Thursday, July 7, 2011

Marginal Goal Analysis - New York Red Bulls

Following up on my analysis of Real Salt Lake, I decided to do a similar analysis for New York.  MLS released their Castrol Index today and Thierry Henry continues to hold the top spot.  I want to measure marginal goals for Henry and his teammates to see if I can get a similar result.  Here is the table for the Red Bulls.  This data includes last night's 5-0 stomping of Toronto FC:

Roy Miller170934231.7911.2110.5790.0060.0010.006
Joel Lindpere170533231.7421.2140.528-0.0420.004-0.046
Jan Gunnar Solli162933221.8231.2150.6080.0390.0050.034
Teemu Tainio154532221.8641.2820.5830.0800.0710.009
Thierry Henry124725141.8041.0100.7940.020-0.2000.220
Tim Ream117025131.9231.0000.9230.139-0.2110.349
Dwayne De Rosario111323191.8601.5360.3230.0760.326-0.250
Dane Richards109223141.8961.1540.7420.111-0.0570.168
Mehdi Ballouchy99919161.7121.4410.270-0.0720.231-0.303
Luke Rodgers94919121.8021.1380.6640.018-0.0720.090
Carlos Mendes88019151.9431.5340.4090.1590.324-0.165
Rafael Marquez8101581.6670.8890.778-0.118-0.3220.204


I've limited the list to show those players that have played roughly half of the total minutes over RBNY's 19 MLS matches.  New York's MVP according to my analysis is defender Tim Ream.  His MGD90 rating of 0.349 goals is equivalent to 11.9 goals in a 34-match season.  Ream has played in 13 matches and his team has allowed exactly one goal per match with him in the lineup.  In the 6 matches he has missed (due to playing for the US Men's team) RBNY allowed 1.67 goals per match.  Ream is also contributing to New York's league-leading offense with the second-best MGS90 score.

Thierry Henry scores pretty highly with and MGD90 of 0.220.  Although he leads the league in goals scored, his marginal contribution is pretty small on offense with an MGS90 of only 0.020.  New York is the highest scoring team in the league and Henry is reaping the benefits of that.  I suspect that if Henry played for another team he wouldn't be leading the league in goals.  Not saying he is bad or overrated, just pointing out that his value should not be measured just by his goals.  His MGA90 of -0.200 is just behind Ream's so this indicates that his presence on the field helps prevent opponents from scoring.

One thing I would like to point out is that this table shows why RBNY traded Dwayne De Rosario.  Considered a surprising move at the time, but DeRo's MGD90 was at -0.250 and he had the worst MGA90 at 0.326.  Compare his stats to Dane Richards.  They're both primarily midfielders who played about the same minutes.  When De Rosario was on the pitch the team gave up five more goals than when Richards was on the pitch.  So this was a good move by the Red Bulls.

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