Showing posts with label Stoke City. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stoke City. Show all posts

Thursday, June 9, 2011

Premier League 2010-11 Post-Mortem: The Offenses

I have posted a series of tables below showing SRS rankings for goals scored at home, away and overall.  These served as the foundation for my predictions.  Here is a summary of the results:

Home Offense
Home Offensive SRS
Team
HGF
SOS
SRS
Manchester United2.5791.5880.991
Newcastle United2.1581.5960.561
Chelsea2.0531.6320.421
Liverpool1.9471.6080.339
Bolton Wanderers1.7891.6110.178
Manchester City1.7891.6430.146
Arsenal1.7371.6260.111
Stoke City1.6321.6260.006
Everton1.6321.649-0.018
West Bromwich Albion1.5791.596-0.018
Blackpool1.5791.596-0.018
Wolverhampton Wanderers1.5791.611-0.032
Tottenham Hotspur1.5791.637-0.058
Fulham1.5791.658-0.079
Aston Villa1.3681.611-0.243
Sunderland1.3161.646-0.330
West Ham United1.2631.620-0.357
Blackburn Rovers1.1581.614-0.456
Wigan Athletic1.1581.661-0.503
Birmingham City1.0001.643-0.643

Note:  HGF = home goals for, SOS = strength of schedule, SRS = Simple Ranking System

Manchester United led the league in goals scored at home with 49 or 2.579/match.  Newcastle United, with 41 goals, was the only other team to exceed 40 goals.  Man United's opponents only allowed an average of 1.588 goals/match in road games which was the lowest opponents average in the league.  In other words, at home the Red Devils faced the toughest schedule of defenses in the league.  Yet they still outscored their opponents by 0.991 goals/match which is a tremendous achievement.

Bottom of the list is Birmingham who scored only 19 home goals, exactly 1 per match.  Their opponents allowed an average of 1.643 away goals so the Blues underperformed against their competition.  An additional 0.643 goals/match would have given them 12 more goals over the course of the season which would surely have allowed them to earn enough points to avoid relegation.

Away Offense

Away Offensive SRS
Team
AGF
SOS
SRS
Arsenal2.0531.1460.906
Chelsea1.5791.1780.401
Manchester United1.5261.1840.342
West Bromwich Albion1.3681.1400.228
Blackpool1.3161.1230.193
Manchester City1.3681.1930.175
Tottenham Hotspur1.3161.1750.140
Blackburn Rovers1.2631.1870.076
Aston Villa1.1581.184-0.026
Liverpool1.1581.199-0.041
Sunderland1.0531.167-0.114
Everton1.0531.178-0.126
West Ham United1.0001.158-0.158
Fulham1.0001.181-0.181
Wigan Athletic0.9471.152-0.205
Bolton Wanderers0.9471.181-0.234
Birmingham City0.9471.187-0.240
Wolverhampton Wanderers0.8421.170-0.327
Newcastle United0.7891.181-0.392
Stoke City0.7891.208-0.418

Note:  AGF = Away Goals For

Arsenal led the league in away goals with 39 or 2.053/match.  In fact they are one of only two teams (Blackburn the other) to score more goals away than at home.  They also led the league in away points earned with 31.  Normally that's a sign of a champion, but their home performance wasn't good enough.  The Gunners were the only team with as many home losses (4) as road losses.

At the bottom, Newcastle and Stoke tied for fewest goals scored away, each with 15.  Newcastle had the biggest differential between home and away goals scored with 26 or 1.368/match.  That's a huge drop off.  It makes one wonder if there is something about St James' Park that encourages scoring.  This stadium saw the highest goals/match with 3.58 versus a league average of 2.80.  Getting back to away performance Newcastle and Stoke both underperformed their opponents by about 0.4 goals/match which would be worth about 8 goals over the season.  Not enough to send them to Europe but certainly would have moved either team up a spot or two in the tightly packed mid-table.

Overall Offense
Total Offensive SRS
Team
GF
SOS
SRS
Manchester United2.0531.3860.667
Arsenal1.8951.3860.509
Chelsea1.8161.4050.411
Manchester City1.5791.4180.161
Liverpool1.5531.4040.149
West Bromwich Albion1.4741.3680.105
Blackpool1.4471.3600.088
Newcastle United1.4741.3890.085
Tottenham Hotspur1.4471.4060.041
Bolton Wanderers1.3681.396-0.028
Everton1.3421.414-0.072
Fulham1.2891.420-0.130
Aston Villa1.2631.398-0.135
Wolverhampton Wanderers1.2111.390-0.180
Blackburn Rovers1.2111.401-0.190
Stoke City1.2111.417-0.206
Sunderland1.1841.406-0.222
West Ham United1.1321.389-0.257
Wigan Athletic1.0531.406-0.354
Birmingham City0.9741.415-0.442

No surprise that Manchester United had the best overall offense nor that Birmingham had the worst overall.  Their performance reflected their final placement in the league.  Blackpool played the toughest defenses which was a contributing factor to their relegation.  Fulham had the easiest overall schedule but still underperformed their competition.

Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Premier League Wrapup and SRS Rankings

It certainly was an eventful weekend in the city of Manchester.  Manchester United clinched their 19th league championship breaking a tie with Liverpool for most all-time titles.  Manchester City defeated Stoke City on Saturday to win the FA Cup.  This was their 5th cup overall and first since 1969.  These two teams happened to have a rematch on Tuesday which was their rescheduled Premier League match.  Man City thrashed Stoke City 3-0 and moved one point ahead of Arsenal into 3rd place in the league.  The top 3 finishers in the Premier are automatically placed in the group stage of next season's Champions League.  4th place has to play through the qualifying rounds to earn a place in the group stage. 

Man City visits Bolton on Saturday while Arsenal travels to Fulham.  Here are the possible scenarios:

Man City win:  they clinch 3rd place and Arsenal ends up 4th.
Man City draw:  City clinches 3rd with an Arsenal loss or draw.  An Arsenal win gives them 3rd place.
Man City loss:  City clinches 3rd if Arsenal also loses.  Arsenal will clinch 3rd with a win or a draw (due to goal differential tiebreaker).

The 5th spot, which qualifies for the Europa League, is also in play between Tottenham and Liverpool with the Spurs holding a one-point edge.  Tottenham's victory at Liverpool last weekend puts them in the drivers seat.  They host Birmingham on Saturday while Liverpool visits Aston Villa.  These are the scenarios:

Tottenham win:  they clinch 5th place.
Tottenham draw:  Spurs clinch 5th with a Liverpool loss or draw.  Liverpool would need a win to pass them.
Tottenham loss:  Spurs clinch 5th if Liverpool also loses.  Liverpool will clinch 5th with a win or a draw (due to goal differential tiebreaker).

At the bottom of the table West Ham clinched relegation over the weekend and promptly fired their manager.  There are still five teams (Wolves, Blackburn, Birmingham, Blackpool and Wigan) that are in danger of filling the last two relegation spots.  There are myriad scenarios so I won't list them all.  I can say that if there is a winner in the Wolves vs Blackburn match, that team will be safe.  Otherwise, each team's fate is dependent on the outcome of other matches.

The latest SRS rankings are after the jump: