Monday, March 28, 2011

Premier League SRS Rankings

In several of my posts I've made reference to a team's SRS.  This is an acronym for Simple Ranking System which is described in detail here.  Basically this method ranks teams by margin of victory (MOV) adjusted for their strength of schedule (SOS) which is equivalent to their opponents' average margin of victory.  SRS = MOV + SOS.  If a team plays mostly weak opposition their SOS tends to be negative indicating that their MOV is inflated.  A team that plays a tough schedule will have a positive SOS indicating that they are stronger than what their MOV indicates. 

So here are my rankings for the Premier League through matches ending 3/19:

Manchester United1.133-0.0951.038
Manchester City0.600-0.0170.583
Tottenham Hotspur0.2410.0040.245
Bolton Wanderers0.0330.0110.045
Newcastle United-0.033-0.030-0.063
Stoke City-0.067-0.015-0.082
Wolverhampton Wanderers-0.4670.087-0.380
Aston Villa-0.4670.053-0.414
Blackburn Rovers-0.400-0.019-0.419
Birmingham City-0.4480.021-0.427
West Ham United-0.433-0.001-0.435
West Bromwich Albion-0.5000.026-0.474
Wigan Athletic-0.7330.064-0.670

Man United has the highest MOV but also the lowest SOS meaning they have played the easiest schedule thus far.  Despite this they have the highest SRS meaning they have played the best football thus far in the EPL.  The SRS rankings above correspond pretty closely to the actual standings so I feel it's a good predictor of a team's performance.

If you read my previous posts you would have seen that I'm projecting Arsenal to win the league title, so how can I pick the third best team (second in the EPL standings) to win the league?  This table measures performance in games already played.  For games still to come we can calculate SRS based on predicted goals.  Here is the same table based on projected results for the remaining games this season:

Manchester United0.8620.0880.949
Manchester City0.572-0.0700.502
Tottenham Hotspur0.2180.0610.280
Bolton Wanderers0.001-0.035-0.034
Newcastle United-0.044-0.010-0.054
Stoke City-0.2610.089-0.173
West Ham United-0.3050.129-0.175
Aston Villa-0.247-0.067-0.313
Blackburn Rovers-0.5140.186-0.329
Wolverhampton Wanderers-0.256-0.194-0.449
West Bromwich Albion-0.5160.043-0.473
Birmingham City-0.6400.045-0.595
Wigan Athletic-0.698-0.041-0.738

Projecting Arsenal to finish very strong.  Man United has a much tougher remaining schedule including games at Arsenal and home against Chelsea.  These rankings align very closely with my projected standings.

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