Yesterday I posted about the changes in promoted teams' stats in their first season in the Premier League. On average, newly promoted teams reduce goals scored by 0.55/game, increase goals allowed by 0.60/game and reduce their points earned by 0.81/game. I now want to apply those rates against the Championship stats of the three promoted teams to estimate how they will fare next season.
First, Queens Park Rangers with 88 pts, 71 goals scored and 32 goals allowed. They averaged 88/46 or 1.91 points/match. If we reduce this rate by 0.81 then they would earn 1.11 points/match in the Premier League or 42 points over a 38-game season. This would most likely guarantee survival as only two teams have been relegated with as many as 42 points (Middlesborough 1997 and West Ham 2003) since the league went to 20 teams in 1996. Their goal scoring rate would decline from 1.54 to 1.00/game or 38 goals. Goals allowed would increase from 0.70 to 1.30 goals/match or 49 goals for the season. The table below summarizes each team's projected results:
| Club | League | Season | Matches | Points | GF | GA |
| Queens Park Rangers | Championship | 2010-11 | 46 | 88 | 71 | 32 |
| | Premier | 2011-12 | 38 | 42 | 38 | 49 |
| Norwich City | Championship | 2010-11 | 46 | 84 | 83 | 58 |
| | Premier | 2011-12 | 38 | 39 | 48 | 71 |
| Swansea City | Championship | 2010-11 | 46 | 80 | 69 | 43 |
| | Premier | 2011-12 | 38 | 35 | 36 | 58 |
So I would expect QPR to survive. The odds for Norwich and Swansea are not as good. 40 points is generally considered the safety threshold, but teams have survived with as little as 34 points (West Brom 2005). Norwich has a decent chance of avoiding relegation at 39 points but I can't see Swansea also surviving at 35 points. Only in 2001 did all three promoted teams avoid relegation. So my prediction is that QPR will survive, Norwich has a 50/50 chance and Swansea will be relegated.
Manchester United is now on the brink of clinching the title after their home victory over Chelsea. With a 6-point lead United needs merely one point in the next two matches to regain their status as Premier League champions.
Liverpool continues their scorching hot play as they destroyed Fulham 5-2. This victory combined with Tottenham's draw against Blackpool pushes the Reds into 5th place which is the final European spot in the league.
At the bottom of the table, Wolves jumped outside of the relegation zone with a 3-1 win over West Brom. Despite the loss, 13th-placed West Brom is safe from relegation, but every team below them has some work to do if they want to return to the Premier next year.
After the jump I will recap my predictions from the weekend.
Here are my projected final standings for the Premier League, updated for this past weekend's results:
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
| 1 | Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | 80 | 39 | 41 | 85 |
| 2 | Manchester United | 38 | 23 | 11 | 4 | 80 | 39 | 41 | 80 |
| 3 | Chelsea | 38 | 23 | 7 | 8 | 70 | 31 | 39 | 76 |
| 4 | Manchester City | 38 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 56 | 34 | 22 | 69 |
| 5 | Tottenham Hotspur | 38 | 18 | 11 | 9 | 53 | 44 | 9 | 65 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 38 | 16 | 9 | 13 | 51 | 45 | 6 | 57 |
| 7 | Everton | 38 | 12 | 15 | 11 | 52 | 51 | 1 | 51 |
| 8 | Bolton Wanderers | 38 | 11 | 16 | 11 | 52 | 51 | 1 | 49 |
| 9 | Sunderland | 38 | 11 | 16 | 11 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 49 |
| 10 | Newcastle United | 38 | 12 | 11 | 15 | 56 | 58 | -2 | 47 |
| 11 | Stoke City | 38 | 13 | 6 | 19 | 44 | 49 | -5 | 45 |
| 12 | Aston Villa | 38 | 12 | 9 | 17 | 48 | 63 | -15 | 45 |
| 13 | Fulham | 38 | 8 | 19 | 11 | 41 | 42 | -1 | 43 |
| 14 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 45 | 62 | -17 | 41 |
| 15 | West Ham United | 38 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 47 | 63 | -16 | 40 |
| 16 | Blackburn Rovers | 38 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 49 | 65 | -16 | 39 |
| 17 | West Bromwich Albion | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 52 | 71 | -19 | 38 |
| 18 | Blackpool | 38 | 9 | 10 | 19 | 55 | 76 | -21 | 37 |
| 19 | Birmingham City | 38 | 6 | 17 | 15 | 35 | 54 | -19 | 35 |
| 20 | Wigan Athletic | 38 | 6 | 15 | 17 | 36 | 64 | -28 | 33 |
No change in the top 6. Arsenal's lead over Man United shrinks by 2 points because they only managed a draw instead of a win at West Brom. The additional point West Brom earned was enough to pull them clear of relegation. Birmingham's loss to Wigan really hurt their prospects and they are now projected for relegation. Wolves' upset victory over Villa helped them quite a bit, moving them up three spots to 14th.
The English Leagues will be taking a two-week break for international matches, so I won't have much to post in that time. I will spend that time developing a model for the MLS. Stay tuned!
