Premier League Wrapup and SRS Rankings

It certainly was an eventful weekend in the city of Manchester.  Manchester United clinched their 19th league championship breaking a tie with Liverpool for most all-time titles.  Manchester City defeated Stoke City on Saturday to win the FA Cup.  This was their 5th cup overall and first since 1969.  These two teams happened to have a rematch on Tuesday which was their rescheduled Premier League match.  Man City thrashed Stoke City 3-0 and moved one point ahead of Arsenal into 3rd place in the league.  The top 3 finishers in the Premier are automatically placed in the group stage of next season's Champions League.  4th place has to play through the qualifying rounds to earn a place in the group stage. 

Man City visits Bolton on Saturday while Arsenal travels to Fulham.  Here are the possible scenarios:

Man City win:  they clinch 3rd place and Arsenal ends up 4th.
Man City draw:  City clinches 3rd with an Arsenal loss or draw.  An Arsenal win gives them 3rd place.
Man City loss:  City clinches 3rd if Arsenal also loses.  Arsenal will clinch 3rd with a win or a draw (due to goal differential tiebreaker).

The 5th spot, which qualifies for the Europa League, is also in play between Tottenham and Liverpool with the Spurs holding a one-point edge.  Tottenham's victory at Liverpool last weekend puts them in the drivers seat.  They host Birmingham on Saturday while Liverpool visits Aston Villa.  These are the scenarios:

Tottenham win:  they clinch 5th place.
Tottenham draw:  Spurs clinch 5th with a Liverpool loss or draw.  Liverpool would need a win to pass them.
Tottenham loss:  Spurs clinch 5th if Liverpool also loses.  Liverpool will clinch 5th with a win or a draw (due to goal differential tiebreaker).

At the bottom of the table West Ham clinched relegation over the weekend and promptly fired their manager.  There are still five teams (Wolves, Blackburn, Birmingham, Blackpool and Wigan) that are in danger of filling the last two relegation spots.  There are myriad scenarios so I won't list them all.  I can say that if there is a winner in the Wolves vs Blackburn match, that team will be safe.  Otherwise, each team's fate is dependent on the outcome of other matches.

The latest SRS rankings are after the jump:

Premier League Projection and SRS Rankings

On Tuesday Manchester City defeated Tottenham 1-0, clinching a spot in the Champions League next season.  City also dealt a blow to Tottenham's hopes of grabbing 5th place and the final European spot for the Premier League.  The Spurs now sit in 6th, 2 points behind surging Liverpool. 

This nicely sets up a showdown between these two teams on Sunday at Anfield.  If Liverpool wins, they clinch 5th place and will return to the Europa League next season. A draw or a Spurs victory means that spot will still be up for grabs on the final weekend.  Here is my latest projection for the league:

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA		GD	Pts
1	Manchester United	38	23	11	4	77	36		41	80
2	Chelsea	38	23	7	8	71	31		40	76
3	Arsenal	38	21	10	7	73	41		32	73
4	Manchester City	38	20	9	9	58	34		24	69
5	Liverpool	38	18	8	12	62	43		19	62
6	Tottenham Hotspur	38	15	14	9	54	48		6	59
7	Everton	38	13	15	10	53	47		6	54
8	Stoke City	38	14	7	17	48	47		1	49
9	Bolton Wanderers	38	12	12	14	52	52		0	48
10	Sunderland	38	12	12	14	44	55		-11	48
11	Newcastle United	38	12	11	15	54	55		-1	47
12	Fulham	38	10	16	12	47	43		4	46
13	Aston Villa	38	10	13	15	47	61		-14	43
14	West Bromwich Albion	38	11	10	17	54	73		-19	43
15	Blackburn Rovers	38	10	10	18	45	59		-14	40
16	Birmingham City	38	8	16	14	37	57		-20	40
17	Wolverhampton Wanderers	38	11	7	20	44	66		-22	40
18	Blackpool	38	9	10	19	51	76		-25	37
19	Wigan Athletic	38	7	16	15	38	63		-25	37
20	West Ham United	38	7	14	17	44	66		-22	35

Man United should clinch the title on Saturday at Blackburn.  I'm also expecting Liverpool to wrap-up 5th place against Tottenham.  The three teams currently in the relegation zone, Blackpool, Wigan and West Ham will stay there and return to the Championship.

After the jump my SRS rankings for the Premier League:

Premier League Weekend Wrap Up

Manchester United is now on the brink of clinching the title after their home victory over Chelsea.  With a 6-point lead United needs merely one point in the next two matches to regain their status as Premier League champions. 

Liverpool continues their scorching hot play as they destroyed Fulham 5-2.  This victory combined with Tottenham's draw against Blackpool pushes the Reds into 5th place which is the final European spot in the league.

At the bottom of the table, Wolves jumped outside of the relegation zone with a 3-1 win over West Brom.  Despite the loss, 13th-placed West Brom is safe from relegation, but every team below them has some work to do if they want to return to the Premier next year.

After the jump I will recap my predictions from the weekend.

Premier League SRS Rankings

These rankings include the midweek matches from Tuesday and Wednesday:

Team	MOV	SOS	SRS	Change
Manchester United	1.147	-0.034	1.113	0.004
Chelsea	1.088	-0.050	1.039	0.045
Arsenal	0.912	-0.030	0.881	-0.057
Manchester City	0.636	0.006	0.642	0.000
Liverpool	0.353	0.000	0.352	0.126
Tottenham Hotspur	0.242	-0.029	0.214	-0.024
Everton	0.147	-0.016	0.131	0.004
Fulham	0.118	-0.012	0.106	0.071
Bolton Wanderers	0.029	0.027	0.056	-0.036
Stoke City	0.000	-0.004	-0.004	0.063
Newcastle United	0.029	-0.051	-0.022	-0.025
Sunderland	-0.294	0.038	-0.256	0.051
Aston Villa	-0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.006
West Bromwich Albion	-0.441	0.025	-0.416	0.025
Blackburn Rovers	-0.441	0.010	-0.431	0.011
Birmingham City	-0.500	0.014	-0.486	-0.129
West Ham United	-0.647	0.028	-0.619	-0.039
Wolverhampton Wanderers	-0.676	0.057	-0.620	-0.055
Wigan Athletic	-0.676	0.032	-0.645	-0.053
Blackpool	-0.647	-0.046	-0.693	0.025

This late in the season, changes in MOV will be the biggest drivers of changes in SRS.  SOS won't change much when each team has over 30 matches played.  This is proven out by the results of the Liverpool/Birmingham match over the weekend, won by the Reds 5-0.   The 5-goal margin allows Liverpool to move ahead of Tottenham in the rankings.  Could this be a precursor to a similar move in the table?  The Reds are only three points behind the Spurs at the moment.  That same margin hurts Birmingham's SRS by an equivalent amount and they drop 3 spots in the rankings.