Premier League Post Mortem: The Defenses

Last week I posted the Offensive SRS ratings for the Premier League.  Today we will review the defenses.



Home Defensive SRS
Team	HGA	SOS	SRS
Manchester City	0.632	1.193	0.561
Manchester United	0.632	1.184	0.553
Chelsea	0.684	1.178	0.494
Liverpool	0.737	1.199	0.462
Arsenal	0.789	1.146	0.357
Blackburn Rovers	0.842	1.187	0.345
Stoke City	0.947	1.208	0.260
Aston Villa	1.000	1.184	0.184
Tottenham Hotspur	1.000	1.175	0.175
Birmingham City	1.158	1.187	0.029
Fulham	1.211	1.181	-0.029
Everton	1.211	1.178	-0.032
Bolton Wanderers	1.263	1.181	-0.082
Newcastle United	1.421	1.181	-0.240
Sunderland	1.421	1.167	-0.254
Wolverhampton Wanderers	1.579	1.170	-0.409
West Bromwich Albion	1.579	1.140	-0.439
West Ham United	1.632	1.158	-0.474
Wigan Athletic	1.789	1.152	-0.637
Blackpool	1.947	1.123	-0.825

Manchester is a tough town to score in with both City and United tying for the fewest home goals allowed.  City played a slightly tougher schedule so they get the nod as having the best defense at home.  Their rating of 0.561 is equivalent to about 11 fewer goals (19 x 0.561) than an average team would have allowed.  Overall their offense was only slightly above average so we have to give credit to their defense for carrying them into a 3rd place finish and a group spot in next season's Champions League.

Bottom of this table is Blackpool with a horrendous -0.825 rating.  They managed to allow more goals at home than any other team despite playing the lowest scoring offenses overall.  The additional 0.825 goals they allowed relative to their competition is equivalent to 16 goals over the course of the season.  This is why they deserved relegation.  Even a slight reduction in home goals allowed would have allowed them to earn enough points to avoid that fate.



Away Defensive SRS
Team	AGA	SOS	SRS
Fulham	1.053	1.658	0.605
Chelsea	1.053	1.632	0.579
Manchester City	1.105	1.643	0.538
Everton	1.158	1.649	0.491
Manchester United	1.316	1.588	0.272
Wigan Athletic	1.421	1.661	0.240
Tottenham Hotspur	1.421	1.637	0.216
Arsenal	1.474	1.626	0.152
Sunderland	1.526	1.646	0.120
Stoke City	1.579	1.626	0.047
Liverpool	1.579	1.608	0.029
Newcastle United	1.579	1.596	0.018
Bolton Wanderers	1.684	1.611	-0.073
Birmingham City	1.895	1.643	-0.251
Wolverhampton Wanderers	1.895	1.611	-0.284
West Ham United	2.053	1.620	-0.433
Aston Villa	2.105	1.611	-0.494
Blackpool	2.158	1.596	-0.561
West Bromwich Albion	2.158	1.596	-0.561
Blackburn Rovers	2.263	1.614	-0.649

Fulham and Chelsea tied for fewest goals allowed in away matches.  Fulham's tougher schedule means that they had the best defense on the road.  The Cottagers were one of three teams (Everton and Wigan the others) to allow fewer goals away than at home.  Unfortunately their excellent defense was offset by a sub par offense which prevented them from earning some valuable points on the road.

Blackburn brought up the rear in away goals allowed.  They allowed 43 on the road versus only 16 at home which is the largest differential in the league.  They were pretty successful at home and this saved them from relegation.



Total Defensive SRS
Team	GA	SOS	SRS
Manchester City	0.868	1.418	0.550
Chelsea	0.868	1.405	0.537
Manchester United	0.974	1.386	0.412
Fulham	1.132	1.420	0.288
Arsenal	1.132	1.386	0.254
Liverpool	1.158	1.404	0.246
Everton	1.184	1.414	0.230
Tottenham Hotspur	1.211	1.406	0.196
Stoke City	1.263	1.417	0.154
Sunderland	1.474	1.406	-0.067
Bolton Wanderers	1.474	1.396	-0.077
Newcastle United	1.500	1.389	-0.111
Birmingham City	1.526	1.415	-0.111
Blackburn Rovers	1.553	1.401	-0.152
Aston Villa	1.553	1.398	-0.155
Wigan Athletic	1.605	1.406	-0.199
Wolverhampton Wanderers	1.737	1.390	-0.346
West Ham United	1.842	1.389	-0.453
West Bromwich Albion	1.868	1.368	-0.500
Blackpool	2.053	1.360	-0.693

Manchester City and Chelsea tied for fewest goals allowed but Man City gets the award for best defensive team by accomplishing this record against a tougher schedule.  Blackpool gets the sack.  Despite playing the easiest schedule of opposing offenses they managed to be the only team in the league to allow over two gaols per match.  They're back where they belong in the Championship next season.

Premier League 2010-11 Post-Mortem: The Offenses

I have posted a series of tables below showing SRS rankings for goals scored at home, away and overall.  These served as the foundation for my predictions.  Here is a summary of the results:

Home Offense

Home Offensive SRS
Team	HGF	SOS	SRS
Manchester United	2.579	1.588	0.991
Newcastle United	2.158	1.596	0.561
Chelsea	2.053	1.632	0.421
Liverpool	1.947	1.608	0.339
Bolton Wanderers	1.789	1.611	0.178
Manchester City	1.789	1.643	0.146
Arsenal	1.737	1.626	0.111
Stoke City	1.632	1.626	0.006
Everton	1.632	1.649	-0.018
West Bromwich Albion	1.579	1.596	-0.018
Blackpool	1.579	1.596	-0.018
Wolverhampton Wanderers	1.579	1.611	-0.032
Tottenham Hotspur	1.579	1.637	-0.058
Fulham	1.579	1.658	-0.079
Aston Villa	1.368	1.611	-0.243
Sunderland	1.316	1.646	-0.330
West Ham United	1.263	1.620	-0.357
Blackburn Rovers	1.158	1.614	-0.456
Wigan Athletic	1.158	1.661	-0.503
Birmingham City	1.000	1.643	-0.643

Note:  HGF = home goals for, SOS = strength of schedule, SRS = Simple Ranking System

Manchester United led the league in goals scored at home with 49 or 2.579/match.  Newcastle United, with 41 goals, was the only other team to exceed 40 goals.  Man United's opponents only allowed an average of 1.588 goals/match in road games which was the lowest opponents average in the league.  In other words, at home the Red Devils faced the toughest schedule of defenses in the league.  Yet they still outscored their opponents by 0.991 goals/match which is a tremendous achievement.

Bottom of the list is Birmingham who scored only 19 home goals, exactly 1 per match.  Their opponents allowed an average of 1.643 away goals so the Blues underperformed against their competition.  An additional 0.643 goals/match would have given them 12 more goals over the course of the season which would surely have allowed them to earn enough points to avoid relegation.

Away Offense



Away Offensive SRS
Team	AGF	SOS	SRS
Arsenal	2.053	1.146	0.906
Chelsea	1.579	1.178	0.401
Manchester United	1.526	1.184	0.342
West Bromwich Albion	1.368	1.140	0.228
Blackpool	1.316	1.123	0.193
Manchester City	1.368	1.193	0.175
Tottenham Hotspur	1.316	1.175	0.140
Blackburn Rovers	1.263	1.187	0.076
Aston Villa	1.158	1.184	-0.026
Liverpool	1.158	1.199	-0.041
Sunderland	1.053	1.167	-0.114
Everton	1.053	1.178	-0.126
West Ham United	1.000	1.158	-0.158
Fulham	1.000	1.181	-0.181
Wigan Athletic	0.947	1.152	-0.205
Bolton Wanderers	0.947	1.181	-0.234
Birmingham City	0.947	1.187	-0.240
Wolverhampton Wanderers	0.842	1.170	-0.327
Newcastle United	0.789	1.181	-0.392
Stoke City	0.789	1.208	-0.418

Note:  AGF = Away Goals For

Arsenal led the league in away goals with 39 or 2.053/match.  In fact they are one of only two teams (Blackburn the other) to score more goals away than at home.  They also led the league in away points earned with 31.  Normally that's a sign of a champion, but their home performance wasn't good enough.  The Gunners were the only team with as many home losses (4) as road losses.

At the bottom, Newcastle and Stoke tied for fewest goals scored away, each with 15.  Newcastle had the biggest differential between home and away goals scored with 26 or 1.368/match.  That's a huge drop off.  It makes one wonder if there is something about St James' Park that encourages scoring.  This stadium saw the highest goals/match with 3.58 versus a league average of 2.80.  Getting back to away performance Newcastle and Stoke both underperformed their opponents by about 0.4 goals/match which would be worth about 8 goals over the season.  Not enough to send them to Europe but certainly would have moved either team up a spot or two in the tightly packed mid-table.

Overall Offense

Total Offensive SRS
Team	GF	SOS	SRS
Manchester United	2.053	1.386	0.667
Arsenal	1.895	1.386	0.509
Chelsea	1.816	1.405	0.411
Manchester City	1.579	1.418	0.161
Liverpool	1.553	1.404	0.149
West Bromwich Albion	1.474	1.368	0.105
Blackpool	1.447	1.360	0.088
Newcastle United	1.474	1.389	0.085
Tottenham Hotspur	1.447	1.406	0.041
Bolton Wanderers	1.368	1.396	-0.028
Everton	1.342	1.414	-0.072
Fulham	1.289	1.420	-0.130
Aston Villa	1.263	1.398	-0.135
Wolverhampton Wanderers	1.211	1.390	-0.180
Blackburn Rovers	1.211	1.401	-0.190
Stoke City	1.211	1.417	-0.206
Sunderland	1.184	1.406	-0.222
West Ham United	1.132	1.389	-0.257
Wigan Athletic	1.053	1.406	-0.354
Birmingham City	0.974	1.415	-0.442

No surprise that Manchester United had the best overall offense nor that Birmingham had the worst overall.  Their performance reflected their final placement in the league.  Blackpool played the toughest defenses which was a contributing factor to their relegation.  Fulham had the easiest overall schedule but still underperformed their competition.