MLS Week 20 Predictions

The MLS returns to action this weekend after the All-Star break.  Hopefully this weekend's action will allow the league's best to get over their 4-0 thrashing by Manchester United.  We have a total of eight matches this weekend.  New York will be playing in the Emirates Cup tournament in London which features Thierry Henry's return to the Emirates Stadium.  Chicago is idle  Here are my predictions:



Predicted Score
Philadelphia	2	Colorado	1
Vancouver	1	Los Angeles	1
Kansas City	2	New England	1
Houston	1	Seattle	1
Real Salt Lake	2	Columbus	0
San Jose	1	D.C. United	1
Portland	3	Toronto FC	2
FC Dallas	1	Chivas USA	1

Another scoreless draw: MLS 0 Fans 0

The MLS was hoping to generate some buzz with the debut of the new Live Strong Park in Kansas City.  Unfortunately this matchup featured two of the worst teams in the league, Kansas City and Chicago, and the match ended in a scoreless draw.  Coming off a weekend that featured three 0-0 results the MLS has a real scoring problem.  So far this season the league is averaging only 2.32 goals/match.  By comparison the English Premier and Championship Leagues averaged 2.80 and 2.73 goals/match respectively.


The scoring drought is not a recent phenomenon.  The table below shows average goals/match for every MLS season going back to the inaugural 1996 season:

Season	Goals per Match
1996	3.37
1997	3.26
1998	3.57
1999	2.86
2000	3.19
2001	3.28
2002	3.01
2003	2.89
2004	2.61
2005	2.87
2006	2.62
2007	2.66
2008	2.81
2009	2.53
2010	2.46
2011	2.32

So far 2011 is the lowest scoring season in the history of the league.  This and the prior two seasons have been the three lowest scoring seasons ever.  Interesting to note that the league averaged over 3 goals/match for six of its first seven seasons, but hasn't reached that level since 2002.

One of the consequences of the lack of scoring is that more matches end up in draws.  I think this is because teams know they can still earn a point even if they don't score and can prevent the other team from doing so.  so they start to play conservatively if they can't score an early goal.  So far this season 39% of all MLS matches have ended up in draws.  In the higher-scoring English leagues, the draw rate was 29% in the Premier league and 27% in the Championship.  Also, the MLS has had 14 0-0 draws in 112 total matches.  That's exactly one out of every eight matches (12.5%) ending scoreless or effectively at least one match/week.  The Premier had 6.6% scoreless matches and the Championship 7.2%.


For better or for worse, American sports fans like to watch sports that feature offense.  The MLS isn't providing that.  Even hardcore soccer fans, like myself, don't enjoy watching 0-0 matches.  This league is playing the same game as everybody else in the world but is not getting the same results.  Not sure how attendance is faring but the league needs to do a better job of developing new talent or import more talent from abroad to reverse the trend.  Otherwise attendance will suffer and the league as well.

MLS Weekend Predictions

As we enter summer the MLS will be going through a phase of transition.  With the upcoming CONCACAF Gold Cup, most teams will be losing some of their best players to their national teams.  We also have two teams, Chicago and Vancouver, with new coaches.  Makes my predictions tougher but here they are anyway:

Predicted Score
Los Angeles	3	D.C. United	1
Toronto FC	2	Kansas City	2
New York	2	Columbus	0
FC Dallas	1	New England	0
Chicago	1	Seattle	2
Colorado	1	Philadelphia	1
Real Salt Lake	1	Vancouver	0
San Jose	1	Houston	1
Chivas USA	2	Portland	1

MLS Weekend Wrapup and SRS Rankings

I took a break last week to honeymoon with my beautiful wife so I have no predictions to recap for the weekend.  Here are some highlights from last weekend's MLS matches:

• Philadelphia scored 6(!) goals at Toronto.  The Union have been one of the top defensive teams in the league this season.  As you can see from the table below, they have the second best Defensive SRS in the league against the toughest offenses in the league.  However, their offense was one of the worst.  Prior to this match the Union had scored 8 goals in 10 matches overall and only 1 goal in 4 road matches.  We will have to see if this is a fluke or a sign that their offense has woken up.  If it has then matching that up with their stout defense would make this team a serious MLS Cup contender

Total Defensive SRS
Team	GA	SOS	SRS
Real Salt Lake	0.444	1.283	0.838
Philadelphia	0.818	1.313	0.495
Los Angeles	0.800	1.270	0.470
Seattle	0.929	1.296	0.367
New York	0.917	1.276	0.359

• Seattle snapped RSL's 29-game home unbeaten streak with a 2-1 victory at Rio Tinto.  RSL has really struggled since their loss in the CONCACAF Champions League final and the loss of Javier Morales hasn't helped.  I still think they are the best team in the league right now mainly due to their excellent defense.  But their loss to Seattle was the first time they had given up multiple goals in the league this season.  Their defense may be cracking under the strain of an anemic offense.  We will have to see if coach Jason Kreis can pull them out of this funk.
• The season is about one-third complete and we have seen our first coaching casualties.  Vancouver and Chicago both fired their coaches this week.  Each team has only one win this season with slim and fading hopes of making the playoffs.

Latest SRS rankings after the jump: