Thursday, March 17, 2011

League Championship Latest Projections

Through matches as of March 15th here is my latest projection for the final table:

1Queens Park Rangers462616473284594
2Norwich City462118774551981
3Cardiff City4623121171521981
4Swansea City462491361421981
8Nottingham Forest461721856401672
9Leeds United461720983731071
11Hull City461618125146566
12Leicester City461812167069166
14Ipswich Town461512195761-457
15Bristol City461413195867-955
18Coventry City461215195061-1151
19Doncaster Rovers461215196181-2051
20Crystal Palace461310234569-2449
21Derby County461211235665-947
22Scunthorpe United46106304081-4136
23Sheffield United46811274074-3435
24Preston North End46613275282-3031

Pretty amazing how close the race is for second place.  Three teams tied on points and goal differential means we go to the third tie-breaker, total goals scored.  Norwich carries this and is currently projected to return to the Premiership for the first time since 2005.  The Canaries average 1.649 goals per game which is the third best in the league.

For the playoff final, I'm still projecting Reading but this time over Watford.  Watford is interesting because they are so strong in away games.  They average 1.778 goals scored against teams that allow only 1.096 giving them a road offensive SRS of 0.682, best in the league.  Their overall away SRS based on MOV and SOS is 0.355 second only to QPR.  However, the final is considered a neutral site game and Reading is a stronger team overall with an SRS of 0.506 compared to Watford's 0.372.

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