MLS SRS Ratings and Season Projection

Here are the updated ratings through Week 18:



Team	MOV	SOS	SRS	Change
Real Salt Lake	0.647	-0.037	0.610	-0.011
Los Angeles	0.524	-0.035	0.489	-0.001
New York	0.476	-0.015	0.461	-0.021
Philadelphia	0.421	-0.001	0.420	0.118
Seattle	0.409	-0.021	0.388	0.031
FC Dallas	0.350	-0.026	0.324	-0.028
San Jose	0.053	0.086	0.139	0.016
Columbus	0.105	0.003	0.108	-0.016
Chivas USA	0.050	0.009	0.059	0.025
Houston	0.050	-0.011	0.039	-0.013
Colorado	-0.095	-0.008	-0.103	-0.021
Kansas City	-0.053	-0.064	-0.116	0.003
D.C. United	-0.278	0.098	-0.180	0.034
Chicago	-0.250	0.019	-0.231	-0.082
Portland	-0.500	0.038	-0.462	0.077
Vancouver	-0.450	-0.055	-0.505	-0.004
New England	-0.579	0.032	-0.547	-0.120
Toronto FC	-0.905	0.010	-0.895	0.004

The results of the New England/Philadelphia match moved both teams two spots in the rankings - Philadelphia up two to 4th and the Revs down two to 17th.  The Union's victory puts them on top in the Eastern Conference, two points clear of New York.

Here are the projected standings for the season:


East
Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Philadelphia	34	17	13	4	44	26	18	64
2	New York	34	12	17	5	54	37	17	53
3	Columbus	34	12	11	11	35	32	3	47
4	Kansas City	34	9	18	7	39	36	3	45
5	D.C. United	34	7	18	9	47	53	-6	39
6	Houston	34	6	19	9	36	37	-1	37
7	Chicago	34	3	22	9	35	43	-8	31
8	New England	34	3	13	18	28	48	-20	22
9	Toronto FC	34	3	12	19	27	59	-32	21
West
Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Los Angeles	34	16	16	2	44	26	18	64
2	Real Salt Lake	34	16	15	3	44	24	20	63
3	Seattle	34	14	16	4	47	35	12	58
4	FC Dallas	34	14	12	8	41	33	8	54
5	Chivas USA	34	8	18	8	41	39	2	42
6	San Jose	34	8	17	9	42	39	3	41
7	Colorado	34	8	17	9	39	42	-3	41
8	Portland	34	9	7	18	40	60	-20	34
9	Vancouver	34	3	15	16	32	48	-16	24

I'm projecting both Los Angeles and Philadelphia to finish at 64 points, but LA already owns the tiebreaker with a win and a draw against the Union in their two matches earlier this season.  Still projecting those two to meet for the MLS Cup which I think the Galaxy will win.

MLS Week 16 SRS Rankings and Season Projection

Another drawn out weekend in the MLS (get it?) with 6 of 9 matches ending all tied up and two of those were 0-0.  The most entertaining match was Real Salt Lake's 3-3 draw at home against New England.  This was a matchup of the best defense (RSL) against the worst offense (NE) and it was played at Rio Tinto where RSL is nearly unbeatable.  Problem was that RSL dug themselves into a hole when Nat Borchers drew a red card in the 3rd minute.  The Revolution converted on the subsequent penalty kick and added another to go up 2-0 on 10-man RSL.

RSL fought back to tie it in the 2nd half but New England took the lead back in the 63rd minute and seemed poised to pull off a huge upset.  But a 2nd yellow on Ryan Cochrane evened up both sides at 10 men.  This opened up some space for RSL's offense which tied up the game on this goal.  Overall this match featured 6 goals, 2 penalty kicks, 6 yellow cards and 2 red cards.  Referee Yader Reyes generated a lot of controversy for his handling of the match.

Here are the SRS ratings through Week 16:



Team	MOV	SOS	SRS
Real Salt Lake	0.563	-0.053	0.509
Los Angeles	0.500	-0.021	0.479
FC Dallas	0.500	-0.047	0.453
Seattle	0.350	0.019	0.369
New York	0.333	0.018	0.352
Philadelphia	0.294	0.022	0.316
San Jose	0.188	0.051	0.239
Columbus	0.059	0.026	0.085
Houston	-0.056	0.032	-0.024
Chivas USA	-0.059	-0.026	-0.084
Kansas City	-0.063	-0.052	-0.115
Chicago	-0.167	0.038	-0.129
Colorado	-0.111	-0.028	-0.139
D.C. United	-0.375	0.041	-0.334
Vancouver	-0.389	-0.037	-0.426
New England	-0.444	0.011	-0.433
Portland	-0.563	0.022	-0.541
Toronto FC	-0.632	-0.013	-0.645

RSL continues to top the rankings.  They have played the easiest schedule in the league thus far.  The Western Conference now has the top 4 spots and 5 of the top 7.  Toronto remains at the bottom despite their victory over Vancouver.  The Whitecaps were not strong enough to really improve Toronto's rating.

After the jump I will have my updated season projection: