MLS Week 19 Weekend Predictions

Here are the results of my mid-week predictions:



Predicted Score				Actual Score				Points
D.C. United	2	New England	2	D.C. United	0	New England	1	-10
Toronto FC	1	FC Dallas	2	Toronto FC	0	FC Dallas	1	15
Colorado	1	New York	1	Colorado	4	New York	1	-10
San Jose	2	Vancouver	1	San Jose	2	Vancouver	2	-10
Los Angeles	1	Columbus	0	Los Angeles	1	Columbus	0	30
						Total		15

Overall I had 2 of 5 outcomes and 1 of 5 scores predicted correctly.  Here are my predictions for the six weekend matches:



Predicted Score
New York	2	FC Dallas	1
Columbus	2	Portland	0
Kansas City	1	Toronto FC	0
Colorado	2	New England	1
Real Salt Lake	2	San Jose	1
Chivas USA	1	Houston	1

For RSL this will be their first match in two weeks due to the postponement of last week's match in Vancouver.  Although they have played the fewest matches in league play, they have also played six CONCACAF Champions League and two US Open Cup matches this season.  So the extra week off should do them good and prepare them for a busy second-half of the season.

MLS Weekend Wrapup and SRS Rankings

I took a break last week to honeymoon with my beautiful wife so I have no predictions to recap for the weekend.  Here are some highlights from last weekend's MLS matches:

• Philadelphia scored 6(!) goals at Toronto.  The Union have been one of the top defensive teams in the league this season.  As you can see from the table below, they have the second best Defensive SRS in the league against the toughest offenses in the league.  However, their offense was one of the worst.  Prior to this match the Union had scored 8 goals in 10 matches overall and only 1 goal in 4 road matches.  We will have to see if this is a fluke or a sign that their offense has woken up.  If it has then matching that up with their stout defense would make this team a serious MLS Cup contender

Total Defensive SRS
Team	GA	SOS	SRS
Real Salt Lake	0.444	1.283	0.838
Philadelphia	0.818	1.313	0.495
Los Angeles	0.800	1.270	0.470
Seattle	0.929	1.296	0.367
New York	0.917	1.276	0.359

• Seattle snapped RSL's 29-game home unbeaten streak with a 2-1 victory at Rio Tinto.  RSL has really struggled since their loss in the CONCACAF Champions League final and the loss of Javier Morales hasn't helped.  I still think they are the best team in the league right now mainly due to their excellent defense.  But their loss to Seattle was the first time they had given up multiple goals in the league this season.  Their defense may be cracking under the strain of an anemic offense.  We will have to see if coach Jason Kreis can pull them out of this funk.
• The season is about one-third complete and we have seen our first coaching casualties.  Vancouver and Chicago both fired their coaches this week.  Each team has only one win this season with slim and fading hopes of making the playoffs.

Latest SRS rankings after the jump:

CONCACAF Champions League Final Report

Real Salt Lake lost 1-0 to Monterrey, so Monterrey becomes the 6th consecutive Mexican team to win the title.  Great article from Grant Wahl comparing RSL's loss to other disappointments in American soccer.  It will be interesting to see how RSL bounces back.  I'm predicting a draw against Portland this weekend.

MLS Weekend Results and Updated SRS Rankings

Given that this was the first weekend of my MLS predictions and given that they were based on only a handful of games for each team, I didn't expect to do real well with them.  It turns out I did worse.  Here is the recap:

D.C United 0 New York 4 (-10 pts)
Colorado 0 Seattle 1 (-10 pts)
San Jose 1 Chivas USA 2 (-10 pts)
Toronto FC 1 Columbus 1 (-10 pts)
Vancouver 1 FC Dallas 2 (-10 pts)
New England 3 Kansas City 2 (-10 pts)
Chicago 1 Houston 1 (-10 pts)
Los Angeles 3 Portland 0 (+10 pts)

Of the eight matches played I only predicted the correct outcome in the LA/Portland match.  I also missed the fact that the Real Salt Lake/Philadelphia match was rescheduled to September 3 due to RSL's upcoming appearance in the CONCACAF Champions League final.  Based on the Barclays "I Know the Score" scoring system I ended up at -60 points for the week.  I expect that these predictions will become more accurate each week as we get more data.

After the jump I will have updated SRS rankings for the league.

CONCACAF Champions League Final Report

Last night I watched the first leg of the finals match between Real Salt Lake and Monterrey on Fox Soccer Channel and Univision (I don't understand or speak Spanish, but my HD cable package includes Univision while FSC is still in standard def).  It ended in a 2-2 draw and was an entertaining and hard-fought match with both sides trading goals.  Real tied up the match in the 89th minute on a nice strike from Javier Morales.  Things got a little feisty in the second-half after a scramble in Monterrey's goal.  Jesus Zavala of Monterrey actually had his hands around the neck of Real's Alvaro Saborio and only received a yellow card!  This should have been a red card.

The next leg is Wednesday April 27th at Real Salt Lake.  The champion will be determined by most total goals scored over the two legs of the match.  First tiebreaker is away goals and Real has two of those.  So here are the possible title scenarios for next week's match:

Real wins:  Real is champion

Monterrey wins:  Monterrey is champion

Match ends in 0-0 or 1-1 draw:  Real wins due to more away goals

Match ends in 3-3 or higher scoring draw:  Monterrey wins due to more away goals

Match ends in 2-2 draw:  match goes to extra time and then penalty shootout if still tied.

The league champion will qualify for the FIFA Club World Cup in December which features the winners of each continental confederation's club tournament.  If Real Salt Lake wins they will become the very first MLS team to qualify for this prestigious tournament.

Introducing MLS Predictions and SRS Rankings

It's always been my goal to add analysis of the MLS to my blog.  This is a landmark season for this league.  They have expanded to 18 teams by adding newcomers Portland and Vancouver.  The Kansas City Wiz have renamed themselves Sporting KC and are opening a new stadium in June.  Real Salt Lake are playing in the CONCACAF Champions League final this month, trying to become the first MLS team to win this tournament. 

The season kicked off on March 15 and with every team having played at least four matches, I now have enough data to make match-day predictions and calculate meaningful SRS rankings.  However, I'm not able to make season projections yet.  Sporting KC's new stadium will not open until June 9th so they are playing nothing but road matches until that time.  I won't be able to project their home performance until they play a few home matches so won't be able to project their full season performance.  The way their schedule is laid out they play 11 of their first 12 MLS matches on the road.  The MLS makes it up to them by scheduling them to play 11 of 12 home matches during a stretch from July through September.  By mid-June I will have enough home data for Sporting to project the entire season for the MLS.

In the meantime I will still make predictions for upcoming matches.  Here are my picks for this week's games with the home team listed first:

DC United 2  New York 1
Colorado 4  Seattle 1
San Jose 0  Chivas USA 0
Toronto FC 1  Columbus 0
Vancouver 3  FC Dallas 2
New England 2  Sporting KC 2
Chicago 1  Houston 2
Real Salt Lake 2  Philadelphia 0
Los Angeles 2  Portland 0

I will post my first SRS rankings for the MLS after the jump.