League Championship Easter Monday Results and Updated Projection

Unlike in the US, Easter Monday is a holiday in the UK.  One of the ways they celebrate is by playing soccer.  All 24 teams in the Championship played today.  Here is how they performed vs my predictions:

Burnley 1 Portsmouth 1 (-10 pts)
Scunthorpe United 1 Millwall 2 (+30 pts)
Preston North End 0 Cardiff City 1 (+15 pts)
Swansea City 4 Ipswich Town 1 (+10 pts)
Bristol City 2 Nottingham Forest 3 (-10 pts)
Leicester City 4 Watford 2 (-10 pts)
Queens Park Rangers 1 Hull City 1 (-10 pts)
Barnsley 2 Doncaster Rovers 2 (-10 pts)
Reading 2 Sheffield United 3 (-10 pts)
Norwich 3 Derby County 2 (+15 pts)
Middlesbrough 2 Coventry City 1 (-10 pts)
Crystal Palace 1 Leeds United 0 (-10 pts)

Overall score was -10 pts and I projected 4 of 12 outcomes correctly.

A victory by QPR would have clinched the title but Hull City held them to a draw.  Meanwhile Norwich and Cardiff's wins kept their title hopes alive.  Cardiff's victory over Preston North End clinched relegation for the Lillywhites.

After the jump, my updated projection.

League Championship Weekend Results and Updated Projection

My predictions fared pretty well this weekend.  Here is a recap:

Ipswich Town 1 Norwich City 5 (+10 pts)
Coventry City 1 Scunthorpe United 1 (-10 pts)
Leeds United 0 Reading 0 (+20 pts)
Doncaster Rovers 0 Crystal Palace 0 (-10 pts)
Nottingham Forest 3 Leicester City 2 (+15 pts)
Portsmouth 0 Swansea City 0 (+20 pts)
Millwall 4 Preston North End 0 (+10 pts)
Hull City 2 Middlesbrough 4 (-10 pts)
Derby County 2 Burnley 4 (-10 pts)
Watford 1 Barnsley 0 (+15 pts)
Cardiff City 2 Queens Park Rangers 2 (+20 pts)
Sheffield United 3 Bristol City 2 (-10 pts)

Predicted the correct outcome in 7 of the 12 matches.  Total score for the week is +60 points.  After the jump, my updated projection for the table:

League Championship SRS Rankings - 4/6

Here are the latest SRS rankings for the Championship through yesterday's games:

Team	MOV	SOS	SRS
Queens Park Rangers	1.026	0.010	1.036
Reading	0.538	0.044	0.582
Norwich City	0.538	-0.019	0.519
Cardiff City	0.436	0.020	0.456
Swansea City	0.410	-0.008	0.402
Millwall	0.308	0.036	0.343
Watford	0.308	-0.031	0.276
Nottingham Forest	0.256	0.011	0.268
Leeds United	0.308	-0.049	0.259
Burnley	0.158	-0.031	0.127
Hull City	0.077	-0.014	0.063
Ipswich Town	0.000	0.012	0.012
Portsmouth	0.000	0.008	0.008
Leicester City	0.000	-0.004	-0.004
Bristol City	-0.077	0.018	-0.059
Middlesbrough	-0.211	0.032	-0.179
Coventry City	-0.179	0.000	-0.179
Derby County	-0.205	-0.061	-0.266
Barnsley	-0.308	-0.004	-0.311
Doncaster Rovers	-0.487	0.036	-0.451
Crystal Palace	-0.538	0.029	-0.509
Preston North End	-0.590	0.005	-0.585
Sheffield United	-0.718	-0.004	-0.722
Scunthorpe United	-1.051	-0.036	-1.088

Norwich's 6-0 thrashing of Scunthorpe allowed them to move up two spots to third overall.  Millwall also moved up two spots with a quality win over Hull City.

Here are the projected rankings for the remaining games:

Team	MOV	SOS	SRS
Queens Park Rangers	1.043	-0.139	0.904
Cardiff City	0.597	-0.008	0.590
Norwich City	0.480	0.097	0.577
Reading	0.886	-0.346	0.541
Swansea City	0.320	0.184	0.504
Nottingham Forest	0.365	-0.032	0.333
Watford	0.181	0.123	0.304
Hull City	0.096	0.161	0.256
Millwall	0.582	-0.346	0.236
Leicester City	0.029	0.186	0.215
Burnley	-0.028	0.122	0.094
Leeds United	-0.201	0.273	0.072
Portsmouth	0.142	-0.102	0.041
Ipswich Town	0.008	-0.064	-0.056
Barnsley	-0.209	0.140	-0.068
Middlesbrough	-0.022	-0.067	-0.089
Derby County	-0.544	0.301	-0.243
Coventry City	-0.273	0.026	-0.247
Doncaster Rovers	-0.163	-0.079	-0.242
Bristol City	-0.176	-0.087	-0.263
Preston North End	-0.561	0.062	-0.499
Sheffield United	-0.680	0.109	-0.571
Crystal Palace	-0.521	-0.164	-0.685
Scunthorpe United	-1.344	0.229	-1.115

Millwall has the easiest remaining schedule and this should fuel their rise into the playoffs.

League Championship Projection - 4/7/11

Based on all matches played as of 4/5, here is my latest projection for the Championship:

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA		GD	Pts
1	Queens Park Rangers	46	27	15	4	74	27		47	96
2	Norwich City	46	23	16	7	80	55		25	85
3	Cardiff City	46	24	11	11	75	55		20	83
4	Reading	46	21	17	8	77	50		27	80
5	Swansea City	46	23	9	14	63	45		18	78
6	Millwall	46	19	15	12	62	47		15	72
7	Nottingham Forest	46	18	18	10	59	46		13	72
8	Leeds United	46	17	19	10	84	74		10	70
9	Watford	46	17	16	13	80	67		13	67
10	Portsmouth	46	18	12	16	60	59		1	66
11	Hull City	46	16	17	13	50	46		4	65
12	Burnley	46	15	19	12	66	60		6	64
13	Leicester City	46	17	12	17	69	70		-1	63
14	Bristol City	46	16	13	17	59	64		-5	61
15	Ipswich Town	46	16	11	19	59	59		0	59
16	Middlesbrough	46	14	14	18	60	68		-8	56
17	Barnsley	46	13	14	19	53	67		-14	53
18	Coventry City	46	13	12	21	50	59		-9	51
19	Doncaster Rovers	46	12	13	21	58	78		-20	49
20	Derby County	46	12	12	22	57	69		-12	48
21	Crystal Palace	46	12	11	23	46	71		-25	47
22	Sheffield United	46	9	11	26	41	73		-32	38
23	Preston North End	46	8	13	25	53	80		-27	37
24	Scunthorpe United	46	10	4	32	36	87		-51	34

The most notable change was in the playoffs with Millwall moving ahead of Forest for the final spot.  My projection for the playoff final remains unchanged with Reading defeating Cardiff for the final Premiership slot.