League Championship Weekend Results and Updated Projection

My predictions fared pretty well this weekend.  Here is a recap:

Ipswich Town 1 Norwich City 5 (+10 pts)
Coventry City 1 Scunthorpe United 1 (-10 pts)
Leeds United 0 Reading 0 (+20 pts)
Doncaster Rovers 0 Crystal Palace 0 (-10 pts)
Nottingham Forest 3 Leicester City 2 (+15 pts)
Portsmouth 0 Swansea City 0 (+20 pts)
Millwall 4 Preston North End 0 (+10 pts)
Hull City 2 Middlesbrough 4 (-10 pts)
Derby County 2 Burnley 4 (-10 pts)
Watford 1 Barnsley 0 (+15 pts)
Cardiff City 2 Queens Park Rangers 2 (+20 pts)
Sheffield United 3 Bristol City 2 (-10 pts)

Predicted the correct outcome in 7 of the 12 matches.  Total score for the week is +60 points.  After the jump, my updated projection for the table:

League Championship Projection 4/13

Based on the latest round of matches completed 4/12, here are my latest projections for the Championship:

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA		GD	Pts
1	Queens Park Rangers	46	26	15	5	73	31		42	93
2	Norwich City	46	23	15	8	79	57		22	84
3	Cardiff City	46	24	11	11	78	53		25	83
4	Reading	46	22	16	8	80	51		29	82
5	Swansea City	46	23	9	14	65	44		21	78
6	Millwall	46	19	15	12	62	46		16	72
7	Nottingham Forest	46	18	17	11	61	48		13	71
8	Leeds United	46	18	16	12	84	76		8	70
9	Hull City	46	17	17	12	50	45		5	68
10	Watford	46	17	15	14	80	68		12	66
11	Leicester City	46	17	12	17	70	69		1	63
12	Burnley	46	15	17	14	64	63		1	62
13	Portsmouth	46	16	13	17	58	61		-3	61
14	Bristol City	46	16	13	17	59	65		-6	61
15	Ipswich Town	46	16	11	19	61	61		0	59
16	Middlesbrough	46	15	13	18	63	69		-6	58
17	Barnsley	46	14	13	19	56	68		-12	55
18	Coventry City	46	14	12	20	54	59		-5	54
19	Derby County	46	13	11	22	58	69		-11	50
20	Doncaster Rovers	46	12	13	21	57	79		-22	49
21	Crystal Palace	46	12	12	22	46	69		-23	48
22	Preston North End	46	8	14	24	53	79		-26	38
23	Sheffield United	46	9	10	27	39	74		-35	37
24	Scunthorpe United	46	11	4	31	40	86		-46	37

The biggest winner was Hull City who moved up two spots to ninth.  I projected they would draw at Watford and lose at Swansea.  Instead they beat the Hornets and drew against the Swans, picking up three points in their projection.

The biggest loser was Portsmouth who dropped three spots to 13th.  Their latest projection of 61 points is 5 points worse than previous.  They have been struggling against the bottom-half of the table managing a draw against Preston and losing to Coventry.

No change in the playoff zone with the same matchups as before.  Again I am predicting that Reading will beat Cardiff in the playoff final.

League Championship SRS Rankings - 4/6

Here are the latest SRS rankings for the Championship through yesterday's games:

Team	MOV	SOS	SRS
Queens Park Rangers	1.026	0.010	1.036
Reading	0.538	0.044	0.582
Norwich City	0.538	-0.019	0.519
Cardiff City	0.436	0.020	0.456
Swansea City	0.410	-0.008	0.402
Millwall	0.308	0.036	0.343
Watford	0.308	-0.031	0.276
Nottingham Forest	0.256	0.011	0.268
Leeds United	0.308	-0.049	0.259
Burnley	0.158	-0.031	0.127
Hull City	0.077	-0.014	0.063
Ipswich Town	0.000	0.012	0.012
Portsmouth	0.000	0.008	0.008
Leicester City	0.000	-0.004	-0.004
Bristol City	-0.077	0.018	-0.059
Middlesbrough	-0.211	0.032	-0.179
Coventry City	-0.179	0.000	-0.179
Derby County	-0.205	-0.061	-0.266
Barnsley	-0.308	-0.004	-0.311
Doncaster Rovers	-0.487	0.036	-0.451
Crystal Palace	-0.538	0.029	-0.509
Preston North End	-0.590	0.005	-0.585
Sheffield United	-0.718	-0.004	-0.722
Scunthorpe United	-1.051	-0.036	-1.088

Norwich's 6-0 thrashing of Scunthorpe allowed them to move up two spots to third overall.  Millwall also moved up two spots with a quality win over Hull City.

Here are the projected rankings for the remaining games:

Team	MOV	SOS	SRS
Queens Park Rangers	1.043	-0.139	0.904
Cardiff City	0.597	-0.008	0.590
Norwich City	0.480	0.097	0.577
Reading	0.886	-0.346	0.541
Swansea City	0.320	0.184	0.504
Nottingham Forest	0.365	-0.032	0.333
Watford	0.181	0.123	0.304
Hull City	0.096	0.161	0.256
Millwall	0.582	-0.346	0.236
Leicester City	0.029	0.186	0.215
Burnley	-0.028	0.122	0.094
Leeds United	-0.201	0.273	0.072
Portsmouth	0.142	-0.102	0.041
Ipswich Town	0.008	-0.064	-0.056
Barnsley	-0.209	0.140	-0.068
Middlesbrough	-0.022	-0.067	-0.089
Derby County	-0.544	0.301	-0.243
Coventry City	-0.273	0.026	-0.247
Doncaster Rovers	-0.163	-0.079	-0.242
Bristol City	-0.176	-0.087	-0.263
Preston North End	-0.561	0.062	-0.499
Sheffield United	-0.680	0.109	-0.571
Crystal Palace	-0.521	-0.164	-0.685
Scunthorpe United	-1.344	0.229	-1.115

Millwall has the easiest remaining schedule and this should fuel their rise into the playoffs.