Impact of Promotion from Championship to Premier League - Part II

Yesterday I posted about the changes in promoted teams' stats in their first season in the Premier League.  On average, newly promoted teams reduce goals scored by 0.55/game, increase goals allowed by 0.60/game and reduce their points earned by 0.81/game.  I now want to apply those rates against the Championship stats of the three promoted teams to estimate how they will fare next season.

First, Queens Park Rangers with 88 pts,  71 goals scored and 32 goals allowed.  They averaged 88/46 or 1.91 points/match.  If we reduce this rate by 0.81 then they would earn 1.11 points/match in the Premier League or 42 points over a 38-game season.  This would most likely guarantee survival as only two teams have been relegated with as many as 42 points (Middlesborough 1997 and West Ham 2003) since the league went to 20 teams in 1996.  Their goal scoring rate would decline from 1.54 to 1.00/game or 38 goals.  Goals allowed would increase from 0.70 to 1.30 goals/match or 49 goals for the season.  The table below summarizes each team's projected results:

 

Club	League	Season	Matches	Points	GF	GA
Queens Park Rangers	Championship	2010-11	46	88	71	32
	Premier	2011-12	38	42	38	49
Norwich City	Championship	2010-11	46	84	83	58
	Premier	2011-12	38	39	48	71
Swansea City	Championship	2010-11	46	80	69	43
	Premier	2011-12	38	35	36	58

So I would expect QPR to survive.  The odds for Norwich and Swansea are not as good.  40 points is generally considered the safety threshold, but teams have survived with as little as 34 points (West Brom 2005).  Norwich has a decent chance of avoiding relegation at 39 points but I can't see Swansea  also surviving at 35 points.  Only in 2001 did all three promoted teams avoid relegation.  So my prediction is that QPR will survive, Norwich has a 50/50 chance and Swansea will be relegated.

Impact of Promotion from Championship to Premier League

Swansea City won the League Championship playoff final on Monday earning their first-ever promotion to the Premier League.  The Swans will become the first Welsh team to play in the Premiership.  They join Queens Park Rangers and Norwich City as next season's newcomers.  Obviously these three will be facing a higher level of competition, but can we quantify how much tougher it is? 

I decided to compare the performance of teams in their promotion season to their prior season in the Championship to measure the difference in quality between both leagues.  Going back to the 1993-94 season, 53 teams have been promoted from the Championship (or First Division as it was previously named) to the Premier League.  The table below shows the average changes in points and goals after promotion:



	Points	GF	GA	% Relegated
Championship Results/Match	1.87	1.67	1.00
Premiership Results/Match	1.06	1.12	1.60	47%
Change	-0.81	-0.55	0.60

A little less than half of the promoted teams were relegated after one season.  These teams had an average goal differential of 0.67/match in the Championship but this dropped to -0.48/match in the Premiership.  Net change was 1.15 goals/match worse than the Championship season. 

So can we say that teams from the Premier league are 1.15 goals/game better than their Championship counterparts?  Maybe so but since we are comparing results from one season to the next we have to account for changes in players, changes in management and changes in spending.  Currently a promotion to the Premier League is estimated to provide about £90 million of additional income to the promoted teams.  How they choose to spend that money can have a big impact on their performance.  

However, the impact of those factors (players, managers, income) is hard to quantify.  So more work needs to be done in this area to refine this, but for now I'm using the 1.15 goals as a yardstick to differentiate the quality levels between the leagues.

English League Championship Playoff Preview

After playing conservative first legs, all sides went full bore in the second.  Swansea and Reading each scored 3 goals and are moving on to the Championship Playoff Final.  This will be Swansea's first appearance in the final.  Reading last appeared in the playoff final in 1995, losing to Bolton.  Reading also won the league title in 2006 earning an automatic promotion. 

So who to predict as the winner?  Hmmm... this is an extremely even matchup.  Including the playoff legs, both Swansea and Reading have a goal differential of 29 goals or 0.604/game.  The model I use to estimate number of goals scored projects 1.191 for Reading and 1.189 for Swansea.  So we could very easily see extra-time and possibly penalty kicks deciding this match.  The final will be played at Wembley Stadium in London so it's technically a neutral site.  However, Reading is only 40 miles west of London while Swansea is 190 miles west.  So Reading should have the big edge in supporters, practically making it a home game for them.  On the other hand, Swansea won both matches against Reading this season by identical 1-0 scores.

So not much to differentiate the two.  However, if we consider this a home game for Reading, making it a road game for Swansea, then we have to pick the Royals over the Swans.  Excluding playoffs Swansea had the best home record, leading the league in victories (15) , goal differential (30) and fewest goals allowed (11).  On the road, they struggled with a -3 goal differential.  So their success is driven by their home performance and they are merely average away from Swansea.  Reading on the other hand had a more balanced performance.  They are one of only four teams to have positive goal differential both home and away (QPR, Norwich and Cardiff were the others).  So they perform well no matter where they play.  So we can consider this match a home game for Reading or a neutral site game, but it is definitely not a home game for Swansea.  Therefore I'm giving the edge to Reading and picking them to return to the Premier League.

Championship Playoff Wrapup

Two stalemates to kickoff the Championship playoffs last week as both matches ended in 0-0 draws.  Swansea actually overcame a red card in the first minute of the match to hold off Nottingham.  Despite being a man down for almost the entire match, the Swans still had several opportunities to score.  In the other match Cardiff held Reading to a draw despite losing their captain Craig Bellamy to injury in the first-half.

Both Welsh teams will be at home for the second legs and have to be considered favorites for meeting in an all-Welsh final.  As you can see from the tables below, Swansea is actually the best home team in the league with a home SRS of 1.303 which is actually better than champions QPR.  Forest's Road SRS is -0.088 so I am confident that Swansea will win at home this week and move on to the final.  I'm not quite as confident about Cardiff's chances as Reading has the second best road SRS in the league.  The SRS ratings still give a slight edge to Cardiff so I'm projecting they will meet the Swans in the final at Wembley.

Home SRS			Away SRS
Team	SRS		Team	SRS
Swansea City	1.303		Queens Park Rangers	0.476
Queens Park Rangers	1.215		Reading	0.347
Nottingham Forest	0.900		Norwich City	0.346
Leicester City	0.911		Cardiff City	0.274
Reading	0.770		Hull City	-0.046
Norwich City	0.737		Watford	-0.046
Millwall	0.737		Ipswich Town	-0.089
Cardiff City	0.695		Leeds United	-0.089
Leeds United	0.563		Nottingham Forest	-0.088
Burnley	0.433		Swansea City	-0.109

If we do have a Swansea vs Cardiff final, I project that Swansea will emerge victorious and earn their first-ever promotion to the Premier League.

English League Championship Final SRS Rankings and Playoff Predictions

Here are the final rankings for the Championship:

Team	MOV	SOS	SRS
Queens Park Rangers	0.848	0.000	0.848
Swansea City	0.587	0.000	0.587
Reading	0.565	0.000	0.565
Norwich City	0.543	0.000	0.543
Cardiff City	0.478	0.000	0.478
Nottingham Forest	0.413	0.000	0.413
Millwall	0.304	0.000	0.304
Leeds United	0.239	0.000	0.239
Watford	0.130	0.000	0.130
Leicester City	0.109	0.000	0.109
Burnley	0.087	0.000	0.087
Hull City	0.022	0.000	0.022
Middlesbrough	0.000	0.000	0.000
Bristol City	-0.065	0.000	-0.065
Coventry City	-0.087	0.000	-0.087
Ipswich Town	-0.130	0.000	-0.130
Portsmouth	-0.152	0.000	-0.152
Barnsley	-0.239	0.000	-0.239
Derby County	-0.283	0.000	-0.283
Crystal Palace	-0.543	0.000	-0.543
Preston North End	-0.543	0.000	-0.543
Doncaster Rovers	-0.565	0.000	-0.565
Sheffield United	-0.761	0.000	-0.761
Scunthorpe United	-0.957	0.000	-0.957

You will notice that the strength of schedule (SOS) for all teams is now zero.  This is because every team has played every other team an equal number of times (twice).  In general, SOS will converge towards zero as the season progresses.  Also, whenever a league has a balanced schedule, like the Championship, it will also converge to zero.

After the jump, my playoff predictions:

League Championship Weekend Wrapup

The Championship finished their regular season on Saturday and congratulations to Queens Park Rangers and Norwich City who earned automatic promotions to the Premier League.  QPR finished first with 88 points, 4 points ahead of the Canaries.  QPR was awaiting word from the Football Association which was ruling on irregularities concerning the economic rights of player Alejandro Faurlin.  There was the possibility of a points deduction which could have cost them the title.  However, the FA fined QPR instead so the Rangers get to bring home the trophy. 

Rangers return to the Premier for the first time since relegation following the 1996 season.  For Norwich they last played in the top flight in 2005.  Since then they struggled and were actually relegated into League One, one level below the Championship, after the 2009 season.  They bounced back and won the League one title in 2010 and then earned a second consecutive promotion this season.

The playoffs are all set.  Swansea City will face Nottingham Forest while Cardiff City takes on Reading.  Playoffs schedule can be found here.  Swansea managed to get third place, finishing ahead of their Welsh rivals Cardiff based on goal differential.  Nottingham's win over Crystal Palace gave them the points they needed to stay ahead of Leeds United who beat QPR on Saturday.

The Championship bids farewell to the three relegated teams, Preston North End, Sheffield United and Scunthorpe United.  Preston had the longest current tenure at this level of any team in the league, having been here for 11 consecutive seasons.  Scunthorpe's stay was brief, just one season as they return back to League One after earning promotion from there last year.  Sheffield United ends a four-season run after relegation from the Premier League and will also be returning dropping to League One.  Moving up from that level will be champions Brighton & Hove Albion and runner-up Southampton.  The third spot will be filled by the winner of the League One playoffs.

After the jump I will review the results of my weekend predictions.

League Championship Rankings - 4/14

Team	MOV	SOS	SRS
Queens Park Rangers	0.927	-0.023	0.904
Reading	0.585	0.017	0.602
Cardiff City	0.512	-0.003	0.509
Swansea City	0.463	0.012	0.475
Norwich City	0.439	-0.001	0.438
Millwall	0.317	0.033	0.350
Nottingham Forest	0.268	0.027	0.296
Watford	0.268	-0.013	0.255
Leeds United	0.244	-0.036	0.208
Hull City	0.098	0.011	0.108
Leicester City	0.098	-0.017	0.081
Ipswich Town	0.024	-0.008	0.017
Burnley	0.000	-0.021	-0.021
Portsmouth	-0.073	-0.013	-0.086
Coventry City	-0.098	-0.005	-0.103
Bristol City	-0.122	0.014	-0.108
Middlesbrough	-0.175	0.009	-0.166
Derby County	-0.171	-0.045	-0.216
Barnsley	-0.268	0.020	-0.248
Doncaster Rovers	-0.512	0.023	-0.489
Crystal Palace	-0.537	0.027	-0.510
Preston North End	-0.561	-0.010	-0.571
Sheffield United	-0.756	-0.002	-0.758
Scunthorpe United	-0.976	0.005	-0.971

These rankings include matches from last weekend and this past Tuesday.  Norwich dropped two spots from last week due to their loss to Swansea.  Leicester moves up three spots after their big win over Burnley, who coincidentally dropped three spots.  Coventry City also moved up three spots and seems to be revitalized after changing coaches.