MLS Season Projection Week 20

After a weekend full of upsets we have quite a shake-up in the season projection.  Here are the projected standings based on results through week 20:



East
Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Philadelphia	34	13	16	5	42	29	13	55
2	Columbus	34	12	14	8	37	29	8	50
3	New York	34	11	16	7	54	42	12	49
4	D.C. United	34	10	16	8	46	49	-3	46
5	Kansas City	34	8	19	7	45	41	4	43
6	Houston	34	9	13	12	39	40	-1	40
7	Chicago	34	3	20	11	35	44	-9	29
8	New England	34	4	15	15	30	45	-15	27
9	Toronto FC	34	3	13	18	30	60	-30	22
West
Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Los Angeles	34	18	14	2	47	25	22	68
2	Real Salt Lake	34	16	14	4	45	25	20	62
3	FC Dallas	34	16	12	6	43	30	13	60
4	Seattle	34	14	15	5	47	37	10	57
5	Colorado	34	10	17	7	46	42	4	47
6	Chivas USA	34	9	16	9	42	38	4	43
7	San Jose	34	6	15	13	38	47	-9	33
8	Portland	34	9	6	19	39	58	-19	33
9	Vancouver	34	3	13	18	32	52	-20	22

Los Angeles moves ahead of RSL for the Western Conference title and best record in the league.  In the East, Columbus is now projected to finish 2nd with D.C. United moving up to 4th and Kansas City dropping out of the top three into 5th.  I'm now projecting United to make the playoffs as a wild card along with KC.  The MLS Cup final will be Los Angeles vs Philadelphia.  Since it will be played at the Home Depot Center, it will effectively be a home game for the Galaxy so I project them to win the Cup.

MLS Week 19 SRS Ratings and Season Projection

Real Salt Lake's big win over San Jose had a big impact on the SRS table and the season projection.  Here are the SRS ratings:



Team	MOV	SOS	SRS	Change
Real Salt Lake	0.833	-0.015	0.818	0.208
Los Angeles	0.545	-0.023	0.522	0.033
Philadelphia	0.421	-0.006	0.415	-0.005
Seattle	0.409	-0.031	0.378	-0.010
FC Dallas	0.364	-0.035	0.329	0.005
New York	0.304	-0.021	0.284	-0.177
Chivas USA	0.190	-0.001	0.190	0.131
Columbus	0.095	-0.011	0.084	-0.024
Colorado	0.043	-0.002	0.041	0.144
Kansas City	0.050	-0.097	-0.047	0.069
San Jose	-0.143	0.080	-0.063	-0.202
Houston	-0.095	-0.006	-0.102	-0.141
Chicago	-0.250	0.033	-0.217	0.014
D.C. United	-0.316	0.042	-0.274	-0.094
New England	-0.476	0.036	-0.440	0.107
Portland	-0.526	0.077	-0.450	0.012
Vancouver	-0.429	-0.035	-0.463	0.042
Toronto FC	-0.957	0.017	-0.940	-0.045

The SRS ratings are heavily influenced by margin of victory so RSL's 4-goal margin caused the biggest swings for them and San Jose.  Let's see how it influenced the season projections:



East
Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Philadelphia	34	15	14	5	43	28	15	59
2	New York	34	11	16	7	54	42	12	49
3	Kansas City	34	11	16	7	46	40	6	49
4	Columbus	34	12	11	11	34	32	2	47
5	D.C. United	34	7	17	10	44	53	-9	38
6	Houston	34	7	15	12	36	41	-5	36
7	Chicago	34	3	22	9	35	44	-9	31
8	New England	34	4	13	17	30	46	-16	25
9	Toronto FC	34	3	12	19	28	61	-33	21
West
Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Real Salt Lake	34	17	14	3	47	22	25	65
2	Los Angeles	34	16	16	2	43	26	17	64
3	FC Dallas	34	15	13	6	43	32	11	58
4	Seattle	34	14	16	4	47	34	13	58
5	Colorado	34	9	17	8	44	43	1	44
6	Chivas USA	34	9	17	8	45	39	6	44
7	Portland	34	11	5	18	40	59	-19	38
8	San Jose	34	6	16	12	41	44	-3	34
9	Vancouver	34	3	16	15	34	48	-14	25

So I'm now projecting RSL to finish ahead of Los Angeles in the West.  The Western Conference final will be between those two teams.  With the better record RSL gets the home field advantage.  This is key because these two teams have the highest home SRS Ratings (RSL @ 1.266, LA @ 0.839) so whichever team can secure home field will be in the driver's seat for reaching the MLS Cup.  I'm still projecting Philadelphia to secure the Eastern Conference berth in the Cup final.  My new prediction for MLS Cup champion is RSL.