Tuesday, July 12, 2011

MLS week 17 Recap

I did extremely well with my predictions this weekend:

Predicted Score
Actual Score
Points
Kansas City1Chivas USA 1Kansas City1Chivas USA 1 30
New York2D.C. United 1New York0D.C. United 1-10
Houston2Toronto FC 1Houston2Toronto FC 0 10
Real Salt Lake2FC Dallas 1Real Salt Lake2FC Dallas 0 10
Colorado1Vancouver 0Colorado2Vancouver 1 15
Los Angeles2Chicago 1Los Angeles2Chicago 1 30
San Jose1Philadelphia 1San Jose0Philadelphia 0 20
Portland1Seattle 1Portland2Seattle 3-10


That's 6 out of 8 matches where my model predicted the correct outcome.  Also predicted the correct final score in 2 matches.  For the month of July, my accuracy rate has been 60% on outcomes and 15% on scores.  Season-to-date those rates are 43% and 11% respectively.

Updated SRS ratings after the jump:
Team
MOV
SOS
SRS
Change
Real Salt Lake0.647-0.0260.6210.112
Los Angeles0.524-0.0340.4900.011
New York0.500-0.0180.4820.130
Seattle0.381-0.0240.357-0.012
FC Dallas0.368-0.0160.352-0.101
Philadelphia0.2780.0240.302-0.014
Columbus0.1110.0130.1240.039
San Jose0.0560.0680.123-0.116
Houston0.053-0.0010.0520.076
Chivas USA0.053-0.0190.0340.118
Colorado-0.050-0.032-0.0820.057
Kansas City-0.056-0.064-0.119-0.004
Chicago-0.2110.062-0.149-0.020
D.C. United-0.2940.080-0.2140.120
New England-0.4440.017-0.4270.006
Vancouver-0.450-0.051-0.501-0.075
Portland-0.5880.050-0.5390.002
Toronto FC-0.9050.005-0.899-0.254

Real Salt Lake continues their run at the top.  Their win over FC Dallas improved their rating quite a bit.  But, New York's 5-0 win had a much greater impact on their rating, so much that they are still most improved despite a 1-0 loss to D.C. United and their old friend DeRo.  Toronto dug a huge hole for themselves with two losses by a combined score of 7-0.  They're basically buried at the bottom of the table unless these guys can turn things around for them.

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