Showing posts with label Blackburn Rovers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Blackburn Rovers. Show all posts

Tuesday, June 14, 2011

Premier League Post Mortem: The Defenses

Last week I posted the Offensive SRS ratings for the Premier League.  Today we will review the defenses.


Home Defensive SRS
Team
HGA
SOS
SRS
Manchester City0.6321.1930.561
Manchester United0.6321.1840.553
Chelsea0.6841.1780.494
Liverpool0.7371.1990.462
Arsenal0.7891.1460.357
Blackburn Rovers0.8421.1870.345
Stoke City0.9471.2080.260
Aston Villa1.0001.1840.184
Tottenham Hotspur1.0001.1750.175
Birmingham City1.1581.1870.029
Fulham1.2111.181-0.029
Everton1.2111.178-0.032
Bolton Wanderers1.2631.181-0.082
Newcastle United1.4211.181-0.240
Sunderland1.4211.167-0.254
Wolverhampton Wanderers1.5791.170-0.409
West Bromwich Albion1.5791.140-0.439
West Ham United1.6321.158-0.474
Wigan Athletic1.7891.152-0.637
Blackpool1.9471.123-0.825

Manchester is a tough town to score in with both City and United tying for the fewest home goals allowed.  City played a slightly tougher schedule so they get the nod as having the best defense at home.  Their rating of 0.561 is equivalent to about 11 fewer goals (19 x 0.561) than an average team would have allowed.  Overall their offense was only slightly above average so we have to give credit to their defense for carrying them into a 3rd place finish and a group spot in next season's Champions League.

Bottom of this table is Blackpool with a horrendous -0.825 rating.  They managed to allow more goals at home than any other team despite playing the lowest scoring offenses overall.  The additional 0.825 goals they allowed relative to their competition is equivalent to 16 goals over the course of the season.  This is why they deserved relegation.  Even a slight reduction in home goals allowed would have allowed them to earn enough points to avoid that fate.


Away Defensive SRS
Team
AGA
SOS
SRS
Fulham1.0531.6580.605
Chelsea1.0531.6320.579
Manchester City1.1051.6430.538
Everton1.1581.6490.491
Manchester United1.3161.5880.272
Wigan Athletic1.4211.6610.240
Tottenham Hotspur1.4211.6370.216
Arsenal1.4741.6260.152
Sunderland1.5261.6460.120
Stoke City1.5791.6260.047
Liverpool1.5791.6080.029
Newcastle United1.5791.5960.018
Bolton Wanderers1.6841.611-0.073
Birmingham City1.8951.643-0.251
Wolverhampton Wanderers1.8951.611-0.284
West Ham United2.0531.620-0.433
Aston Villa2.1051.611-0.494
Blackpool2.1581.596-0.561
West Bromwich Albion2.1581.596-0.561
Blackburn Rovers2.2631.614-0.649

Fulham and Chelsea tied for fewest goals allowed in away matches.  Fulham's tougher schedule means that they had the best defense on the road.  The Cottagers were one of three teams (Everton and Wigan the others) to allow fewer goals away than at home.  Unfortunately their excellent defense was offset by a sub par offense which prevented them from earning some valuable points on the road.

Blackburn brought up the rear in away goals allowed.  They allowed 43 on the road versus only 16 at home which is the largest differential in the league.  They were pretty successful at home and this saved them from relegation.


Total Defensive SRS
Team
GA
SOS
SRS
Manchester City0.8681.4180.550
Chelsea0.8681.4050.537
Manchester United0.9741.3860.412
Fulham1.1321.4200.288
Arsenal1.1321.3860.254
Liverpool1.1581.4040.246
Everton1.1841.4140.230
Tottenham Hotspur1.2111.4060.196
Stoke City1.2631.4170.154
Sunderland1.4741.406-0.067
Bolton Wanderers1.4741.396-0.077
Newcastle United1.5001.389-0.111
Birmingham City1.5261.415-0.111
Blackburn Rovers1.5531.401-0.152
Aston Villa1.5531.398-0.155
Wigan Athletic1.6051.406-0.199
Wolverhampton Wanderers1.7371.390-0.346
West Ham United1.8421.389-0.453
West Bromwich Albion1.8681.368-0.500
Blackpool2.0531.360-0.693

Manchester City and Chelsea tied for fewest goals allowed but Man City gets the award for best defensive team by accomplishing this record against a tougher schedule.  Blackpool gets the sack.  Despite playing the easiest schedule of opposing offenses they managed to be the only team in the league to allow over two gaols per match.  They're back where they belong in the Championship next season.

Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Premier League Wrapup and SRS Rankings

It certainly was an eventful weekend in the city of Manchester.  Manchester United clinched their 19th league championship breaking a tie with Liverpool for most all-time titles.  Manchester City defeated Stoke City on Saturday to win the FA Cup.  This was their 5th cup overall and first since 1969.  These two teams happened to have a rematch on Tuesday which was their rescheduled Premier League match.  Man City thrashed Stoke City 3-0 and moved one point ahead of Arsenal into 3rd place in the league.  The top 3 finishers in the Premier are automatically placed in the group stage of next season's Champions League.  4th place has to play through the qualifying rounds to earn a place in the group stage. 

Man City visits Bolton on Saturday while Arsenal travels to Fulham.  Here are the possible scenarios:

Man City win:  they clinch 3rd place and Arsenal ends up 4th.
Man City draw:  City clinches 3rd with an Arsenal loss or draw.  An Arsenal win gives them 3rd place.
Man City loss:  City clinches 3rd if Arsenal also loses.  Arsenal will clinch 3rd with a win or a draw (due to goal differential tiebreaker).

The 5th spot, which qualifies for the Europa League, is also in play between Tottenham and Liverpool with the Spurs holding a one-point edge.  Tottenham's victory at Liverpool last weekend puts them in the drivers seat.  They host Birmingham on Saturday while Liverpool visits Aston Villa.  These are the scenarios:

Tottenham win:  they clinch 5th place.
Tottenham draw:  Spurs clinch 5th with a Liverpool loss or draw.  Liverpool would need a win to pass them.
Tottenham loss:  Spurs clinch 5th if Liverpool also loses.  Liverpool will clinch 5th with a win or a draw (due to goal differential tiebreaker).

At the bottom of the table West Ham clinched relegation over the weekend and promptly fired their manager.  There are still five teams (Wolves, Blackburn, Birmingham, Blackpool and Wigan) that are in danger of filling the last two relegation spots.  There are myriad scenarios so I won't list them all.  I can say that if there is a winner in the Wolves vs Blackburn match, that team will be safe.  Otherwise, each team's fate is dependent on the outcome of other matches.

The latest SRS rankings are after the jump: