League Championship Projection 4/13

Based on the latest round of matches completed 4/12, here are my latest projections for the Championship:

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA		GD	Pts
1	Queens Park Rangers	46	26	15	5	73	31		42	93
2	Norwich City	46	23	15	8	79	57		22	84
3	Cardiff City	46	24	11	11	78	53		25	83
4	Reading	46	22	16	8	80	51		29	82
5	Swansea City	46	23	9	14	65	44		21	78
6	Millwall	46	19	15	12	62	46		16	72
7	Nottingham Forest	46	18	17	11	61	48		13	71
8	Leeds United	46	18	16	12	84	76		8	70
9	Hull City	46	17	17	12	50	45		5	68
10	Watford	46	17	15	14	80	68		12	66
11	Leicester City	46	17	12	17	70	69		1	63
12	Burnley	46	15	17	14	64	63		1	62
13	Portsmouth	46	16	13	17	58	61		-3	61
14	Bristol City	46	16	13	17	59	65		-6	61
15	Ipswich Town	46	16	11	19	61	61		0	59
16	Middlesbrough	46	15	13	18	63	69		-6	58
17	Barnsley	46	14	13	19	56	68		-12	55
18	Coventry City	46	14	12	20	54	59		-5	54
19	Derby County	46	13	11	22	58	69		-11	50
20	Doncaster Rovers	46	12	13	21	57	79		-22	49
21	Crystal Palace	46	12	12	22	46	69		-23	48
22	Preston North End	46	8	14	24	53	79		-26	38
23	Sheffield United	46	9	10	27	39	74		-35	37
24	Scunthorpe United	46	11	4	31	40	86		-46	37

The biggest winner was Hull City who moved up two spots to ninth.  I projected they would draw at Watford and lose at Swansea.  Instead they beat the Hornets and drew against the Swans, picking up three points in their projection.

The biggest loser was Portsmouth who dropped three spots to 13th.  Their latest projection of 61 points is 5 points worse than previous.  They have been struggling against the bottom-half of the table managing a draw against Preston and losing to Coventry.

No change in the playoff zone with the same matchups as before.  Again I am predicting that Reading will beat Cardiff in the playoff final.

League Championship Results 4/2 & 4/4

Let's see how last week's predictions turned out for the Championship:

Middlesbrough 3 Leicester 3
Predicted Boro to win 2-1:  -10 pts

Reading 2 Portsmouth 0
Predicted Reading 2-1:  +10 pts

Leeds 4 Nottingham 1
Predicted a 2-2 draw.  Nottingham's lost point could cost them a playoff spot:  -10 pts.

Coventry 2 Watford 0
Pretty impressive result for Coventry.  Watford is the highest scoring road team in the league.  Predicted a 2-1 win for Watford:  -10 pts.

Burnley 1 Ipswich 2
Predicted a 1-1 draw:  -10 pts.

Hull 0 Millwall 1
Predicted a 0-0 draw.  This is a big win for Millwall.  The two points they gain will put them into the playoffs in my next projection:  -10 pts for the prediction.

Cardiff 4 Derby 1
Predicted Cardiff 2-1:  +10 pts

Bristol 1 Doncaster 0
Predicted a 2-2 draw:  -10 pts.

Norwich 6 Scunthorpe 0
The Canaries beat up on the worst team in the league.  Predicted a 2-1 victory for Norwich:  +10 pts

Preston 2 Swansea 1
The opposite of my prediction:  -10 pts

Crystal Palace 2 Barnsley 1
This is exaclty what I predicted:  +30 pts.

QPR 3 Sheffield 0
Predicted a 2-0 victory for the Rangers:  +10 pts.

Final result:  0 pts so basically broke even.  Scored +15 two weeks ago so still ahead overall.

Here is a quick prediction for the April 5th match between Reading and Preston which was rescheduled due to Reading's FA Cup schedule:

Reading 2 Preston 1

Will be back later this week with an updated projection for the table.

League Championship Projection - 3/21/11

Here is my latest projection of the League Championship final table through games of 3/19:

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA		GD	Pts
1	Queens Park Rangers	46	26	16	4	73	27		46	94
2	Norwich City	46	22	17	7	75	56		19	83
3	Cardiff City	46	23	12	11	73	54		19	81
4	Swansea City	46	24	9	13	63	44		19	81
5	Reading	46	21	17	8	77	51		26	80
6	Nottingham Forest	46	18	20	8	58	43		15	74
7	Watford	46	18	16	12	82	66		16	70
8	Millwall	46	18	16	12	62	48		14	70
9	Leeds United	46	16	20	10	81	74		7	68
10	Burnley	46	16	19	11	66	59		7	67
11	Hull City	46	16	18	12	51	46		5	66
12	Portsmouth	46	18	12	16	61	59		2	66
13	Leicester City	46	17	11	18	67	68		-1	62
14	Ipswich Town	46	15	12	19	58	59		-1	57
15	Bristol City	46	14	15	17	60	65		-5	57
16	Middlesbrough	46	15	12	19	58	66		-8	57
17	Barnsley	46	13	15	18	54	67		-13	54
18	Doncaster Rovers	46	12	15	19	60	79		-19	51
19	Derby County	46	12	12	22	57	66		-9	48
20	Crystal Palace	46	12	11	23	46	70		-24	47
21	Coventry City	46	11	13	22	49	62		-13	46
22	Sheffield United	46	9	12	25	41	72		-31	39
23	Scunthorpe United	46	10	5	31	37	82		-45	35
24	Preston North End	46	7	13	26	52	81		-29	34

The top five spots remain unchanged.  Nottingham Forest moved up to 6th and Watford drops out of the playoffs.  Although both teams lost this past weekend, Watford's loss hurts their projection more because they were expected to beat Middlesbrough while Forest was expected to lose to Swansea.

The projected playoff final is now Reading vs Cardiff with Reading projected to move on to the Premier League.