MLS Week 19 SRS Ratings and Season Projection

Real Salt Lake's big win over San Jose had a big impact on the SRS table and the season projection.  Here are the SRS ratings:



Team	MOV	SOS	SRS	Change
Real Salt Lake	0.833	-0.015	0.818	0.208
Los Angeles	0.545	-0.023	0.522	0.033
Philadelphia	0.421	-0.006	0.415	-0.005
Seattle	0.409	-0.031	0.378	-0.010
FC Dallas	0.364	-0.035	0.329	0.005
New York	0.304	-0.021	0.284	-0.177
Chivas USA	0.190	-0.001	0.190	0.131
Columbus	0.095	-0.011	0.084	-0.024
Colorado	0.043	-0.002	0.041	0.144
Kansas City	0.050	-0.097	-0.047	0.069
San Jose	-0.143	0.080	-0.063	-0.202
Houston	-0.095	-0.006	-0.102	-0.141
Chicago	-0.250	0.033	-0.217	0.014
D.C. United	-0.316	0.042	-0.274	-0.094
New England	-0.476	0.036	-0.440	0.107
Portland	-0.526	0.077	-0.450	0.012
Vancouver	-0.429	-0.035	-0.463	0.042
Toronto FC	-0.957	0.017	-0.940	-0.045

The SRS ratings are heavily influenced by margin of victory so RSL's 4-goal margin caused the biggest swings for them and San Jose.  Let's see how it influenced the season projections:



East
Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Philadelphia	34	15	14	5	43	28	15	59
2	New York	34	11	16	7	54	42	12	49
3	Kansas City	34	11	16	7	46	40	6	49
4	Columbus	34	12	11	11	34	32	2	47
5	D.C. United	34	7	17	10	44	53	-9	38
6	Houston	34	7	15	12	36	41	-5	36
7	Chicago	34	3	22	9	35	44	-9	31
8	New England	34	4	13	17	30	46	-16	25
9	Toronto FC	34	3	12	19	28	61	-33	21
West
Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Real Salt Lake	34	17	14	3	47	22	25	65
2	Los Angeles	34	16	16	2	43	26	17	64
3	FC Dallas	34	15	13	6	43	32	11	58
4	Seattle	34	14	16	4	47	34	13	58
5	Colorado	34	9	17	8	44	43	1	44
6	Chivas USA	34	9	17	8	45	39	6	44
7	Portland	34	11	5	18	40	59	-19	38
8	San Jose	34	6	16	12	41	44	-3	34
9	Vancouver	34	3	16	15	34	48	-14	25

So I'm now projecting RSL to finish ahead of Los Angeles in the West.  The Western Conference final will be between those two teams.  With the better record RSL gets the home field advantage.  This is key because these two teams have the highest home SRS Ratings (RSL @ 1.266, LA @ 0.839) so whichever team can secure home field will be in the driver's seat for reaching the MLS Cup.  I'm still projecting Philadelphia to secure the Eastern Conference berth in the Cup final.  My new prediction for MLS Cup champion is RSL.

MLS Season Projection

Now that Kansas City has a few home games under their belt, we now have enough data to run projections for the entire season.  So without further ado, here are my projected standings for each conference:



East
Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Philadelphia	34	17	11	6	41	27	14	62
2	New York	34	13	18	3	54	39	15	57
3	Kansas City	34	11	15	8	39	34	5	48
4	Columbus	34	13	9	12	38	35	3	48
5	Chicago	34	5	22	7	38	41	-3	37
6	Houston	34	6	17	11	39	42	-3	35
7	D.C. United	34	5	14	15	48	60	-12	29
8	New England	34	3	13	18	23	43	-20	22
9	Toronto FC	34	2	13	19	29	56	-27	19
West
Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Real Salt Lake	34	18	13	3	42	19	23	67
2	Los Angeles	34	16	16	2	43	27	16	64
3	FC Dallas	34	14	14	6	45	34	11	56
4	Seattle	34	13	17	4	42	33	9	56
5	San Jose	34	10	16	8	48	41	7	46
6	Colorado	34	9	15	10	36	40	-4	42
7	Portland	34	10	7	17	39	61	-22	37
8	Chivas USA	34	5	17	12	41	45	-4	32
9	Vancouver	34	4	17	13	37	47	-10	29

Some questions you may ask me after seeing these projections:

Why do you think Real Salt Lake, currently sitting in 4th place, will beat out Los Angeles to win the West?

1. RSL currently has four matches in hand on Los Angeles (15 matches for RSL vs 19 for LA).
2. RSL has the best goal differential/match of any team in the league (0.6 goals/match).
3. Based on current results, LA has played the easiest schedule in the league so far.  For the remainder of the year, they will have the toughest schedule.
4. RSL crushed LA 4-1 in their first meeting this year.

Why do you think that Kansas City will finish 3rd in the East and earn a playoff berth?

1. Because of the delayed opening of their stadium, 14 of their remaining 19 matches will be at home.
2. KC is undefeated in their first 3 home matches with 2 wins and a draw and only one goal allowed.
3. Although winning only 2 matches in their season-opening 11-game road trip, they finished the trip with 3 draws and a spectacular 4-1 victory at FC Dallas.  In fact they are currently riding a 7-match unbeaten streak.
4. Basically they are the hottest team in the league at the moment and I think they will ride this momentum into a playoff berth.

What are your predictions for the playoffs and MLS Cup?

1. The MLS expanded their playoffs to include 10 teams this season.  The top three teams from each conference automatically qualify.  The four teams with the best overall records that finish outside of their conference's top three also qualify as wild cards.  Based on my projection above, that would be Seattle, Columbus, San Jose and Colorado.  I'm picking Seattle and Columbus to emerge from the wild card round.
2. In the 2nd round I pick RSL to beat Columbus, LA to beat Dallas, Philadelphia to beat Seattle and New York to beat KC.
3. Conference finals:  RSL over LA and Philly over NY.
4. MLS Cup:  RSL over Philadelphia.

The season is only halfway over and there is still a lot of soccer to play, but my early prediction is that Real Salt Lake will win the MLS Cup.