Premier League SRS Rankings

In several of my posts I've made reference to a team's SRS.  This is an acronym for Simple Ranking System which is described in detail here.  Basically this method ranks teams by margin of victory (MOV) adjusted for their strength of schedule (SOS) which is equivalent to their opponents' average margin of victory.  SRS = MOV + SOS.  If a team plays mostly weak opposition their SOS tends to be negative indicating that their MOV is inflated.  A team that plays a tough schedule will have a positive SOS indicating that they are stronger than what their MOV indicates. 

So here are my rankings for the Premier League through matches ending 3/19:

Team	MOV	SOS	SRS
Manchester United	1.133	-0.095	1.038
Chelsea	1.000	-0.037	0.963
Arsenal	1.034	-0.072	0.962
Manchester City	0.600	-0.017	0.583
Tottenham Hotspur	0.241	0.004	0.245
Liverpool	0.167	-0.021	0.145
Bolton Wanderers	0.033	0.011	0.045
Everton	0.033	-0.004	0.030
Fulham	0.000	-0.023	-0.023
Sunderland	-0.133	0.078	-0.055
Newcastle United	-0.033	-0.030	-0.063
Stoke City	-0.067	-0.015	-0.082
Wolverhampton Wanderers	-0.467	0.087	-0.380
Aston Villa	-0.467	0.053	-0.414
Blackburn Rovers	-0.400	-0.019	-0.419
Birmingham City	-0.448	0.021	-0.427
West Ham United	-0.433	-0.001	-0.435
West Bromwich Albion	-0.500	0.026	-0.474
Blackpool	-0.500	-0.016	-0.516
Wigan Athletic	-0.733	0.064	-0.670

Man United has the highest MOV but also the lowest SOS meaning they have played the easiest schedule thus far.  Despite this they have the highest SRS meaning they have played the best football thus far in the EPL.  The SRS rankings above correspond pretty closely to the actual standings so I feel it's a good predictor of a team's performance.

If you read my previous posts you would have seen that I'm projecting Arsenal to win the league title, so how can I pick the third best team (second in the EPL standings) to win the league?  This table measures performance in games already played.  For games still to come we can calculate SRS based on predicted goals.  Here is the same table based on projected results for the remaining games this season:

Team	MOV	SOS	SRS
Arsenal	1.211	0.016	1.227
Manchester United	0.862	0.088	0.949
Chelsea	0.998	-0.090	0.908
Manchester City	0.572	-0.070	0.502
Tottenham Hotspur	0.218	0.061	0.280
Liverpool	0.097	0.053	0.151
Everton	0.053	0.021	0.074
Bolton Wanderers	0.001	-0.035	-0.034
Newcastle United	-0.044	-0.010	-0.054
Fulham	-0.171	0.102	-0.068
Sunderland	0.121	-0.244	-0.122
Stoke City	-0.261	0.089	-0.173
West Ham United	-0.305	0.129	-0.175
Aston Villa	-0.247	-0.067	-0.313
Blackburn Rovers	-0.514	0.186	-0.329
Wolverhampton Wanderers	-0.256	-0.194	-0.449
West Bromwich Albion	-0.516	0.043	-0.473
Blackpool	-0.706	0.201	-0.505
Birmingham City	-0.640	0.045	-0.595
Wigan Athletic	-0.698	-0.041	-0.738

Projecting Arsenal to finish very strong.  Man United has a much tougher remaining schedule including games at Arsenal and home against Chelsea.  These rankings align very closely with my projected standings.