MLS SRS Ratings and Season Projection

Here are the updated ratings through Week 18:



Team	MOV	SOS	SRS	Change
Real Salt Lake	0.647	-0.037	0.610	-0.011
Los Angeles	0.524	-0.035	0.489	-0.001
New York	0.476	-0.015	0.461	-0.021
Philadelphia	0.421	-0.001	0.420	0.118
Seattle	0.409	-0.021	0.388	0.031
FC Dallas	0.350	-0.026	0.324	-0.028
San Jose	0.053	0.086	0.139	0.016
Columbus	0.105	0.003	0.108	-0.016
Chivas USA	0.050	0.009	0.059	0.025
Houston	0.050	-0.011	0.039	-0.013
Colorado	-0.095	-0.008	-0.103	-0.021
Kansas City	-0.053	-0.064	-0.116	0.003
D.C. United	-0.278	0.098	-0.180	0.034
Chicago	-0.250	0.019	-0.231	-0.082
Portland	-0.500	0.038	-0.462	0.077
Vancouver	-0.450	-0.055	-0.505	-0.004
New England	-0.579	0.032	-0.547	-0.120
Toronto FC	-0.905	0.010	-0.895	0.004

The results of the New England/Philadelphia match moved both teams two spots in the rankings - Philadelphia up two to 4th and the Revs down two to 17th.  The Union's victory puts them on top in the Eastern Conference, two points clear of New York.

Here are the projected standings for the season:


East
Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Philadelphia	34	17	13	4	44	26	18	64
2	New York	34	12	17	5	54	37	17	53
3	Columbus	34	12	11	11	35	32	3	47
4	Kansas City	34	9	18	7	39	36	3	45
5	D.C. United	34	7	18	9	47	53	-6	39
6	Houston	34	6	19	9	36	37	-1	37
7	Chicago	34	3	22	9	35	43	-8	31
8	New England	34	3	13	18	28	48	-20	22
9	Toronto FC	34	3	12	19	27	59	-32	21
West
Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Los Angeles	34	16	16	2	44	26	18	64
2	Real Salt Lake	34	16	15	3	44	24	20	63
3	Seattle	34	14	16	4	47	35	12	58
4	FC Dallas	34	14	12	8	41	33	8	54
5	Chivas USA	34	8	18	8	41	39	2	42
6	San Jose	34	8	17	9	42	39	3	41
7	Colorado	34	8	17	9	39	42	-3	41
8	Portland	34	9	7	18	40	60	-20	34
9	Vancouver	34	3	15	16	32	48	-16	24

I'm projecting both Los Angeles and Philadelphia to finish at 64 points, but LA already owns the tiebreaker with a win and a draw against the Union in their two matches earlier this season.  Still projecting those two to meet for the MLS Cup which I think the Galaxy will win.