reduce goals scored by 0.55/game, increase goals allowed by 0.60/game and reduce their points earned by 0.81/game.  I now want to apply those rates against the Championship stats of the three promoted teams to estimate how they will fare next season.

First, Queens Park Rangers with 88 pts,  71 goals scored and 32 goals allowed.  They averaged 88/46 or 1.91 points/match.  If we reduce this rate by 0.81 then they would earn 1.11 points/match in the Premier League or 42 points over a 38-game season.  This would most likely guarantee survival as only two teams have been relegated with as many as 42 points (Middlesborough 1997 and West Ham 2003) since the league went to 20 teams in 1996.  Their goal scoring rate would decline from 1.54 to 1.00/game or 38 goals.  Goals allowed would increase from 0.70 to 1.30 goals/match or 49 goals for the season.  The table below summarizes each team's projected results:

 

Club	League	Season	Matches	Points	GF	GA
Queens Park Rangers	Championship	2010-11	46	88	71	32
	Premier	2011-12	38	42	38	49
Norwich City	Championship	2010-11	46	84	83	58
	Premier	2011-12	38	39	48	71
Swansea City	Championship	2010-11	46	80	69	43
	Premier	2011-12	38	35	36	58

So I would expect QPR to survive.  The odds for Norwich and Swansea are not as good.  40 points is generally considered the safety threshold, but teams have survived with as little as 34 points (West Brom 2005).  Norwich has a decent chance of avoiding relegation at 39 points but I can't see Swansea  also surviving at 35 points.  Only in 2001 did all three promoted teams avoid relegation.  So my prediction is that QPR will survive, Norwich has a 50/50 chance and Swansea will be relegated.

Impact of Promotion from Championship to Premier League

Swansea City won the League Championship playoff final on Monday earning their first-ever promotion to the Premier League.  The Swans will become the first Welsh team to play in the Premiership.  They join Queens Park Rangers and Norwich City as next season's newcomers.  Obviously these three will be facing a higher level of competition, but can we quantify how much tougher it is? 

I decided to compare the performance of teams in their promotion season to their prior season in the Championship to measure the difference in quality between both leagues.  Going back to the 1993-94 season, 53 teams have been promoted from the Championship (or First Division as it was previously named) to the Premier League.  The table below shows the average changes in points and goals after promotion:



	Points	GF	GA	% Relegated
Championship Results/Match	1.87	1.67	1.00
Premiership Results/Match	1.06	1.12	1.60	47%
Change	-0.81	-0.55	0.60

A little less than half of the promoted teams were relegated after one season.  These teams had an average goal differential of 0.67/match in the Championship but this dropped to -0.48/match in the Premiership.  Net change was 1.15 goals/match worse than the Championship season. 

So can we say that teams from the Premier league are 1.15 goals/game better than their Championship counterparts?  Maybe so but since we are comparing results from one season to the next we have to account for changes in players, changes in management and changes in spending.  Currently a promotion to the Premier League is estimated to provide about £90 million of additional income to the promoted teams.  How they choose to spend that money can have a big impact on their performance.  

However, the impact of those factors (players, managers, income) is hard to quantify.  So more work needs to be done in this area to refine this, but for now I'm using the 1.15 goals as a yardstick to differentiate the quality levels between the leagues.

League Championship Weekend Wrapup

The Championship finished their regular season on Saturday and congratulations to Queens Park Rangers and Norwich City who earned automatic promotions to the Premier League.  QPR finished first with 88 points, 4 points ahead of the Canaries.  QPR was awaiting word from the Football Association which was ruling on irregularities concerning the economic rights of player Alejandro Faurlin.  There was the possibility of a points deduction which could have cost them the title.  However, the FA fined QPR instead so the Rangers get to bring home the trophy. 

Rangers return to the Premier for the first time since relegation following the 1996 season.  For Norwich they last played in the top flight in 2005.  Since then they struggled and were actually relegated into League One, one level below the Championship, after the 2009 season.  They bounced back and won the League one title in 2010 and then earned a second consecutive promotion this season.

The playoffs are all set.  Swansea City will face Nottingham Forest while Cardiff City takes on Reading.  Playoffs schedule can be found here.  Swansea managed to get third place, finishing ahead of their Welsh rivals Cardiff based on goal differential.  Nottingham's win over Crystal Palace gave them the points they needed to stay ahead of Leeds United who beat QPR on Saturday.

The Championship bids farewell to the three relegated teams, Preston North End, Sheffield United and Scunthorpe United.  Preston had the longest current tenure at this level of any team in the league, having been here for 11 consecutive seasons.  Scunthorpe's stay was brief, just one season as they return back to League One after earning promotion from there last year.  Sheffield United ends a four-season run after relegation from the Premier League and will also be returning dropping to League One.  Moving up from that level will be champions Brighton & Hove Albion and runner-up Southampton.  The third spot will be filled by the winner of the League One playoffs.

After the jump I will review the results of my weekend predictions.

League Championship Weekend Predictions

This is the next to last weekend of the regular season for the Championship.  Much can be decided.  Here are my predictions:

Watford 1 Queens Park Rangers 1
Ipswich Town 2 Preston North End 2
Hull City 1 Crystal Palace 0
Leeds United 2 Burnley 2
Derby County 2 Bristol City 2
Sheffield United 1 Barnsley 1
Doncaster Rovers 1 Leicester City 1
Nottingham Forest 2 Scunthorpe United 1
Millwall 2 Swansea City 1
Coventry City 1 Reading 2
Portsmouth 1 Norwich City 1
Cardiff City 2 Middlesbrough 1

QPR clinches the title with a win.  A draw will guarantee a top two finish and automatic promotion.  Both Norwich and Cardiff need to win to keep their title hopes alive.  Reading clinches a playoff spot with a draw or better.  At the bottom of the table, Scunthorpe and Sheffield both need wins to stave off relegation while hoping for losses by Doncaster and Crystal Palace.

League Championship SRS Rankings - 4/26

Here are the latest SRS rankings for the Championship as of 4/25:

Team	MOV	SOS	SRS	Change
Queens Park Rangers	0.864	-0.008	0.855	-0.020
Reading	0.568	0.007	0.575	-0.064
Cardiff City	0.568	0.001	0.569	0.003
Norwich City	0.545	0.006	0.552	0.093
Swansea City	0.477	0.008	0.486	0.042
Millwall	0.386	-0.006	0.380	0.065
Nottingham Forest	0.273	0.033	0.306	0.029
Watford	0.227	-0.008	0.220	-0.035
Leeds United	0.205	-0.025	0.179	-0.030
Hull City	0.091	0.016	0.106	-0.036
Burnley	0.114	-0.018	0.095	0.037
Leicester City	0.068	0.015	0.083	0.036
Ipswich Town	-0.114	0.012	-0.102	-0.140
Coventry City	-0.091	-0.027	-0.117	-0.046
Portsmouth	-0.136	0.007	-0.130	0.016
Middlesbrough	-0.136	-0.001	-0.137	0.079
Bristol City	-0.182	0.003	-0.178	-0.049
Derby County	-0.227	-0.008	-0.235	-0.046
Barnsley	-0.273	0.008	-0.264	-0.022
Crystal Palace	-0.500	-0.007	-0.507	0.041
Doncaster Rovers	-0.523	0.003	-0.519	0.000
Preston North End	-0.591	-0.003	-0.594	-0.064
Sheffield United	-0.705	-0.005	-0.710	0.090
Scunthorpe United	-0.909	-0.003	-0.912	0.021

All teams have played two matches since I published my last rankings.  The Norwich/Ipswich match from 4/21 had a huge impact on each teams' ranking.  Norwich scored 8 goals in their two matches over the weekend and are now the highest scoring team in the league.  Ipswich gave up 9 goals in their two matches.

League Championship Easter Monday Results and Updated Projection

Unlike in the US, Easter Monday is a holiday in the UK.  One of the ways they celebrate is by playing soccer.  All 24 teams in the Championship played today.  Here is how they performed vs my predictions:

Burnley 1 Portsmouth 1 (-10 pts)
Scunthorpe United 1 Millwall 2 (+30 pts)
Preston North End 0 Cardiff City 1 (+15 pts)
Swansea City 4 Ipswich Town 1 (+10 pts)
Bristol City 2 Nottingham Forest 3 (-10 pts)
Leicester City 4 Watford 2 (-10 pts)
Queens Park Rangers 1 Hull City 1 (-10 pts)
Barnsley 2 Doncaster Rovers 2 (-10 pts)
Reading 2 Sheffield United 3 (-10 pts)
Norwich 3 Derby County 2 (+15 pts)
Middlesbrough 2 Coventry City 1 (-10 pts)
Crystal Palace 1 Leeds United 0 (-10 pts)

Overall score was -10 pts and I projected 4 of 12 outcomes correctly.

A victory by QPR would have clinched the title but Hull City held them to a draw.  Meanwhile Norwich and Cardiff's wins kept their title hopes alive.  Cardiff's victory over Preston North End clinched relegation for the Lillywhites.

After the jump, my updated projection.

League Championship Predictions - 4/25

The Championship is celebrating Easter Monday with a full slate of matches.  here are my predictions:

Burnley 2 Portsmouth 1
Scunthorpe United 1 Millwall 2
Preston North End 1 Cardiff City 2
Swansea City 1 Ipswich Town 0
Bristol City 1 Nottingham Forest 1
Leicester City 2 Watford 2
Queens Park Rangers 2 Hull City 1
Barnsley 2 Doncaster Rovers 1
Reading 2 Sheffield United 0
Norwich City 2 Derby County 1
Middlesbrough 1 Coventry City 1
Crystal Palace 1 Leeds United 1

If Queens Park Rangers wins tomorrow, they will be champions.  If they draw, Cardiff City and Norwich City need to win to keep their hopes alive.  Reading's title hopes were dashed over the weekend.

League Championship Predictions - 4/21

The "weekend" starts today in the Championship so here are my predictions for this round:

Ipswich Town 1  Norwich City 2
Coventry City 2  Scunthorpe United 1
Leeds United 2  Reading 2
Doncaster Rovers 2  Crystal Palace 1
Nottingham Forest 2  Leicester City 1
Portsmouth 1  Swansea City 1
Millwall 2  Preston North End 1
Hull City 1  Middlesbrough 1
Derby County 1  Burnley 1
Watford 2  Barnsley 1
Cardiff City 1  Queens Park Rangers 1
Sheffield United 1  Bristol City 2

QPR is in a position to clinch the title this weekend.  Currently, Cardiff, Norwich and Reading are the only remaining teams that can catch them.  If the results play out as projected above, Reading would be eliminated from the title hunt.  A win by QPR eliminates both Cardiff and Reading and, potentially Norwich if they don't also win.  If QPR loses, Cardiff and Norwich remain in the hunt.  Reading would then have to defeat Leeds to keep their title hopes alive.

League Championship Rankings - 4/14

Team	MOV	SOS	SRS
Queens Park Rangers	0.927	-0.023	0.904
Reading	0.585	0.017	0.602
Cardiff City	0.512	-0.003	0.509
Swansea City	0.463	0.012	0.475
Norwich City	0.439	-0.001	0.438
Millwall	0.317	0.033	0.350
Nottingham Forest	0.268	0.027	0.296
Watford	0.268	-0.013	0.255
Leeds United	0.244	-0.036	0.208
Hull City	0.098	0.011	0.108
Leicester City	0.098	-0.017	0.081
Ipswich Town	0.024	-0.008	0.017
Burnley	0.000	-0.021	-0.021
Portsmouth	-0.073	-0.013	-0.086
Coventry City	-0.098	-0.005	-0.103
Bristol City	-0.122	0.014	-0.108
Middlesbrough	-0.175	0.009	-0.166
Derby County	-0.171	-0.045	-0.216
Barnsley	-0.268	0.020	-0.248
Doncaster Rovers	-0.512	0.023	-0.489
Crystal Palace	-0.537	0.027	-0.510
Preston North End	-0.561	-0.010	-0.571
Sheffield United	-0.756	-0.002	-0.758
Scunthorpe United	-0.976	0.005	-0.971

These rankings include matches from last weekend and this past Tuesday.  Norwich dropped two spots from last week due to their loss to Swansea.  Leicester moves up three spots after their big win over Burnley, who coincidentally dropped three spots.  Coventry City also moved up three spots and seems to be revitalized after changing coaches.

League Championship SRS Rankings - 4/6

Here are the latest SRS rankings for the Championship through yesterday's games:

Team	MOV	SOS	SRS
Queens Park Rangers	1.026	0.010	1.036
Reading	0.538	0.044	0.582
Norwich City	0.538	-0.019	0.519
Cardiff City	0.436	0.020	0.456
Swansea City	0.410	-0.008	0.402
Millwall	0.308	0.036	0.343
Watford	0.308	-0.031	0.276
Nottingham Forest	0.256	0.011	0.268
Leeds United	0.308	-0.049	0.259
Burnley	0.158	-0.031	0.127
Hull City	0.077	-0.014	0.063
Ipswich Town	0.000	0.012	0.012
Portsmouth	0.000	0.008	0.008
Leicester City	0.000	-0.004	-0.004
Bristol City	-0.077	0.018	-0.059
Middlesbrough	-0.211	0.032	-0.179
Coventry City	-0.179	0.000	-0.179
Derby County	-0.205	-0.061	-0.266
Barnsley	-0.308	-0.004	-0.311
Doncaster Rovers	-0.487	0.036	-0.451
Crystal Palace	-0.538	0.029	-0.509
Preston North End	-0.590	0.005	-0.585
Sheffield United	-0.718	-0.004	-0.722
Scunthorpe United	-1.051	-0.036	-1.088

Norwich's 6-0 thrashing of Scunthorpe allowed them to move up two spots to third overall.  Millwall also moved up two spots with a quality win over Hull City.

Here are the projected rankings for the remaining games:

Team	MOV	SOS	SRS
Queens Park Rangers	1.043	-0.139	0.904
Cardiff City	0.597	-0.008	0.590
Norwich City	0.480	0.097	0.577
Reading	0.886	-0.346	0.541
Swansea City	0.320	0.184	0.504
Nottingham Forest	0.365	-0.032	0.333
Watford	0.181	0.123	0.304
Hull City	0.096	0.161	0.256
Millwall	0.582	-0.346	0.236
Leicester City	0.029	0.186	0.215
Burnley	-0.028	0.122	0.094
Leeds United	-0.201	0.273	0.072
Portsmouth	0.142	-0.102	0.041
Ipswich Town	0.008	-0.064	-0.056
Barnsley	-0.209	0.140	-0.068
Middlesbrough	-0.022	-0.067	-0.089
Derby County	-0.544	0.301	-0.243
Coventry City	-0.273	0.026	-0.247
Doncaster Rovers	-0.163	-0.079	-0.242
Bristol City	-0.176	-0.087	-0.263
Preston North End	-0.561	0.062	-0.499
Sheffield United	-0.680	0.109	-0.571
Crystal Palace	-0.521	-0.164	-0.685
Scunthorpe United	-1.344	0.229	-1.115

Millwall has the easiest remaining schedule and this should fuel their rise into the playoffs.