Monday, April 25, 2011

MLS Weekend Results and Updated SRS Rankings

Given that this was the first weekend of my MLS predictions and given that they were based on only a handful of games for each team, I didn't expect to do real well with them.  It turns out I did worse.  Here is the recap:

D.C United 0 New York 4 (-10 pts)
Colorado 0 Seattle 1 (-10 pts)
San Jose 1 Chivas USA 2 (-10 pts)
Toronto FC 1 Columbus 1 (-10 pts)
Vancouver 1 FC Dallas 2 (-10 pts)
New England 3 Kansas City 2 (-10 pts)
Chicago 1 Houston 1 (-10 pts)
Los Angeles 3 Portland 0 (+10 pts)

Of the eight matches played I only predicted the correct outcome in the LA/Portland match.  I also missed the fact that the Real Salt Lake/Philadelphia match was rescheduled to September 3 due to RSL's upcoming appearance in the CONCACAF Champions League final.  Based on the Barclays "I Know the Score" scoring system I ended up at -60 points for the week.  I expect that these predictions will become more accurate each week as we get more data.

After the jump I will have updated SRS rankings for the league.
Team   MOV   SOS   SRS  Change
Real Salt Lake1.7500.2562.0060.006
New York1.1670.2031.3690.519
Los Angeles0.3750.0480.4230.304
New England-0.1430.073-0.070-0.064
San Jose-0.5000.350-0.1500.010
D.C. United-0.5000.149-0.351-0.531
Chivas USA-0.167-0.297-0.4640.129
FC Dallas-0.167-0.361-0.5280.122
Kansas City-0.400-0.293-0.693-0.080
Toronto FC-0.429-0.348-0.7770.031

This early in the season the weekly fluctuations will be quite large.  New York's 4-0 thrashing of D.C. United demonstrates this as each team's rating changed by over half a point.  As the season progresses, these changes will start to smooth out.  Idle RSL remains on top (CONCACAF games are not included in these rankings).  Portland drops to the bottom after their 3-0 loss to LA.

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