Monday, May 16, 2011

English League Championship Final SRS Rankings and Playoff Predictions

Here are the final rankings for the Championship:

Queens Park Rangers0.8480.0000.848
Swansea City0.5870.0000.587
Norwich City0.5430.0000.543
Cardiff City0.4780.0000.478
Nottingham Forest0.4130.0000.413
Leeds United0.2390.0000.239
Leicester City0.1090.0000.109
Hull City0.0220.0000.022
Bristol City-0.0650.000-0.065
Coventry City-0.0870.000-0.087
Ipswich Town-0.1300.000-0.130
Derby County-0.2830.000-0.283
Crystal Palace-0.5430.000-0.543
Preston North End-0.5430.000-0.543
Doncaster Rovers-0.5650.000-0.565
Sheffield United-0.7610.000-0.761
Scunthorpe United-0.9570.000-0.957

You will notice that the strength of schedule (SOS) for all teams is now zero.  This is because every team has played every other team an equal number of times (twice).  In general, SOS will converge towards zero as the season progresses.  Also, whenever a league has a balanced schedule, like the Championship, it will also converge to zero.

After the jump, my playoff predictions:

For this week's games here are my predictions:

Nottingham Forest 2 Swansea City 1
Reading 2 Cardiff City 2

Despite predicting a loss in the first match, I predict that Swansea will come back to defeat Forest and carry through to the final.  I'm picking Reading to defeat Cardiff in aggregate and face the Swans in the final.  Based on the SRS rankings above, I am now projecting Swansea to defeat Reading in the Playoff final.

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