It's always been my goal to add analysis of the MLS to my blog. This is a landmark season for this league. They have expanded to 18 teams by adding newcomers Portland and Vancouver. The Kansas City Wiz have renamed themselves Sporting KC and are opening a new stadium in June. Real Salt Lake are playing in the CONCACAF Champions League final this month, trying to become the first MLS team to win this tournament.
The season kicked off on March 15 and with every team having played at least four matches, I now have enough data to make match-day predictions and calculate meaningful SRS rankings. However, I'm not able to make season projections yet. Sporting KC's new stadium will not open until June 9th so they are playing nothing but road matches until that time. I won't be able to project their home performance until they play a few home matches so won't be able to project their full season performance. The way their schedule is laid out they play 11 of their first 12 MLS matches on the road. The MLS makes it up to them by scheduling them to play 11 of 12 home matches during a stretch from July through September. By mid-June I will have enough home data for Sporting to project the entire season for the MLS.
In the meantime I will still make predictions for upcoming matches. Here are my picks for this week's games with the home team listed first:
DC United 2 New York 1
Colorado 4 Seattle 1
San Jose 0 Chivas USA 0
Toronto FC 1 Columbus 0
Vancouver 3 FC Dallas 2
New England 2 Sporting KC 2
Chicago 1 Houston 2
Real Salt Lake 2 Philadelphia 0
Los Angeles 2 Portland 0
I will post my first SRS rankings for the MLS after the jump.
Showing posts with label SOS. Show all posts
Showing posts with label SOS. Show all posts
Monday, April 18, 2011
Wednesday, April 6, 2011
League Championship SRS Rankings - 4/6
Here are the latest SRS rankings for the Championship through yesterday's games:
Norwich's 6-0 thrashing of Scunthorpe allowed them to move up two spots to third overall. Millwall also moved up two spots with a quality win over Hull City.
Here are the projected rankings for the remaining games:
Millwall has the easiest remaining schedule and this should fuel their rise into the playoffs.
| Team | MOV | SOS | SRS |
| Queens Park Rangers | 1.026 | 0.010 | 1.036 |
| Reading | 0.538 | 0.044 | 0.582 |
| Norwich City | 0.538 | -0.019 | 0.519 |
| Cardiff City | 0.436 | 0.020 | 0.456 |
| Swansea City | 0.410 | -0.008 | 0.402 |
| Millwall | 0.308 | 0.036 | 0.343 |
| Watford | 0.308 | -0.031 | 0.276 |
| Nottingham Forest | 0.256 | 0.011 | 0.268 |
| Leeds United | 0.308 | -0.049 | 0.259 |
| Burnley | 0.158 | -0.031 | 0.127 |
| Hull City | 0.077 | -0.014 | 0.063 |
| Ipswich Town | 0.000 | 0.012 | 0.012 |
| Portsmouth | 0.000 | 0.008 | 0.008 |
| Leicester City | 0.000 | -0.004 | -0.004 |
| Bristol City | -0.077 | 0.018 | -0.059 |
| Middlesbrough | -0.211 | 0.032 | -0.179 |
| Coventry City | -0.179 | 0.000 | -0.179 |
| Derby County | -0.205 | -0.061 | -0.266 |
| Barnsley | -0.308 | -0.004 | -0.311 |
| Doncaster Rovers | -0.487 | 0.036 | -0.451 |
| Crystal Palace | -0.538 | 0.029 | -0.509 |
| Preston North End | -0.590 | 0.005 | -0.585 |
| Sheffield United | -0.718 | -0.004 | -0.722 |
| Scunthorpe United | -1.051 | -0.036 | -1.088 |
Norwich's 6-0 thrashing of Scunthorpe allowed them to move up two spots to third overall. Millwall also moved up two spots with a quality win over Hull City.
Here are the projected rankings for the remaining games:
| Team | MOV | SOS | SRS |
| Queens Park Rangers | 1.043 | -0.139 | 0.904 |
| Cardiff City | 0.597 | -0.008 | 0.590 |
| Norwich City | 0.480 | 0.097 | 0.577 |
| Reading | 0.886 | -0.346 | 0.541 |
| Swansea City | 0.320 | 0.184 | 0.504 |
| Nottingham Forest | 0.365 | -0.032 | 0.333 |
| Watford | 0.181 | 0.123 | 0.304 |
| Hull City | 0.096 | 0.161 | 0.256 |
| Millwall | 0.582 | -0.346 | 0.236 |
| Leicester City | 0.029 | 0.186 | 0.215 |
| Burnley | -0.028 | 0.122 | 0.094 |
| Leeds United | -0.201 | 0.273 | 0.072 |
| Portsmouth | 0.142 | -0.102 | 0.041 |
| Ipswich Town | 0.008 | -0.064 | -0.056 |
| Barnsley | -0.209 | 0.140 | -0.068 |
| Middlesbrough | -0.022 | -0.067 | -0.089 |
| Derby County | -0.544 | 0.301 | -0.243 |
| Coventry City | -0.273 | 0.026 | -0.247 |
| Doncaster Rovers | -0.163 | -0.079 | -0.242 |
| Bristol City | -0.176 | -0.087 | -0.263 |
| Preston North End | -0.561 | 0.062 | -0.499 |
| Sheffield United | -0.680 | 0.109 | -0.571 |
| Crystal Palace | -0.521 | -0.164 | -0.685 |
| Scunthorpe United | -1.344 | 0.229 | -1.115 |
Millwall has the easiest remaining schedule and this should fuel their rise into the playoffs.
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
English League Championship SRS Rankings
Today I will be presenting my SRS rankings for the Championship. These serve as the foundation for my projections. Please see my previous post for more detail on the SRS method. For matches played through 3/19:
The color coding represents which club is the best (green) and worst (red) in each category. QPR is the best team overall and are sitting comfortably atop the table. Reading is the second-best team in the rankings but is currently seventh in the league. Part of the reason is that their strength of schedule is the hardest in the league thus far. In other words they are a better team than what their table position suggests.
Let's take a look at the SRS rankings for remaining games:
Since these rankings are based on a sample size of 8 - 9 matches per club there is more variability in the results. One thing that really stands out is Reading has the easiest remaining schedule in the league. 6 of their 9 remaining matches are against teams in the bottom half of the table including all 3 teams currently in the relegation zone. I project that this easy schedule will allow Reading to climb into the playoffs and that they will win out and earn promotion to the Premiership.
| Team | MOV | SOS | SRS |
| Queens Park Rangers | 0.974 | 0.022 | 0.996 |
| Reading | 0.486 | 0.055 | 0.542 |
| Swansea City | 0.447 | 0.007 | 0.454 |
| Norwich City | 0.395 | -0.001 | 0.394 |
| Cardiff City | 0.368 | 0.021 | 0.390 |
| Watford | 0.368 | -0.019 | 0.350 |
| Nottingham Forest | 0.342 | 0.008 | 0.350 |
| Millwall | 0.289 | 0.030 | 0.320 |
| Leeds United | 0.237 | -0.060 | 0.177 |
| Burnley | 0.189 | -0.034 | 0.155 |
| Hull City | 0.105 | -0.019 | 0.086 |
| Portsmouth | 0.053 | -0.003 | 0.050 |
| Leicester City | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Ipswich Town | -0.026 | 0.012 | -0.014 |
| Bristol City | -0.105 | 0.026 | -0.079 |
| Middlesbrough | -0.216 | 0.032 | -0.184 |
| Derby County | -0.132 | -0.061 | -0.193 |
| Coventry City | -0.237 | -0.012 | -0.249 |
| Barnsley | -0.289 | 0.011 | -0.278 |
| Doncaster Rovers | -0.474 | 0.042 | -0.431 |
| Crystal Palace | -0.579 | 0.034 | -0.545 |
| Preston North End | -0.622 | -0.002 | -0.624 |
| Sheffield United | -0.658 | -0.026 | -0.683 |
| Scunthorpe United | -0.921 | -0.046 | -0.967 |
The color coding represents which club is the best (green) and worst (red) in each category. QPR is the best team overall and are sitting comfortably atop the table. Reading is the second-best team in the rankings but is currently seventh in the league. Part of the reason is that their strength of schedule is the hardest in the league thus far. In other words they are a better team than what their table position suggests.
Let's take a look at the SRS rankings for remaining games:
| Team | MOV | SOS | SRS |
| Queens Park Rangers | 1.141 | -0.171 | 0.970 |
| Reading | 0.880 | -0.343 | 0.537 |
| Cardiff City | 0.599 | -0.094 | 0.505 |
| Swansea City | 0.403 | 0.006 | 0.409 |
| Hull City | 0.115 | 0.281 | 0.396 |
| Watford | 0.331 | 0.019 | 0.350 |
| Norwich City | 0.407 | -0.086 | 0.321 |
| Nottingham Forest | 0.359 | -0.041 | 0.319 |
| Millwall | 0.499 | -0.293 | 0.206 |
| Leicester City | -0.043 | 0.191 | 0.148 |
| Leeds United | -0.205 | 0.331 | 0.126 |
| Burnley | 0.014 | 0.107 | 0.121 |
| Portsmouth | 0.045 | 0.031 | 0.076 |
| Ipswich Town | -0.015 | -0.049 | -0.064 |
| Middlesbrough | 0.027 | -0.094 | -0.067 |
| Derby County | -0.504 | 0.342 | -0.162 |
| Barnsley | -0.301 | 0.080 | -0.221 |
| Bristol City | -0.139 | -0.131 | -0.270 |
| Doncaster Rovers | -0.188 | -0.101 | -0.290 |
| Coventry City | -0.374 | 0.046 | -0.327 |
| Sheffield United | -0.798 | 0.253 | -0.545 |
| Crystal Palace | -0.405 | -0.170 | -0.575 |
| Preston North End | -0.692 | 0.017 | -0.674 |
| Scunthorpe United | -1.186 | 0.262 | -0.924 |
Since these rankings are based on a sample size of 8 - 9 matches per club there is more variability in the results. One thing that really stands out is Reading has the easiest remaining schedule in the league. 6 of their 9 remaining matches are against teams in the bottom half of the table including all 3 teams currently in the relegation zone. I project that this easy schedule will allow Reading to climb into the playoffs and that they will win out and earn promotion to the Premiership.
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