Wednesday, June 8, 2011

MLS Week 12 Wrapup and SRS Rankings

Have to say it was a pretty dull weekend in the MLS.  In the nine matches played on Friday and Saturday only 10 goals were scored.  Three of the matches were 0-0 draws.  Admittedly several teams were missing their best players due to Gold Cup duty, but the fact that the backups could not step up and shine is an indication that the talent pool in the MLS is pretty shallow.

Despite the dullness of the competition the accuracy of my predictions was pretty sharp:

Predicted ScoreActual ScorePoints
Los Angeles 3D.C. United 1Los Angeles 0D.C. United 0-10
Toronto FC 2Kansas City 2Toronto FC 0Kansas City 0 20
New York 2Columbus 0New York 1Columbus 1-10
FC Dallas 1New England 0FC Dallas 1New England 0 30
Chicago 1Seattle 2Chicago 0Seattle 0-10
Colorado 1Philadelphia 1Colorado 1Philadelphia  1 30
Real Salt Lake 1Vancouver 0Real Salt Lake 2Vancouver 0 10
San Jose 1Houston 1San Jose 2Houston 0-10
Chivas USA 2Portland 1Chivas USA 1Portland 0 15
Total 65

For the weekend I predicted 5 of 9 outcomes and 2 scores correctly.  For the season my outcome accuracy is up to 39.7% and my score prediction accuracy is up to 8.8%.  Here are my predictions for the midweek games:

Predicted Score
Columbus 1Real Salt Lake 1
Kansas City 2Chicago 2

This is Kansas City's home debut in their new stadium.  Their 10-game road trip to start the season was not very successful with only one win and six points earned.  Will be interesting to see how they respond to some home cooking.

My latest SRS rankings after the jump:
Real Salt Lake0.8000.1010.9010.077
New York0.5380.0270.565-0.085
Los Angeles0.5000.0040.504-0.071
FC Dallas0.357-0.0110.3460.018
San Jose0.1670.0450.2120.188
Chivas USA0.154-0.0950.0590.040
D.C. United-0.3330.030-0.3030.061
New England-0.4620.001-0.461-0.017
Toronto FC-0.714-0.082-0.7970.004
Kansas City-0.700-0.116-0.816-0.006

Real Salt Lake remains on top.  The only change in the top 5 is LA dropping behind Philadelphia as a result of their scoreless draw against D.C. United, a match they were predicted to win.  Kansas City remains at the bottom despite having the weakest strength of schedule.  What this says to me is that Sporting KC is just a bad team, not just a team that has been handicapped by a lack of home games.  Their performance should improve somewhat at home, but I expect to see them at or near the bottom of the SRS rankings the rest of the season.

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