Marginal Goal Analysis - Philadelphia Union

Since I'm projecting them as an MLS Cup finalist, I thought it was time to do a marginal goal analysis for the Union.  Here are the results for their MLS matches through 7/17:

 

Player	Minutes	GS	GA	GS90	GA90	GD90	MGS90	MGA90	MGD90
Keon Daniel	756	13	5	1.548	0.595	0.952	0.286	-0.249	0.535
Danny Califf	1620	24	15	1.333	0.833	0.500	0.072	-0.011	0.083
Carlos Ruiz	1144	14	8	1.101	0.629	0.472	-0.160	-0.215	0.055
Carlos Valdes	1620	24	16	1.333	0.889	0.444	0.072	0.044	0.027
Sheanon Williams	1693	24	16	1.276	0.851	0.425	0.014	0.006	0.008
Sebastien Le Toux	1710	24	16	1.263	0.842	0.421	0.002	-0.002	0.004
Brian Carroll	1401	21	15	1.349	0.964	0.385	0.088	0.119	-0.032
Danny Mwanga	968	16	12	1.488	1.116	0.372	0.226	0.271	-0.045
Kyle Nakazawa	988	14	11	1.275	1.002	0.273	0.014	0.157	-0.144
Justin Mapp	1047	16	13	1.375	1.117	0.258	0.114	0.273	-0.159
Jordan Harvey	1241	13	13	0.943	0.943	0.000	-0.319	0.098	-0.417
	17051	239	160	1.262	0.845	0.417	0.000	0.000	0.000

I'm only listing regular or semi-regular players.  The totals at the bottom are for the entire team.

This shows that midfielder Keon Daniel is their most effective player, by far.  His marginal goal differential is almost half a goal better than his closest teammate.  Daniel's stats are somewhat inflated by his low playing time, but when he is on the pitch, Philadelphia is most effective at both scoring and preventing goals.  I suspect that if he gets more playing time the team's performance will improve.

This table also shows why Philadelphia was right to trade Jordan Harvey.  When Harvey was on the pitch, the team was least effective at scoring goals and was not very effective at preventing them.  Harvey's stats include the Union's 6-goal outburst against Toronto where he played the entire match.  Take that away and his stats are even worse.  Harvey was traded to Vancouver for allocation money.

Marginal Goal Analysis - Los Angeles Galaxy

Since my latest projection has Los Angeles winning the MLS Cup, I thought that it was time to do a marginal goal analysis for the Galaxy.  Here are the results for players with significant playing time through their 21 MLS matches:

Player	Primary Position	Minutes	GS	GA	GS90	GA90	GD90	MGS90	MGA90	MGD90
Todd Dunivant	D	1890	27	16	1.286	0.762	0.524	-0.006	-0.008	0.003
Sean Franklin	D	1664	24	15	1.298	0.811	0.487	0.007	0.041	-0.035
Juninho	M	1638	22	13	1.209	0.714	0.495	-0.083	-0.056	-0.027
Omar Gonzalez	D	1609	24	11	1.342	0.615	0.727	0.051	-0.155	0.206
A.J. DeLaGarza	D	1547	22	14	1.280	0.814	0.465	-0.011	0.044	-0.056
David Beckham	M	1338	20	11	1.345	0.740	0.605	0.054	-0.030	0.084
Juan Pablo Angel	F	1312	18	13	1.235	0.892	0.343	-0.057	0.122	-0.178
Mike Magee	M	1205	20	8	1.494	0.598	0.896	0.202	-0.172	0.375
Chris Birchall	M	1203	16	12	1.197	0.898	0.299	-0.094	0.128	-0.222
Chad Barrett	F	1182	16	11	1.218	0.838	0.381	-0.073	0.068	-0.141
Landon Donovan	F	1154	18	7	1.404	0.546	0.858	0.112	-0.224	0.337
Miguel López	M	896	14	4	1.406	0.402	1.004	0.115	-0.368	0.483

Miguel Lòpez has the highest MGD90 and MGA90 scores of any player I've rated so far.  When he's on the field, the Galaxy shuts down their opponents.  He also has been an effective contributor to their offense.  Sticking out like a sore thumb is Chris Birchall's stat line.  When he is on the field, the Galaxy are at their least effective both at scoring goals and preventing goals.  I think that giving more midfield playing time to Lòpez and more bench time to Birchall will make the Galaxy a stronger team.  Birchall may be getting more bench time anyway after this vicious tackle.

Of the three teams I have rated (Real Salt Lake and New York the others), only LA has three players (Lòpez, Mike Magee and Landon Donovan) with MGD90's above 0.300.  I'm especially pleased to see the high rating for Donovan who is generally considered the best player in the MLS.  To me this is validation that marginal goals are an effective way to measure a player's contribution to his team.



Marginal Goal Analysis - New York Red Bulls

Following up on my analysis of Real Salt Lake, I decided to do a similar analysis for New York.  MLS released their Castrol Index today and Thierry Henry continues to hold the top spot.  I want to measure marginal goals for Henry and his teammates to see if I can get a similar result.  Here is the table for the Red Bulls.  This data includes last night's 5-0 stomping of Toronto FC:

Player	Minutes	GS	GA	GS90	GA90	GD90	MGS90	MGA90	MGD90
Roy Miller	1709	34	23	1.791	1.211	0.579	0.006	0.001	0.006
Joel Lindpere	1705	33	23	1.742	1.214	0.528	-0.042	0.004	-0.046
Jan Gunnar Solli	1629	33	22	1.823	1.215	0.608	0.039	0.005	0.034
Teemu Tainio	1545	32	22	1.864	1.282	0.583	0.080	0.071	0.009
Thierry Henry	1247	25	14	1.804	1.010	0.794	0.020	-0.200	0.220
Tim Ream	1170	25	13	1.923	1.000	0.923	0.139	-0.211	0.349
Dwayne De Rosario	1113	23	19	1.860	1.536	0.323	0.076	0.326	-0.250
Dane Richards	1092	23	14	1.896	1.154	0.742	0.111	-0.057	0.168
Mehdi Ballouchy	999	19	16	1.712	1.441	0.270	-0.072	0.231	-0.303
Luke Rodgers	949	19	12	1.802	1.138	0.664	0.018	-0.072	0.090
Carlos Mendes	880	19	15	1.943	1.534	0.409	0.159	0.324	-0.165
Rafael Marquez	810	15	8	1.667	0.889	0.778	-0.118	-0.322	0.204

17100

339

230

1.784

1.211

0.574

0.000

0.000

0.000

I've limited the list to show those players that have played roughly half of the total minutes over RBNY's 19 MLS matches.  New York's MVP according to my analysis is defender Tim Ream.  His MGD90 rating of 0.349 goals is equivalent to 11.9 goals in a 34-match season.  Ream has played in 13 matches and his team has allowed exactly one goal per match with him in the lineup.  In the 6 matches he has missed (due to playing for the US Men's team) RBNY allowed 1.67 goals per match.  Ream is also contributing to New York's league-leading offense with the second-best MGS90 score.

Thierry Henry scores pretty highly with and MGD90 of 0.220.  Although he leads the league in goals scored, his marginal contribution is pretty small on offense with an MGS90 of only 0.020.  New York is the highest scoring team in the league and Henry is reaping the benefits of that.  I suspect that if Henry played for another team he wouldn't be leading the league in goals.  Not saying he is bad or overrated, just pointing out that his value should not be measured just by his goals.  His MGA90 of -0.200 is just behind Ream's so this indicates that his presence on the field helps prevent opponents from scoring.

One thing I would like to point out is that this table shows why RBNY traded Dwayne De Rosario.  Considered a surprising move at the time, but DeRo's MGD90 was at -0.250 and he had the worst MGA90 at 0.326.  Compare his stats to Dane Richards.  They're both primarily midfielders who played about the same minutes.  When De Rosario was on the pitch the team gave up five more goals than when Richards was on the pitch.  So this was a good move by the Red Bulls.