Monday, May 16, 2011

Championship Playoff Wrapup

Two stalemates to kickoff the Championship playoffs last week as both matches ended in 0-0 draws.  Swansea actually overcame a red card in the first minute of the match to hold off Nottingham.  Despite being a man down for almost the entire match, the Swans still had several opportunities to score.  In the other match Cardiff held Reading to a draw despite losing their captain Craig Bellamy to injury in the first-half.

Both Welsh teams will be at home for the second legs and have to be considered favorites for meeting in an all-Welsh final.  As you can see from the tables below, Swansea is actually the best home team in the league with a home SRS of 1.303 which is actually better than champions QPR.  Forest's Road SRS is -0.088 so I am confident that Swansea will win at home this week and move on to the final.  I'm not quite as confident about Cardiff's chances as Reading has the second best road SRS in the league.  The SRS ratings still give a slight edge to Cardiff so I'm projecting they will meet the Swans in the final at Wembley.

Home SRSAway SRS
Swansea City1.303Queens Park Rangers0.476
Queens Park Rangers1.215Reading0.347
Nottingham Forest0.900Norwich City0.346
Leicester City0.911Cardiff City0.274
Reading0.770Hull City-0.046
Norwich City0.737Watford-0.046
Millwall0.737Ipswich Town-0.089
Cardiff City0.695Leeds United-0.089
Leeds United0.563Nottingham Forest-0.088
Burnley0.433Swansea City-0.109

If we do have a Swansea vs Cardiff final, I project that Swansea will emerge victorious and earn their first-ever promotion to the Premier League.

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