MLS Week 21 Recap

Had a so-so week with my predictions as you can see below:



Predicted Score				Actual Score				Points
Colorado	1	Columbus	1	Colorado	2	Columbus	0	-10
D.C. United	2	Toronto FC	1	D.C. United	3	Toronto FC	3	-10
New England	1	Chivas USA	2	New  England	2	Chivas USA	3	15
Philadelphia	1	Houston	0	Philadelphia	1	Houston	1	-10
Kansas City	1	Seattle	1	Kansas City	1	Seattle	2	-10
Real Salt Lake	2	New York	1	Real Salt Lake	3	New York	0	10
Los Angeles	1	FC Dallas	0	Los Angeles	3	FC Dallas	1	10
San Jose	2	Portland	1	San Jose	1	Portland	1	-10
Vancouver	1	Chicago	1	Vancouver	4	Chicago	2	-10
						Total		-25

My accuracy was 3 for 9 on the outcomes and I did not predict any scores correctly.  My outcome accuracy is now 39.6% for the season.  Let's see how the new SRS ratings look:



Team	MOV	SOS	SRS	Change
Real Salt Lake	0.667	-0.008	0.659	-0.011
Los Angeles	0.600	-0.043	0.557	-0.096
Seattle	0.333	-0.016	0.318	0.034
FC Dallas	0.292	0.015	0.307	-0.067
Philadelphia	0.318	-0.016	0.302	-0.034
Colorado	0.160	0.028	0.188	0.077
New York	0.167	0.020	0.186	-0.107
Chivas USA	0.174	-0.018	0.156	0.010
Columbus	0.087	0.037	0.124	-0.081
Houston	0.000	0.024	0.024	0.005
Kansas City	0.087	-0.065	0.022	0.102
D.C. United	-0.190	-0.010	-0.201	-0.057
San Jose	-0.217	0.009	-0.209	-0.024
Portland	-0.318	0.027	-0.291	0.183
Chicago	-0.318	0.020	-0.298	-0.079
New England	-0.478	0.041	-0.438	-0.017
Vancouver	-0.478	-0.039	-0.517	0.092
Toronto FC	-0.880	-0.011	-0.891	0.029

Both Real Salt Lake and Los Angeles won one and lost one last week.  However, LA's loss to Portland hurt their SRS rating more than RSL's loss to Columbus due to Portland being the weaker team.  Conversely, Portland's victory over LA allowed them to register the biggest gain in the ratings.

MLS Season Projection Week 20

After a weekend full of upsets we have quite a shake-up in the season projection.  Here are the projected standings based on results through week 20:



East
Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Philadelphia	34	13	16	5	42	29	13	55
2	Columbus	34	12	14	8	37	29	8	50
3	New York	34	11	16	7	54	42	12	49
4	D.C. United	34	10	16	8	46	49	-3	46
5	Kansas City	34	8	19	7	45	41	4	43
6	Houston	34	9	13	12	39	40	-1	40
7	Chicago	34	3	20	11	35	44	-9	29
8	New England	34	4	15	15	30	45	-15	27
9	Toronto FC	34	3	13	18	30	60	-30	22
West
Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Los Angeles	34	18	14	2	47	25	22	68
2	Real Salt Lake	34	16	14	4	45	25	20	62
3	FC Dallas	34	16	12	6	43	30	13	60
4	Seattle	34	14	15	5	47	37	10	57
5	Colorado	34	10	17	7	46	42	4	47
6	Chivas USA	34	9	16	9	42	38	4	43
7	San Jose	34	6	15	13	38	47	-9	33
8	Portland	34	9	6	19	39	58	-19	33
9	Vancouver	34	3	13	18	32	52	-20	22

Los Angeles moves ahead of RSL for the Western Conference title and best record in the league.  In the East, Columbus is now projected to finish 2nd with D.C. United moving up to 4th and Kansas City dropping out of the top three into 5th.  I'm now projecting United to make the playoffs as a wild card along with KC.  The MLS Cup final will be Los Angeles vs Philadelphia.  Since it will be played at the Home Depot Center, it will effectively be a home game for the Galaxy so I project them to win the Cup.