English League Championship SRS Rankings

Today I will be presenting my SRS rankings for the Championship.  These serve as the foundation for my projections.  Please see my previous post for more detail on the SRS method.  For matches played through 3/19:

Team	MOV	SOS	SRS
Queens Park Rangers	0.974	0.022	0.996
Reading	0.486	0.055	0.542
Swansea City	0.447	0.007	0.454
Norwich City	0.395	-0.001	0.394
Cardiff City	0.368	0.021	0.390
Watford	0.368	-0.019	0.350
Nottingham Forest	0.342	0.008	0.350
Millwall	0.289	0.030	0.320
Leeds United	0.237	-0.060	0.177
Burnley	0.189	-0.034	0.155
Hull City	0.105	-0.019	0.086
Portsmouth	0.053	-0.003	0.050
Leicester City	0.000	0.000	0.000
Ipswich Town	-0.026	0.012	-0.014
Bristol City	-0.105	0.026	-0.079
Middlesbrough	-0.216	0.032	-0.184
Derby County	-0.132	-0.061	-0.193
Coventry City	-0.237	-0.012	-0.249
Barnsley	-0.289	0.011	-0.278
Doncaster Rovers	-0.474	0.042	-0.431
Crystal Palace	-0.579	0.034	-0.545
Preston North End	-0.622	-0.002	-0.624
Sheffield United	-0.658	-0.026	-0.683
Scunthorpe United	-0.921	-0.046	-0.967

The color coding represents which club is the best (green) and worst (red) in each category.  QPR is the best team overall and are sitting comfortably atop the table.  Reading is the second-best team in the rankings but is currently seventh in the league.  Part of the reason is that their strength of schedule is the hardest in the league thus far.  In other words they are a better team than what their table position suggests.

Let's take a look at the SRS rankings for remaining games:

Team	MOV	SOS	SRS
Queens Park Rangers	1.141	-0.171	0.970
Reading	0.880	-0.343	0.537
Cardiff City	0.599	-0.094	0.505
Swansea City	0.403	0.006	0.409
Hull City	0.115	0.281	0.396
Watford	0.331	0.019	0.350
Norwich City	0.407	-0.086	0.321
Nottingham Forest	0.359	-0.041	0.319
Millwall	0.499	-0.293	0.206
Leicester City	-0.043	0.191	0.148
Leeds United	-0.205	0.331	0.126
Burnley	0.014	0.107	0.121
Portsmouth	0.045	0.031	0.076
Ipswich Town	-0.015	-0.049	-0.064
Middlesbrough	0.027	-0.094	-0.067
Derby County	-0.504	0.342	-0.162
Barnsley	-0.301	0.080	-0.221
Bristol City	-0.139	-0.131	-0.270
Doncaster Rovers	-0.188	-0.101	-0.290
Coventry City	-0.374	0.046	-0.327
Sheffield United	-0.798	0.253	-0.545
Crystal Palace	-0.405	-0.170	-0.575
Preston North End	-0.692	0.017	-0.674
Scunthorpe United	-1.186	0.262	-0.924

Since these rankings are based on a sample size of 8 - 9 matches per club there is more variability in the results.  One thing that really stands out is Reading has the easiest remaining schedule in the league.  6 of their 9 remaining matches are against teams in the bottom half of the table including all 3 teams currently in the relegation zone.  I project that this easy schedule will allow Reading to climb into the playoffs and that they will win out and earn promotion to the Premiership.