MLS Weekend Wrapup and SRS Rankings

Last weekend's scoring drought is past us.  This weekend featured 24 goals in 9 matches or 2.67 goals per game which is above the league average of 2.38 goals/game.  The drought ended in more ways than one as the Cascadia Derby between Seattle and Portland ended up in a rain-soaked 1-1 draw.  Other highlights of the weekend included a hat trick by Chivas' Justin Braun which led them to a shocking 3-2 upset of the Red Bulls in New York.  Landon Donavan continued his scoring streak by netting two goals in LA's 4-1 victory over Sporting KC. 

Here is a recap of my predictions for the weekend:

Predicted Score				Actual Score				Points
Toronto FC	1	Chicago	1	Toronto FC	2	Chicago	2	20
New England	1	Vancouver	1	New England	1	Vancouver	0	-10
D.C. United	1	Colorado	1	D.C. United	1	Colorado	1	30
FC Dallas	0	Philadelphia	0	FC Dallas	2	Philadelphia	0	-10
Real Salt Lake	2	Houston	1	Real Salt Lake	0	Houston	0	-10
San Jose	1	Columbus	1	San Jose	3	Columbus	0	-10
Los Angeles	2	Kansas City	1	Los Angeles	4	Kansas City	1	10
Seattle	2	Portland	0	Seattle	1	Portland	1	-10
New York	1	Chivas USA	0	New York	2	Chivas USA	3	-10
								0

My total score for the week was zero points.  I predicted 3 of 9 outcomes and 1 of 9 final scores correctly.  Since I started my predictions in late April I have scored -50 points in 38 matches or -1.32/match.  Of the 38 matches I've had 13 correct outcomes (34.2%) and 2 correct final scores (5.3%). 

My SRS rankings are listed after the jump
 

Team	MOV	SOS	SRS	Change
Real Salt Lake	1.000	0.183	1.183	0.007
New York	0.778	0.030	0.808	-0.276
Los Angeles	0.417	0.020	0.436	0.132
Houston	0.300	0.051	0.351	0.052
Colorado	0.200	0.071	0.271	-0.025
Philadelphia	0.000	0.209	0.209	-0.185
Chivas USA	0.222	-0.020	0.202	0.170
Seattle	0.182	0.006	0.188	-0.060
FC Dallas	0.300	-0.150	0.150	0.282
San Jose	-0.111	0.167	0.056	0.349
Portland	-0.222	0.114	-0.108	0.061
Columbus	-0.111	-0.126	-0.237	-0.452
New England	-0.300	-0.059	-0.359	0.097
D.C. United	-0.500	0.059	-0.441	0.035
Chicago	-0.333	-0.109	-0.442	-0.024
Vancouver	-0.364	-0.245	-0.608	-0.109
Toronto FC	-0.545	-0.077	-0.622	0.089
Kansas City	-0.857	-0.041	-0.898	-0.381

Because margin of victory is the biggest driver of SRS it is perhaps too easily influenced by blowouts especially early in the season.  Case in point was San Jose's 3-0 thrashing of Columbus which led to these two teams having the largest changes in SRS.  Real Salt Lake remains on top despite their recent struggles.  This is due to their defense which has only allowed 2 goals in 7 matches so far this season.