Premier League Projection and SRS Rankings

On Tuesday Manchester City defeated Tottenham 1-0, clinching a spot in the Champions League next season.  City also dealt a blow to Tottenham's hopes of grabbing 5th place and the final European spot for the Premier League.  The Spurs now sit in 6th, 2 points behind surging Liverpool. 

This nicely sets up a showdown between these two teams on Sunday at Anfield.  If Liverpool wins, they clinch 5th place and will return to the Europa League next season. A draw or a Spurs victory means that spot will still be up for grabs on the final weekend.  Here is my latest projection for the league:

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA		GD	Pts
1	Manchester United	38	23	11	4	77	36		41	80
2	Chelsea	38	23	7	8	71	31		40	76
3	Arsenal	38	21	10	7	73	41		32	73
4	Manchester City	38	20	9	9	58	34		24	69
5	Liverpool	38	18	8	12	62	43		19	62
6	Tottenham Hotspur	38	15	14	9	54	48		6	59
7	Everton	38	13	15	10	53	47		6	54
8	Stoke City	38	14	7	17	48	47		1	49
9	Bolton Wanderers	38	12	12	14	52	52		0	48
10	Sunderland	38	12	12	14	44	55		-11	48
11	Newcastle United	38	12	11	15	54	55		-1	47
12	Fulham	38	10	16	12	47	43		4	46
13	Aston Villa	38	10	13	15	47	61		-14	43
14	West Bromwich Albion	38	11	10	17	54	73		-19	43
15	Blackburn Rovers	38	10	10	18	45	59		-14	40
16	Birmingham City	38	8	16	14	37	57		-20	40
17	Wolverhampton Wanderers	38	11	7	20	44	66		-22	40
18	Blackpool	38	9	10	19	51	76		-25	37
19	Wigan Athletic	38	7	16	15	38	63		-25	37
20	West Ham United	38	7	14	17	44	66		-22	35

Man United should clinch the title on Saturday at Blackburn.  I'm also expecting Liverpool to wrap-up 5th place against Tottenham.  The three teams currently in the relegation zone, Blackpool, Wigan and West Ham will stay there and return to the Championship.

After the jump my SRS rankings for the Premier League:

Team	MOV	SOS	SRS	Change
Manchester United	1.083	0.024	1.108	-0.005
Chelsea	1.028	-0.004	1.024	-0.015
Arsenal	0.833	0.005	0.838	-0.043
Manchester City	0.611	-0.002	0.609	-0.033
Liverpool	0.500	0.004	0.504	0.152
Tottenham Hotspur	0.167	-0.001	0.166	-0.048
Everton	0.167	-0.015	0.152	0.021
Fulham	0.111	-0.009	0.102	-0.004
Stoke City	0.056	0.001	0.056	0.060
Bolton Wanderers	-0.028	0.001	-0.027	-0.083
Newcastle United	-0.028	-0.047	-0.074	-0.052
Sunderland	-0.333	0.037	-0.296	-0.040
Aston Villa	-0.361	-0.036	-0.397	-0.044
Blackburn Rovers	-0.389	-0.013	-0.401	0.030
West Bromwich Albion	-0.444	-0.008	-0.453	-0.037
Birmingham City	-0.500	-0.008	-0.508	-0.022
Wolverhampton Wanderers	-0.583	0.024	-0.560	0.060
West Ham United	-0.639	0.029	-0.610	0.009
Wigan Athletic	-0.639	0.019	-0.620	0.025
Blackpool	-0.611	-0.031	-0.642	0.051

The change column is versus the last rankings I posted on 4/28.  Liverpool has really turned it around since they appointed Kenny Dalglish as manager.  They have now rewarded him with a 3-year contract and appear to be poised to return to Europe.  Bolton's drop in the ratings is due to 3 consecutive losses they have suffered.