Impact of Relegation from Premier League to Championship

Last week I posted about the promotion of teams from the Championship to the Premier League and how playing at a higher level will impact the stats of those teams.  Now I will take a look at the teams relegated from the Premier League and how their stats are affected when playing at a lower level.

	Points	GF	GA	% Promoted
Premiership Results/Match	0.85	0.97	1.71
Championship Results/Match	1.56	1.46	1.17	27%
Change	0.70	0.49	-0.54

The newly relegated teams score 0.49 more and allow 0.54 fewer goals per match which is an improvement in net goal differential of 1.03 per match.  Teams that are promoted into the Premier League see their goal differential decrease by 1.15 per match so it appears that moving between these two leagues will have about a ±1.1 goal/match impact on goal differential.


Applying the rate changes from the above table to the results of the 2011 relegated teams will give us the following projections for their Championship performance in 2012:

Club	League	Season	Matches	Points	GF	GA
Birmingham	Premier	2010-11	38	39	37	58
	Championship	2011-12	46	80	67	45
Blackpool		2010-11	38	39	55	78
	Championship	2011-12	46	80	89	70
West Ham United	Premier	2010-11	38	33	43	70
	Championship	2011-12	46	72	75	60

The 80 points that I'm projecting for Birmingham and Blackpool will probably not be enough to earn a Top 2 finish and automatic promotion.  Over the past 19 seasons, the teams that finished in the top 2 in the Championship have averaged 90 points.  The teams that have finished second averaged 86 points.  Only 4 teams out of 38 have earned auto-promotion with 80 or fewer points.  I would expect that all three teams will vie for a playoff spot next season.  The average points earned by teams that were promoted through the playoffs is 76.


I noted above that 27% of teams relegated to the Championship are able to turn around and earn promotion the following season.  The rate at which teams promoted to the Premier get relegated the following season is 47%.  So why would relegated teams that are dropping into a lower-level league be less likely to earn promotion?  I think that there are two factors driving this:

1. There are only two automatic promotion spots in the Championship.  The third spot is contested by the four teams ranked 3rd through 6th.  So that's three additional matches that would have to be played (the last of which has to be a victory) to earn promotion.  These teams are pretty comparable so anything can happen and usually does.
2. The loss in income that results from relegation often forces teams to sell key players to help stay profitable at the lower level.  So as talent level diminishes, the chances of earning promotion also diminish.

My early picks for the two promotion spots in 2012 are Reading and Cardiff City.  I expect that the three relegated teams will be in the playoff mix along with Nottingham Forest.

English League Championship Playoff Preview

After playing conservative first legs, all sides went full bore in the second.  Swansea and Reading each scored 3 goals and are moving on to the Championship Playoff Final.  This will be Swansea's first appearance in the final.  Reading last appeared in the playoff final in 1995, losing to Bolton.  Reading also won the league title in 2006 earning an automatic promotion. 

So who to predict as the winner?  Hmmm... this is an extremely even matchup.  Including the playoff legs, both Swansea and Reading have a goal differential of 29 goals or 0.604/game.  The model I use to estimate number of goals scored projects 1.191 for Reading and 1.189 for Swansea.  So we could very easily see extra-time and possibly penalty kicks deciding this match.  The final will be played at Wembley Stadium in London so it's technically a neutral site.  However, Reading is only 40 miles west of London while Swansea is 190 miles west.  So Reading should have the big edge in supporters, practically making it a home game for them.  On the other hand, Swansea won both matches against Reading this season by identical 1-0 scores.

So not much to differentiate the two.  However, if we consider this a home game for Reading, making it a road game for Swansea, then we have to pick the Royals over the Swans.  Excluding playoffs Swansea had the best home record, leading the league in victories (15) , goal differential (30) and fewest goals allowed (11).  On the road, they struggled with a -3 goal differential.  So their success is driven by their home performance and they are merely average away from Swansea.  Reading on the other hand had a more balanced performance.  They are one of only four teams to have positive goal differential both home and away (QPR, Norwich and Cardiff were the others).  So they perform well no matter where they play.  So we can consider this match a home game for Reading or a neutral site game, but it is definitely not a home game for Swansea.  Therefore I'm giving the edge to Reading and picking them to return to the Premier League.

Championship Playoff Wrapup

Two stalemates to kickoff the Championship playoffs last week as both matches ended in 0-0 draws.  Swansea actually overcame a red card in the first minute of the match to hold off Nottingham.  Despite being a man down for almost the entire match, the Swans still had several opportunities to score.  In the other match Cardiff held Reading to a draw despite losing their captain Craig Bellamy to injury in the first-half.

Both Welsh teams will be at home for the second legs and have to be considered favorites for meeting in an all-Welsh final.  As you can see from the tables below, Swansea is actually the best home team in the league with a home SRS of 1.303 which is actually better than champions QPR.  Forest's Road SRS is -0.088 so I am confident that Swansea will win at home this week and move on to the final.  I'm not quite as confident about Cardiff's chances as Reading has the second best road SRS in the league.  The SRS ratings still give a slight edge to Cardiff so I'm projecting they will meet the Swans in the final at Wembley.

Home SRS			Away SRS
Team	SRS		Team	SRS
Swansea City	1.303		Queens Park Rangers	0.476
Queens Park Rangers	1.215		Reading	0.347
Nottingham Forest	0.900		Norwich City	0.346
Leicester City	0.911		Cardiff City	0.274
Reading	0.770		Hull City	-0.046
Norwich City	0.737		Watford	-0.046
Millwall	0.737		Ipswich Town	-0.089
Cardiff City	0.695		Leeds United	-0.089
Leeds United	0.563		Nottingham Forest	-0.088
Burnley	0.433		Swansea City	-0.109

If we do have a Swansea vs Cardiff final, I project that Swansea will emerge victorious and earn their first-ever promotion to the Premier League.

English League Championship Final SRS Rankings and Playoff Predictions

Here are the final rankings for the Championship:

Team	MOV	SOS	SRS
Queens Park Rangers	0.848	0.000	0.848
Swansea City	0.587	0.000	0.587
Reading	0.565	0.000	0.565
Norwich City	0.543	0.000	0.543
Cardiff City	0.478	0.000	0.478
Nottingham Forest	0.413	0.000	0.413
Millwall	0.304	0.000	0.304
Leeds United	0.239	0.000	0.239
Watford	0.130	0.000	0.130
Leicester City	0.109	0.000	0.109
Burnley	0.087	0.000	0.087
Hull City	0.022	0.000	0.022
Middlesbrough	0.000	0.000	0.000
Bristol City	-0.065	0.000	-0.065
Coventry City	-0.087	0.000	-0.087
Ipswich Town	-0.130	0.000	-0.130
Portsmouth	-0.152	0.000	-0.152
Barnsley	-0.239	0.000	-0.239
Derby County	-0.283	0.000	-0.283
Crystal Palace	-0.543	0.000	-0.543
Preston North End	-0.543	0.000	-0.543
Doncaster Rovers	-0.565	0.000	-0.565
Sheffield United	-0.761	0.000	-0.761
Scunthorpe United	-0.957	0.000	-0.957

You will notice that the strength of schedule (SOS) for all teams is now zero.  This is because every team has played every other team an equal number of times (twice).  In general, SOS will converge towards zero as the season progresses.  Also, whenever a league has a balanced schedule, like the Championship, it will also converge to zero.

After the jump, my playoff predictions:

League Championship Weekend Wrapup

The Championship finished their regular season on Saturday and congratulations to Queens Park Rangers and Norwich City who earned automatic promotions to the Premier League.  QPR finished first with 88 points, 4 points ahead of the Canaries.  QPR was awaiting word from the Football Association which was ruling on irregularities concerning the economic rights of player Alejandro Faurlin.  There was the possibility of a points deduction which could have cost them the title.  However, the FA fined QPR instead so the Rangers get to bring home the trophy. 

Rangers return to the Premier for the first time since relegation following the 1996 season.  For Norwich they last played in the top flight in 2005.  Since then they struggled and were actually relegated into League One, one level below the Championship, after the 2009 season.  They bounced back and won the League one title in 2010 and then earned a second consecutive promotion this season.

The playoffs are all set.  Swansea City will face Nottingham Forest while Cardiff City takes on Reading.  Playoffs schedule can be found here.  Swansea managed to get third place, finishing ahead of their Welsh rivals Cardiff based on goal differential.  Nottingham's win over Crystal Palace gave them the points they needed to stay ahead of Leeds United who beat QPR on Saturday.

The Championship bids farewell to the three relegated teams, Preston North End, Sheffield United and Scunthorpe United.  Preston had the longest current tenure at this level of any team in the league, having been here for 11 consecutive seasons.  Scunthorpe's stay was brief, just one season as they return back to League One after earning promotion from there last year.  Sheffield United ends a four-season run after relegation from the Premier League and will also be returning dropping to League One.  Moving up from that level will be champions Brighton & Hove Albion and runner-up Southampton.  The third spot will be filled by the winner of the League One playoffs.

After the jump I will review the results of my weekend predictions.

League Championship Weekend Predictions

This is the next to last weekend of the regular season for the Championship.  Much can be decided.  Here are my predictions:

Watford 1 Queens Park Rangers 1
Ipswich Town 2 Preston North End 2
Hull City 1 Crystal Palace 0
Leeds United 2 Burnley 2
Derby County 2 Bristol City 2
Sheffield United 1 Barnsley 1
Doncaster Rovers 1 Leicester City 1
Nottingham Forest 2 Scunthorpe United 1
Millwall 2 Swansea City 1
Coventry City 1 Reading 2
Portsmouth 1 Norwich City 1
Cardiff City 2 Middlesbrough 1

QPR clinches the title with a win.  A draw will guarantee a top two finish and automatic promotion.  Both Norwich and Cardiff need to win to keep their title hopes alive.  Reading clinches a playoff spot with a draw or better.  At the bottom of the table, Scunthorpe and Sheffield both need wins to stave off relegation while hoping for losses by Doncaster and Crystal Palace.

League Championship Easter Monday Results and Updated Projection

Unlike in the US, Easter Monday is a holiday in the UK.  One of the ways they celebrate is by playing soccer.  All 24 teams in the Championship played today.  Here is how they performed vs my predictions:

Burnley 1 Portsmouth 1 (-10 pts)
Scunthorpe United 1 Millwall 2 (+30 pts)
Preston North End 0 Cardiff City 1 (+15 pts)
Swansea City 4 Ipswich Town 1 (+10 pts)
Bristol City 2 Nottingham Forest 3 (-10 pts)
Leicester City 4 Watford 2 (-10 pts)
Queens Park Rangers 1 Hull City 1 (-10 pts)
Barnsley 2 Doncaster Rovers 2 (-10 pts)
Reading 2 Sheffield United 3 (-10 pts)
Norwich 3 Derby County 2 (+15 pts)
Middlesbrough 2 Coventry City 1 (-10 pts)
Crystal Palace 1 Leeds United 0 (-10 pts)

Overall score was -10 pts and I projected 4 of 12 outcomes correctly.

A victory by QPR would have clinched the title but Hull City held them to a draw.  Meanwhile Norwich and Cardiff's wins kept their title hopes alive.  Cardiff's victory over Preston North End clinched relegation for the Lillywhites.

After the jump, my updated projection.

League Championship Predictions - 4/25

The Championship is celebrating Easter Monday with a full slate of matches.  here are my predictions:

Burnley 2 Portsmouth 1
Scunthorpe United 1 Millwall 2
Preston North End 1 Cardiff City 2
Swansea City 1 Ipswich Town 0
Bristol City 1 Nottingham Forest 1
Leicester City 2 Watford 2
Queens Park Rangers 2 Hull City 1
Barnsley 2 Doncaster Rovers 1
Reading 2 Sheffield United 0
Norwich City 2 Derby County 1
Middlesbrough 1 Coventry City 1
Crystal Palace 1 Leeds United 1

If Queens Park Rangers wins tomorrow, they will be champions.  If they draw, Cardiff City and Norwich City need to win to keep their hopes alive.  Reading's title hopes were dashed over the weekend.

League Championship Weekend Results and Updated Projection

My predictions fared pretty well this weekend.  Here is a recap:

Ipswich Town 1 Norwich City 5 (+10 pts)
Coventry City 1 Scunthorpe United 1 (-10 pts)
Leeds United 0 Reading 0 (+20 pts)
Doncaster Rovers 0 Crystal Palace 0 (-10 pts)
Nottingham Forest 3 Leicester City 2 (+15 pts)
Portsmouth 0 Swansea City 0 (+20 pts)
Millwall 4 Preston North End 0 (+10 pts)
Hull City 2 Middlesbrough 4 (-10 pts)
Derby County 2 Burnley 4 (-10 pts)
Watford 1 Barnsley 0 (+15 pts)
Cardiff City 2 Queens Park Rangers 2 (+20 pts)
Sheffield United 3 Bristol City 2 (-10 pts)

Predicted the correct outcome in 7 of the 12 matches.  Total score for the week is +60 points.  After the jump, my updated projection for the table:

League Championship Rankings - 4/21

Here are the latest rankings through matches of 4/19:

Team	MOV	SOS	SRS
Queens Park Rangers	0.905	-0.029	0.875
Reading	0.619	0.020	0.639
Cardiff City	0.571	-0.005	0.566
Norwich City	0.452	0.007	0.459
Swansea City	0.429	0.015	0.444
Millwall	0.286	0.029	0.315
Nottingham Forest	0.238	0.039	0.277
Watford	0.262	-0.007	0.255
Leeds United	0.238	-0.029	0.209
Hull City	0.143	-0.001	0.142
Burnley	0.071	-0.013	0.058
Leicester City	0.048	-0.001	0.047
Ipswich Town	0.048	-0.009	0.038
Coventry City	-0.071	0.001	-0.071
Bristol City	-0.143	0.013	-0.129
Portsmouth	-0.143	-0.003	-0.146
Derby County	-0.167	-0.023	-0.189
Middlesbrough	-0.214	-0.002	-0.216
Barnsley	-0.262	0.020	-0.242
Doncaster Rovers	-0.548	0.029	-0.519
Preston North End	-0.500	-0.030	-0.530
Crystal Palace	-0.548	0.000	-0.548
Sheffield United	-0.786	-0.015	-0.800
Scunthorpe United	-0.929	-0.004	-0.933

Reading is the hottest team in the Championship at the moment.  They are on a 12-match unbeaten streak in league competition with 9 wins and 3 draws over that span.  Compared to last week, Burnley saw the most improvement improving by 0.079 points and moving up two spots to 11th overall.  Portsmouth is the biggest loser, dropping 0.060 points and two spots to 16th place.