MLS Scoring Drought - Another Theory

I have written about this before and Steve Davis of SI.com recently proposed other theories as to why the MLS is scoring at a record-low level.  Here is another - the league has gotten bigger than the talent pool.  This table shows goals per match by season relative to the number of teams in the league:



Season	Total   Goals	Matches	Goals   per   Match	Teams
1996	539	160	3.37	10
1997	522	160	3.26	10
1998	685	192	3.57	12
1999	549	192	2.86	12
2000	612	192	3.19	12
2001	518	158	3.28	12
2002	421	140	3.01	10
2003	433	150	2.89	10
2004	392	150	2.61	10
2005	551	192	2.87	12
2006	503	192	2.62	12
2007	519	195	2.66	13
2008	590	210	2.81	14
2009	569	225	2.53	15
2010	590	240	2.46	16
2011	437	182	2.40	18

The league has expanded seven times since it's formation.  The first four expansions (1998, 2005, 2007 and 2008) each resulted in an increase in goals per match.  However, the last three have resulted in decreased goals per match.  I think this is because the talent pool has become diluted.  The league is now 50% larger than it was five years ago and, let's face it, they are not drawing those additional players from the Premier League or La Liga or Serie A.

Here are the average goals scored by size of the league:



Teams	Goals  per Match
10	3.04
12	3.06
13	2.66
14	2.81
15	2.53
16	2.46
18	2.40

So if the MLS wants to see more offense they should consider shrinking the league.  I think a 12-team league would hit the sweet spot.  Unfortunately the league will be adding a 19th team next season in Montreal.  I expect to see even more 0-0 draws next season :(