My Thoughts on the MLS League Structure

A tough weekend for the Eastern Conference with none of their teams winning.  There is now a definite imbalance between the East and West.  Columbus leads the East with only 34 points.  This point total would be good for only 6th place in the Western conference.  I'm now questioning why the MLS is split into conferences.  The geographic alignment of "East" and "West" should encourage rivalries between conference foes, but since every team plays every other team in the league twice, teams actually play more games against the other conference (18) than against their own conference (16).  Based on the way that teams are seeded in the current playoff structure the MLS Cup will likely feature a matchup of the best team in the league (LA) against the 5th or 6th-best team (whoever comes out of the East).  This is not the marquee matchup that the league needs to generate buzz for the Cup final. 

If the league goes to a single table structure, which every other major soccer league in the world plays, they can seed the playoff teams 1 - 10 strictly on record and increase the likelihood that the two best teams in the league will meet in the MLS Cup final.  It will make the regular season more meaningful because teams will be seeded based on their performance rather than conference alignment.  For example, Colorado currently has the fourth best record in the league.  In a single-table league they would be seeded fourth.  In the current structure, although they have the 4th-best record, the three teams ahead of them are in their conference.  So Colorado has to step aside while the league allocates the next three spots to the top teams from the East, which all have a worse record than Colorado.  So the 4th-best team is relegated to a wild-card slot and has to play an extra-match while the weaker teams from the other conference get a bye.  This is certainly not fair.

With the Montreal joining the league next season, the MLS has a golden opportunity to change their league structure.  Going to a single table will, in my opinion, be better for the league.  Regular season games will be more meaningful because teams will know exactly what they need to do to finish in the top 10.  The playoffs will become more meaningful because we will have matchups based on performance rather than conference alignment.  This will lead to better matchups in the MLS Cup final which should generate more buzz for this championship.

MLS Week 19 SRS Ratings and Season Projection

Real Salt Lake's big win over San Jose had a big impact on the SRS table and the season projection.  Here are the SRS ratings:



Team	MOV	SOS	SRS	Change
Real Salt Lake	0.833	-0.015	0.818	0.208
Los Angeles	0.545	-0.023	0.522	0.033
Philadelphia	0.421	-0.006	0.415	-0.005
Seattle	0.409	-0.031	0.378	-0.010
FC Dallas	0.364	-0.035	0.329	0.005
New York	0.304	-0.021	0.284	-0.177
Chivas USA	0.190	-0.001	0.190	0.131
Columbus	0.095	-0.011	0.084	-0.024
Colorado	0.043	-0.002	0.041	0.144
Kansas City	0.050	-0.097	-0.047	0.069
San Jose	-0.143	0.080	-0.063	-0.202
Houston	-0.095	-0.006	-0.102	-0.141
Chicago	-0.250	0.033	-0.217	0.014
D.C. United	-0.316	0.042	-0.274	-0.094
New England	-0.476	0.036	-0.440	0.107
Portland	-0.526	0.077	-0.450	0.012
Vancouver	-0.429	-0.035	-0.463	0.042
Toronto FC	-0.957	0.017	-0.940	-0.045

The SRS ratings are heavily influenced by margin of victory so RSL's 4-goal margin caused the biggest swings for them and San Jose.  Let's see how it influenced the season projections:



East
Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Philadelphia	34	15	14	5	43	28	15	59
2	New York	34	11	16	7	54	42	12	49
3	Kansas City	34	11	16	7	46	40	6	49
4	Columbus	34	12	11	11	34	32	2	47
5	D.C. United	34	7	17	10	44	53	-9	38
6	Houston	34	7	15	12	36	41	-5	36
7	Chicago	34	3	22	9	35	44	-9	31
8	New England	34	4	13	17	30	46	-16	25
9	Toronto FC	34	3	12	19	28	61	-33	21
West
Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Real Salt Lake	34	17	14	3	47	22	25	65
2	Los Angeles	34	16	16	2	43	26	17	64
3	FC Dallas	34	15	13	6	43	32	11	58
4	Seattle	34	14	16	4	47	34	13	58
5	Colorado	34	9	17	8	44	43	1	44
6	Chivas USA	34	9	17	8	45	39	6	44
7	Portland	34	11	5	18	40	59	-19	38
8	San Jose	34	6	16	12	41	44	-3	34
9	Vancouver	34	3	16	15	34	48	-14	25

So I'm now projecting RSL to finish ahead of Los Angeles in the West.  The Western Conference final will be between those two teams.  With the better record RSL gets the home field advantage.  This is key because these two teams have the highest home SRS Ratings (RSL @ 1.266, LA @ 0.839) so whichever team can secure home field will be in the driver's seat for reaching the MLS Cup.  I'm still projecting Philadelphia to secure the Eastern Conference berth in the Cup final.  My new prediction for MLS Cup champion is RSL.

MLS SRS Ratings and Season Projection

Here are the updated ratings through Week 18:



Team	MOV	SOS	SRS	Change
Real Salt Lake	0.647	-0.037	0.610	-0.011
Los Angeles	0.524	-0.035	0.489	-0.001
New York	0.476	-0.015	0.461	-0.021
Philadelphia	0.421	-0.001	0.420	0.118
Seattle	0.409	-0.021	0.388	0.031
FC Dallas	0.350	-0.026	0.324	-0.028
San Jose	0.053	0.086	0.139	0.016
Columbus	0.105	0.003	0.108	-0.016
Chivas USA	0.050	0.009	0.059	0.025
Houston	0.050	-0.011	0.039	-0.013
Colorado	-0.095	-0.008	-0.103	-0.021
Kansas City	-0.053	-0.064	-0.116	0.003
D.C. United	-0.278	0.098	-0.180	0.034
Chicago	-0.250	0.019	-0.231	-0.082
Portland	-0.500	0.038	-0.462	0.077
Vancouver	-0.450	-0.055	-0.505	-0.004
New England	-0.579	0.032	-0.547	-0.120
Toronto FC	-0.905	0.010	-0.895	0.004

The results of the New England/Philadelphia match moved both teams two spots in the rankings - Philadelphia up two to 4th and the Revs down two to 17th.  The Union's victory puts them on top in the Eastern Conference, two points clear of New York.

Here are the projected standings for the season:


East
Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Philadelphia	34	17	13	4	44	26	18	64
2	New York	34	12	17	5	54	37	17	53
3	Columbus	34	12	11	11	35	32	3	47
4	Kansas City	34	9	18	7	39	36	3	45
5	D.C. United	34	7	18	9	47	53	-6	39
6	Houston	34	6	19	9	36	37	-1	37
7	Chicago	34	3	22	9	35	43	-8	31
8	New England	34	3	13	18	28	48	-20	22
9	Toronto FC	34	3	12	19	27	59	-32	21
West
Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Los Angeles	34	16	16	2	44	26	18	64
2	Real Salt Lake	34	16	15	3	44	24	20	63
3	Seattle	34	14	16	4	47	35	12	58
4	FC Dallas	34	14	12	8	41	33	8	54
5	Chivas USA	34	8	18	8	41	39	2	42
6	San Jose	34	8	17	9	42	39	3	41
7	Colorado	34	8	17	9	39	42	-3	41
8	Portland	34	9	7	18	40	60	-20	34
9	Vancouver	34	3	15	16	32	48	-16	24

I'm projecting both Los Angeles and Philadelphia to finish at 64 points, but LA already owns the tiebreaker with a win and a draw against the Union in their two matches earlier this season.  Still projecting those two to meet for the MLS Cup which I think the Galaxy will win.