Monday, April 4, 2011

Premier League Projection 4/4 - Manchester United by a nose

The results of this past weekend will have a huge impact on the projected Premier League table.  Here is my revised projection:

1Manchester United382312383404381
4Manchester City382011761332871
5Tottenham Hotspur381711105143862
7Bolton Wanderers381214125353050
10Newcastle United381211155858047
11Aston Villa381210164963-1446
13Stoke City38136194448-445
14Blackburn Rovers381011174862-1441
15West Bromwich Albion381010185370-1740
16Wolverhampton Wanderers38117204564-1940
17Birmingham City38815153654-1839
18West Ham United38814164866-1838
20Wigan Athletic38616163562-2734

I am now projecting that Man United will hang on to win the title by a thread over Arsenal.  The season will hinge on the showdown between these two teams on May 1st at the Emirates.  In all of my previous projections I expected that Arsenal would win this match based on United's poor road performance and Arsenal's strong home performance.  However, I'm now predicting a draw between these two.  That additional point for United combined with the 4 points Arsenal loses (2 for the United match and 2 for the draw with Blackburn this weekend) brings both teams to 81 points overall.  The first tiebreaker is goal differential and I project United to finish 5 goals better that Arsenal for the season.  Sit tight folks, it's gonna be pretty tense all the way to the finish!

At the other end of the table I have Birmingham pulling clear of relegation by virtue of their victory over Bolton.  West Ham's loss to United, although predicted, was bad enough to hurt their projected performance in home matches so they lose two points and drop back to the danger zone.

No comments:

Post a Comment