Wednesday, March 30, 2011

English League Championship SRS Rankings

Today I will be presenting my SRS rankings for the Championship.  These serve as the foundation for my projections.  Please see my previous post for more detail on the SRS method.  For matches played through 3/19:

TeamMOVSOSSRS
Queens Park Rangers0.9740.0220.996
Reading0.4860.0550.542
Swansea City0.4470.0070.454
Norwich City0.395-0.0010.394
Cardiff City0.3680.0210.390
Watford0.368-0.0190.350
Nottingham Forest0.3420.0080.350
Millwall0.2890.0300.320
Leeds United0.237-0.0600.177
Burnley0.189-0.0340.155
Hull City0.105-0.0190.086
Portsmouth0.053-0.0030.050
Leicester City0.0000.0000.000
Ipswich Town-0.0260.012-0.014
Bristol City-0.1050.026-0.079
Middlesbrough-0.2160.032-0.184
Derby County-0.132-0.061-0.193
Coventry City-0.237-0.012-0.249
Barnsley-0.2890.011-0.278
Doncaster Rovers-0.4740.042-0.431
Crystal Palace-0.5790.034-0.545
Preston North End-0.622-0.002-0.624
Sheffield United-0.658-0.026-0.683
Scunthorpe United-0.921-0.046-0.967


The color coding represents which club is the best (green) and worst (red) in each category.  QPR is the best team overall and are sitting comfortably atop the table.  Reading is the second-best team in the rankings but is currently seventh in the league.  Part of the reason is that their strength of schedule is the hardest in the league thus far.  In other words they are a better team than what their table position suggests.

Let's take a look at the SRS rankings for remaining games:

TeamMOVSOSSRS
Queens Park Rangers1.141-0.1710.970
Reading0.880-0.3430.537
Cardiff City0.599-0.0940.505
Swansea City0.4030.0060.409
Hull City0.1150.2810.396
Watford0.3310.0190.350
Norwich City0.407-0.0860.321
Nottingham Forest0.359-0.0410.319
Millwall0.499-0.2930.206
Leicester City-0.0430.1910.148
Leeds United-0.2050.3310.126
Burnley0.0140.1070.121
Portsmouth0.0450.0310.076
Ipswich Town-0.015-0.049-0.064
Middlesbrough0.027-0.094-0.067
Derby County-0.5040.342-0.162
Barnsley-0.3010.080-0.221
Bristol City-0.139-0.131-0.270
Doncaster Rovers-0.188-0.101-0.290
Coventry City-0.3740.046-0.327
Sheffield United-0.7980.253-0.545
Crystal Palace-0.405-0.170-0.575
Preston North End-0.6920.017-0.674
Scunthorpe United-1.1860.262-0.924


Since these rankings are based on a sample size of 8 - 9 matches per club there is more variability in the results.  One thing that really stands out is Reading has the easiest remaining schedule in the league.  6 of their 9 remaining matches are against teams in the bottom half of the table including all 3 teams currently in the relegation zone.  I project that this easy schedule will allow Reading to climb into the playoffs and that they will win out and earn promotion to the Premiership.

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