Monday, May 16, 2011

MLS Weekend Wrapup and SRS Rankings

Last weekend's scoring drought is past us.  This weekend featured 24 goals in 9 matches or 2.67 goals per game which is above the league average of 2.38 goals/game.  The drought ended in more ways than one as the Cascadia Derby between Seattle and Portland ended up in a rain-soaked 1-1 draw.  Other highlights of the weekend included a hat trick by Chivas' Justin Braun which led them to a shocking 3-2 upset of the Red Bulls in New York.  Landon Donavan continued his scoring streak by netting two goals in LA's 4-1 victory over Sporting KC. 

Here is a recap of my predictions for the weekend:

Predicted ScoreActual ScorePoints
Toronto FC1Chicago  1Toronto FC2Chicago 2 20
New England1Vancouver 1New England1Vancouver 0-10
D.C. United1Colorado 1D.C. United1Colorado 1 30
FC Dallas0Philadelphia 0FC Dallas2Philadelphia 0-10
Real Salt Lake2Houston 1Real Salt Lake0Houston 0-10
San Jose1Columbus 1San Jose3Columbus 0-10
Los Angeles2Kansas City 1Los Angeles4Kansas City 1 10
Seattle2Portland  0Seattle1Portland 1-10
New York1Chivas USA 0New York2Chivas USA 3-10

My total score for the week was zero points.  I predicted 3 of 9 outcomes and 1 of 9 final scores correctly.  Since I started my predictions in late April I have scored -50 points in 38 matches or -1.32/match.  Of the 38 matches I've had 13 correct outcomes (34.2%) and 2 correct final scores (5.3%). 

My SRS rankings are listed after the jump
Real Salt Lake1.0000.1831.1830.007
New York0.7780.0300.808-0.276
Los Angeles0.4170.0200.4360.132
Chivas USA0.222-0.0200.2020.170
FC Dallas0.300-0.1500.1500.282
San Jose-0.1110.1670.0560.349
New England-0.300-0.059-0.3590.097
D.C. United-0.5000.059-0.4410.035
Toronto FC-0.545-0.077-0.6220.089
Kansas City-0.857-0.041-0.898-0.381

Because margin of victory is the biggest driver of SRS it is perhaps too easily influenced by blowouts especially early in the season.  Case in point was San Jose's 3-0 thrashing of Columbus which led to these two teams having the largest changes in SRS.  Real Salt Lake remains on top despite their recent struggles.  This is due to their defense which has only allowed 2 goals in 7 matches so far this season. 

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