MLS Week 21 Recap

Had a so-so week with my predictions as you can see below:



Predicted Score				Actual Score				Points
Colorado	1	Columbus	1	Colorado	2	Columbus	0	-10
D.C. United	2	Toronto FC	1	D.C. United	3	Toronto FC	3	-10
New England	1	Chivas USA	2	New  England	2	Chivas USA	3	15
Philadelphia	1	Houston	0	Philadelphia	1	Houston	1	-10
Kansas City	1	Seattle	1	Kansas City	1	Seattle	2	-10
Real Salt Lake	2	New York	1	Real Salt Lake	3	New York	0	10
Los Angeles	1	FC Dallas	0	Los Angeles	3	FC Dallas	1	10
San Jose	2	Portland	1	San Jose	1	Portland	1	-10
Vancouver	1	Chicago	1	Vancouver	4	Chicago	2	-10
						Total		-25

My accuracy was 3 for 9 on the outcomes and I did not predict any scores correctly.  My outcome accuracy is now 39.6% for the season.  Let's see how the new SRS ratings look:



Team	MOV	SOS	SRS	Change
Real Salt Lake	0.667	-0.008	0.659	-0.011
Los Angeles	0.600	-0.043	0.557	-0.096
Seattle	0.333	-0.016	0.318	0.034
FC Dallas	0.292	0.015	0.307	-0.067
Philadelphia	0.318	-0.016	0.302	-0.034
Colorado	0.160	0.028	0.188	0.077
New York	0.167	0.020	0.186	-0.107
Chivas USA	0.174	-0.018	0.156	0.010
Columbus	0.087	0.037	0.124	-0.081
Houston	0.000	0.024	0.024	0.005
Kansas City	0.087	-0.065	0.022	0.102
D.C. United	-0.190	-0.010	-0.201	-0.057
San Jose	-0.217	0.009	-0.209	-0.024
Portland	-0.318	0.027	-0.291	0.183
Chicago	-0.318	0.020	-0.298	-0.079
New England	-0.478	0.041	-0.438	-0.017
Vancouver	-0.478	-0.039	-0.517	0.092
Toronto FC	-0.880	-0.011	-0.891	0.029

Both Real Salt Lake and Los Angeles won one and lost one last week.  However, LA's loss to Portland hurt their SRS rating more than RSL's loss to Columbus due to Portland being the weaker team.  Conversely, Portland's victory over LA allowed them to register the biggest gain in the ratings.

MLS Week 16 Predictions

Normally the 4th of July weekend is full of fireworks.  This season in the MLS, not so much.  However, I do expect one match to feature a ton of scoring - Portland vs Kansas City on July 2nd.  Portland is leading the league in goals at home, averaging 1.875 per match.  Jeld-Wen Stadium, Portland's home pitch, has been the highest scoring venue in the league with 3.25 goals per match which is well above the league average of 2.42 per match.  Some claim that the size of their field is a factor.  There may be something to this as Portland is the lowest scoring team in the league on the road (0.429 per match) and also allows the most goals per match on the road (2.143).  On the other side of the pitch, Kansas City's road matches have averaged 3 goals per match which is second only to Chivas (3.125).  Sporting KC is one of the better teams at road scoring and also one of the worst at allowing goals on the road.  So I expect a lot of offense in this match and am predicting a final score of Portland 3 Kansas City 2.

Here are the rest of my predictions for the weekend:



Predicted Score
Toronto FC	1	Vancouver	1
D.C. United	1	Philadelphia	2
FC Dallas	1	Columbus	0
Chivas USA	1	Chicago	1
San Jose	1	New York	1
Colorado	1	Houston	1
Real Salt Lake	2	New England	0
Los Angeles	1	Seattle	1

MLS Week 14 Wrapup and SRS Rankings

Another low-scoring weekend for the MLS with only 22 goals in 9 matches or 2.44/match.  That's including the 6-goal outburst in the Portland/New York match.  Thankfully there were no 0-0 draws. 

I had a so-so week for my predictions as you can see below:



Predicted Score				Actual Score				Points
Kansas City	0	San Jose	0	Kansas City	1	San Jose	0	-10
Toronto FC	1	Seattle	2	Toronto FC	0	Seattle	1	15
New England	1	Chicago	1	New England	1	Chicago	1	30
Houston	2	Columbus	0	Houston	0	Columbus	2	-10
Real Salt Lake	2	D.C. United	1	Real Salt Lake	1	D.C. United	1	-10
Colorado	1	Los Angeles	1	Colorado	1	Los Angeles	3	-10
Vancouver	1	Philadelphia	2	Vancouver	1	Philadelphia	0	-10
Chivas USA	1	FC Dallas	1	Chivas USA	1	FC Dallas	2	-10
Portland	1	New York	1	Portland	3	New York	3	20
							Total	5

Correctly picked 3 of 9 outcomes and 1 score.  For the year my accuracy is 37.1% for outcomes and 9.0% for scores.

There are three midweek games.  here are my predictions for those:

Predicted Score
Philadelphia	2	Kansas City	1
Chicago	1	Real Salt Lake	1
Seattle	1	New York	2

My SRS predictions are after the jump:

MLS Weekend Wrapup and SRS Rankings

Last weekend's scoring drought is past us.  This weekend featured 24 goals in 9 matches or 2.67 goals per game which is above the league average of 2.38 goals/game.  The drought ended in more ways than one as the Cascadia Derby between Seattle and Portland ended up in a rain-soaked 1-1 draw.  Other highlights of the weekend included a hat trick by Chivas' Justin Braun which led them to a shocking 3-2 upset of the Red Bulls in New York.  Landon Donavan continued his scoring streak by netting two goals in LA's 4-1 victory over Sporting KC. 

Here is a recap of my predictions for the weekend:

Predicted Score				Actual Score				Points
Toronto FC	1	Chicago	1	Toronto FC	2	Chicago	2	20
New England	1	Vancouver	1	New England	1	Vancouver	0	-10
D.C. United	1	Colorado	1	D.C. United	1	Colorado	1	30
FC Dallas	0	Philadelphia	0	FC Dallas	2	Philadelphia	0	-10
Real Salt Lake	2	Houston	1	Real Salt Lake	0	Houston	0	-10
San Jose	1	Columbus	1	San Jose	3	Columbus	0	-10
Los Angeles	2	Kansas City	1	Los Angeles	4	Kansas City	1	10
Seattle	2	Portland	0	Seattle	1	Portland	1	-10
New York	1	Chivas USA	0	New York	2	Chivas USA	3	-10
								0

My total score for the week was zero points.  I predicted 3 of 9 outcomes and 1 of 9 final scores correctly.  Since I started my predictions in late April I have scored -50 points in 38 matches or -1.32/match.  Of the 38 matches I've had 13 correct outcomes (34.2%) and 2 correct final scores (5.3%). 

My SRS rankings are listed after the jump