Thursday, June 2, 2011

Impact of Promotion from Championship to Premier League - Part II

Yesterday I posted about the changes in promoted teams' stats in their first season in the Premier League.  On average, newly promoted teams reduce goals scored by 0.55/game, increase goals allowed by 0.60/game and reduce their points earned by 0.81/game.  I now want to apply those rates against the Championship stats of the three promoted teams to estimate how they will fare next season.

First, Queens Park Rangers with 88 pts,  71 goals scored and 32 goals allowed.  They averaged 88/46 or 1.91 points/match.  If we reduce this rate by 0.81 then they would earn 1.11 points/match in the Premier League or 42 points over a 38-game season.  This would most likely guarantee survival as only two teams have been relegated with as many as 42 points (Middlesborough 1997 and West Ham 2003) since the league went to 20 teams in 1996.  Their goal scoring rate would decline from 1.54 to 1.00/game or 38 goals.  Goals allowed would increase from 0.70 to 1.30 goals/match or 49 goals for the season.  The table below summarizes each team's projected results:

Queens Park RangersChampionship2010-1146887132
Norwich CityChampionship2010-1146848358
Swansea CityChampionship2010-1146806943

So I would expect QPR to survive.  The odds for Norwich and Swansea are not as good.  40 points is generally considered the safety threshold, but teams have survived with as little as 34 points (West Brom 2005).  Norwich has a decent chance of avoiding relegation at 39 points but I can't see Swansea  also surviving at 35 points.  Only in 2001 did all three promoted teams avoid relegation.  So my prediction is that QPR will survive, Norwich has a 50/50 chance and Swansea will be relegated.

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