MLS Week 18 Predictions

Once again there are only eight matches this weekend with Los Angeles and Toronto FC sitting idle.  Here are my predictions:



Predicted Score
Vancouver	1	Real Salt Lake	1
Seattle	1	Colorado	1
Columbus	2	San Jose	1
Chicago	2	Portland	0
Houston	2	Kansas City	2
FC Dallas	2	D.C. United	1
Chivas USA	1	New York	1
New England	1	Philadelphia	1

I think the best matchup will be Chivas vs New York.  In their previous matchup, Chivas shocked the Red Bulls at home thanks to a Justin Braun hat trick.  Braun has scored only one other goal the rest of the season so don't expect a repeat performance.  New York is the highest scoring team in the league overall (1.7 goals/match) and on the road (1.6 goals/match) but Chivas has been stingy at home allowing 0.9 goals/match.  On offense, Chivas has struggled to score at home with 1.1 goals per match which is actually lower than their road scoring average of 1.4 goals/match.  RBNY's road defense has been their Achilles heel, allowing 1.5 goals/match.

The outcome of this match could have big playoff implications.  New York and Philadelphia are neck-and-neck for the Eastern Conference title.  Anything less than a point for the Red Bulls will hurt their chances of winning the conference.  I'm currently projecting Chivas for the final playoff spot.  Anything less than a point puts their playoff hopes in limbo.

MLS Week 16 Predictions

Normally the 4th of July weekend is full of fireworks.  This season in the MLS, not so much.  However, I do expect one match to feature a ton of scoring - Portland vs Kansas City on July 2nd.  Portland is leading the league in goals at home, averaging 1.875 per match.  Jeld-Wen Stadium, Portland's home pitch, has been the highest scoring venue in the league with 3.25 goals per match which is well above the league average of 2.42 per match.  Some claim that the size of their field is a factor.  There may be something to this as Portland is the lowest scoring team in the league on the road (0.429 per match) and also allows the most goals per match on the road (2.143).  On the other side of the pitch, Kansas City's road matches have averaged 3 goals per match which is second only to Chivas (3.125).  Sporting KC is one of the better teams at road scoring and also one of the worst at allowing goals on the road.  So I expect a lot of offense in this match and am predicting a final score of Portland 3 Kansas City 2.

Here are the rest of my predictions for the weekend:



Predicted Score
Toronto FC	1	Vancouver	1
D.C. United	1	Philadelphia	2
FC Dallas	1	Columbus	0
Chivas USA	1	Chicago	1
San Jose	1	New York	1
Colorado	1	Houston	1
Real Salt Lake	2	New England	0
Los Angeles	1	Seattle	1

MLS SRS Rankings and Weekend Predictions

Here are the latest MLS rankings through the 5/11 matches.  Change is versus my last rankings posted on 5/3:

Team	MOV	SOS	SRS	Change
Real Salt Lake	1.167	0.009	1.176	0.075
New York	1.000	0.084	1.084	-0.236
Philadelphia	0.250	0.144	0.394	-0.484
Los Angeles	0.182	0.122	0.304	0.171
Houston	0.333	-0.034	0.299	-0.500
Colorado	0.222	0.074	0.296	0.100
Seattle	0.200	0.048	0.248	-0.331
Columbus	0.250	-0.035	0.215	0.054
Chivas USA	0.125	-0.093	0.032	0.088
FC Dallas	0.111	-0.244	-0.132	0.070
Portland	-0.250	0.081	-0.169	0.296
San Jose	-0.500	0.207	-0.293	-0.087
Chicago	-0.375	-0.043	-0.418	-0.015
New England	-0.444	-0.012	-0.456	0.095
D.C. United	-0.556	0.080	-0.476	0.318
Vancouver	-0.300	-0.199	-0.499	-0.060
Kansas City	-0.500	-0.017	-0.517	-0.021
Toronto FC	-0.600	-0.111	-0.711	0.305

RSL returns to the top after their victory over Chivas.  New York was predicted to beat LA so their draw penalized them enough to drop into second.  Houston's rating dropped half a point due to two losses including one to bottom-of-the-table Toronto.  D.C. United's improvement was driven by their performance against Seattle (win) and FC Dallas (draw), two matches they were projected to lose.

My predictions for the weekend after the jump